AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[tireman4]

Ed Brandon died today...

[Rip76]

RIP Mr. Brandon.
I met him at the station in 5th grade.

Any concern with that front that just slid off the coast of La?

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... 4-48-0-100


I don’t know what the pressures, and shear is like out there.

[texoz]

Sorry to hear about Ed's passing. I grew up watching his weather reports. Here's a link to ABC's look back on him.

https://abc13.com/society/houston-abc13 ... d/4029317/

[mcheer23]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday, and then move westward at around 15 mph for the
next several days thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[jasons2k]

Just went for a walk. We really need rain. The underbrush and smaller trees are starting to wilt pretty bad. The soil moisture is gone so whatever benefit from the wetting rains of last spring and last month have pretty much been wiped away now. Back to square one...

[ticka1]

Its hot out. All the rain we got last night has dried up.

[texoz]

Tomorrow will be day 44 of 100 degree temps in Austin. The 20th century average was 12. For the last decade it's been around 30+.

Any rain in the long range forecast??

[srainhoutx]

Ed Brandon died today...

The last time I saw Ed was at Dan Meador's Celebrations of Life in early September 2010. Ed was a fixture in Houston TV during Alicia and beyond. The Houston Weather World is a tight knit community. Rest peacefully Ed!

[Texaspirate11]

Thats really sad about Ed...I used to watch him RIP

[Texaspirate11]

Prayer s up for Hawaii
This Lane Cane looks horrible
There's not enough shelters either...

[jeff.harrington]

Hot and dry or rainy and muggy, either way I still feel excited and loving this month.

[Katdaddy]

A few light showers SE of Houston along Galveston Bay this morning. Another mostly sunny and hot day ahead for SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Heat Advisory for the southern and central counties of SE TX until 900pm this evening.

Combination of afternoon temperatures nearing 100 and dewpoints not mixing out much will result heat index values of 106-110 between about 200pm and 600pm. Interestingly some sort of weak boundary has moved SSW across the SE portions of the area early this morning that resulted in a few showers and thunderstorms developing around Galveston Bay. This feature may produce a few additional storms this afternoon as it moves down the coast toward Matagorda Bay.

Upper air pattern will be changing over the next 48 hours with the center of the upper level ridge that is currently over TX moving ENE into the SE US. The shifting of this feature slightly northward will allow a deep easterly flow to develop this weekend into all of next week along the southern flank of the ridge. This will allow tropical moisture and weak tropical waves to move across the area. Will begin to raise rain chances and lower afternoon temperatures and Sunday and continue with a 30-50% rain chance through each day of next week for afternoon storms along the seabreeze front. With an upper level pattern in place that is currently being forecast it will be important to monitor any tropical waves that could potentially move into the Gulf of Mexico during this time.

Tropics:
A tropical wave will be moving off the coast of Africa over the next day and then westward across the tropical Atlantic. Forecast models are not showing much development with this wave, but it is interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF models show this feature around Cuba or south FL in about 10 days where the wave axis sharpens some. Just something to keep an eye on over the next week.

Large scale global models continue to show an increasingly favorable pattern starting in about 7 days across much of the Atlantic basin as the sinking and dusty air of late from Africa decreases and is replaced with large scale rising air which should promote much thunderstorms activity over the tropics. A majority of the tropical storms and hurricanes that form in the Atlantic basin develop after August 20th, so we are still early in the season and this should serve as a reminder to remained prepared during this time of year.

[mcheer23]

I will be in either Honolulu or Maui providing updates and videos.

[Ounce]

I will be in either Honolulu or Maui providing updates and videos.

Good luck.

Should be an interesting landing on the runway.

[stormlover]

CMC, GFS, Euro, Navy all show something towards florida straits,ridge is stout also

[Belmer]

CMC, GFS, Euro, Navy all show something towards florida straits,ridge is stout also

Agree, I am seeing a lot of signs that the ridge out east, off of Florida, looks to really strengthen by late next week, which would seem to steer anything coming through the Caribbean or southern Bahamas to basically make a straight entrance into the Gulf of Mexico. As Jeff alluded to, less dust coming off of Africa = less sinking air. Central and eastern Atlantic looks like it is going to get really juicy in the next 7-10 days.

Despite the tropics possibly ticking up in activity, our pattern looks to be changing as well in the medium and long range with a buckle in the jet stream as troughs start digging in the central and eastern US and deep moisture from the the southern Caribbean and even in the Pacific off the coast of South America riding up through southern Mexico, possibly lifting into the BoC.

Signs of September are definitely showing!

[stormlover]

yep belmer!!! not trying to scare anyone but could be lke a rita type track

[sambucol]

With the ridge in place, is there a good chance that IF the blob forms and enters the GOM, would it most likely Texas bound?

[stormlover]

yeah good chance but long ways out.