Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[Portastorm]

Paul, I'm with you on this ... King Euro may be losing his crown.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is arriving just in time...

[Portastorm]

Geez, it didn't take long for Alex's core convection to start firing up again did it?!

[Paul]

HWRF is north of brownsville....around CC...?

[Scott747]

HWRF is north of brownsville....around CC...?

Probably closer to Port Mansfield.

[Scott747]

When I chased Dolly we almost ran up to intercept her at Port Mansfield after spending the day in Port Isabel.

[Scott747]

18z GFDL -

Finally getting some consistency.

[Hardcoreweather]

BP is evacuating rigs in the gulf they just said on TWC...Also said, Landfall anywhere from Houston south

[Portastorm]

When I chased Dolly we almost ran up to intercept her at Port Mansfield after spending the day in Port Isabel.

I loved y"alls video of that storm. You and Josh did great work!

[Scott747]

When I chased Dolly we almost ran up to intercept her at Port Mansfield after spending the day in Port Isabel.

I loved y"alls video of that storm. You and Josh did great work!

Thanks Michael.

Unfortunately I have a business trip set up to Lake Havasu for a bikini and t shirt line, that I will probably miss this chase unless it were to threaten the upper Texas coast as a major.

[Mr. T]

18z GFDL -

Finally getting some consistency.

A little further north from the 12z run... Looks like the HWRF

It will be interesting to see in what direction tonight's model runs move

[srainhoutx]

Low pressures for a storm that has just emerged off the Coast...

178
URNT15 KNHC 272343
AF304 0401A ALEX HDOB 19 20100627
233400 1947N 09110W 9242 00664 9974 +206 +134 073028 029 027 000 00
233430 1945N 09110W 9247 00657 9974 +199 +136 069029 030 030 002 00
233500 1944N 09110W 9254 00650 9971 +209 +136 074029 029 028 000 00
233530 1942N 09110W 9250 00653 9970 +205 +136 076029 029 027 000 00
233600 1940N 09110W 9248 00654 9969 +205 +138 076031 032 028 000 00
233630 1939N 09110W 9249 00651 9967 +205 +139 080032 032 028 002 00
233700 1937N 09111W 9250 00649 9965 +206 +141 083032 032 029 001 00
233730 1935N 09111W 9249 00647 9963 +209 +142 082034 034 029 000 00
233800 1934N 09111W 9249 00646 9961 +207 +144 080033 034 030 000 00
233830 1932N 09111W 9245 00646 9959 +205 +145 078034 035 031 001 03
233900 1931N 09111W 9247 00644 9956 +205 +146 074035 036 031 000 00
233930 1929N 09111W 9248 00639 9954 +202 +147 074037 038 032 000 00
234000 1927N 09111W 9249 00636 9951 +201 +147 073038 039 035 001 00
234030 1926N 09110W 9243 00633 9944 +190 +144 071040 041 035 004 00
234100 1924N 09110W 9253 00620 9940 +190 +141 071040 042 036 006 00
234130 1922N 09110W 9254 00617 9935 +199 +138 080033 036 036 004 00
234200 1921N 09110W 9248 00618 9929 +208 +136 075028 029 035 003 00
234230 1919N 09110W 9253 00610 9925 +210 +135 070024 025 033 006 03
234300 1917N 09110W 9250 00608 9921 +210 +136 061022 023 030 008 00
234330 1916N 09109W 9244 00612 9916 +216 +137 050020 022 029 006 03
$$

[Paul]

992mb is crazy.....

[Portastorm]

When Pacific storm Darby has a 992mb pressure, its winds were 70 mph. Not suggesting that for Alex but that the pressure is awfully low.

[Paul]

they are not even at the center yet...sheesh...

[tireman4]

Agreed Porta. I was thinking strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane status with pressures like that. Hummm

[Paul]

IMO, this is going to increase rapidly to a hurricane faster then any model had predicted.

[srainhoutx]

Possible center...waiting on vortex message...

23:44:30Z 19.233N 91.117W 923.6 mb
(~ 27.27 inHg) 615 meters
(~ 2,018 feet) 991.0 mb
(~ 29.26 inHg)

[Andrew]

Maybe the GFS wasn't so crazy after all with the trof:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

[Mr. T]

That pressure may be suspect... We'll see