July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

[srainhoutx]

Continued changes brewing in the Medium Range with an unusually deep trough encompassing the United States East of the Rockies. This upper air pattern appears to continue to be re unforced with strong disturbances rounding the Eastern periphery of the Western Heat Ridge as well as storm systems dropping S of Canada. Fingers crossed rain chances increase as these semi cut off upper troughs strengthen well into next week.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook also suggests that big trough across the Eastern 2/3rd's of the United States may well bring changes to our sensible weather forecasts in the days ahead. Stay Tuned!

[CrashTestDummy]

Looks like our chances for rain in the Houston area has now passed for the day. Looks like another opportunity, though, coming this weekend, and into next week.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance indicate no significant changes regarding the late weekend/early next week 'Cold Front' and rain chances. A vigorous shortwave upper trough with a rather strong cold front should be pushing into the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday with an attending cold front. Moisture appears to pool across the Region with increasing PW's and an onshore flow ahead of the front with heat of the showers/storms beginning to pop on Monday. Rain chances increase on Tuesday as the front approaches SE Texas. The front looks to be along of just S of the I-10 Corridor next Wednesday morning with a wave of low pressure sliding ENE along the frontal boundary.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.AVIATION...
Patchy dense fog will affect KLBX for another hour or so before
dissipating. Some cirrus will move into the area later this
morning but both the NAM and the GFS develop a layer of SCT-BKN
clouds between 6000-8000 feet by afternoon. Will maintain
scattered clouds for the afternoon at all TAF sites. Skies are
expected to clear between 00-02z. Could again get some fog early
Thursday morning. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

UPDATE...
Quick update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for Colorado, Wharton,
Jackson, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties where observations show
dense fog has developed. Webcams along Interstate 10 do not
indicate dense fog has spread quite that far north this morning,
but will continue monitoring trends for a possible eastward
expansion of the advisory. Updated products out.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies and light winds this morning have allowed for
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 70s in several locations
outside of the Houston metro and a few lucky folks may even see
some upper 60s before the morning is out. This radiational cooling
has also contributed to some patchy fog developing west and
southwest of Houston and some locally dense fog will be possible
in low-lying or sheltered locations through sunrise.

The upper ridge that has been over the Desert Southwest the past
few days begins to wobble west towards California today and
slightly lower mid-level heights across the region, combined with
drier air behind yesterday`s boundary, should result in highs in
the upper 80s to upper 90s today with heat index values near or
only slightly warmer than the air temperature. GOES total
precipitable water vapor imagery shows there is some lingering
moisture south and west of a Brenham to Galveston line early this
morning and as convective temperatures in the lower to mid 90s are
reached later today may see an isolated shower or two develop
along the coast or closer to Matagorda Bay. Any shower that
develops is expected to quickly dissipate with loss of heating and
expect Wednesday night to be fairly similar to tonight with light
winds and mostly clear skies again producing some light fog and
the potential for inland low temperatures in the lower 70s.

Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, but an isolated
shower or two will be possible along the land breeze over the
waters at night and along the sea breeze as it moves inland during
the day. Highs tomorrow through Sunday are expected to range in
the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to lower 90s along the
coast. Expect morning lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Will have to
keep an eye on the role cloud cover will play during this time as
MOS guidance has a fairly significant temperature spread (highs
4-5 degrees different) during this time. The European is
attempting to bring highs above 100 back into the Brazos Valley
Thursday and Friday with limited cloud cover and the GFS has highs
in the mid to upper 90s with widespread lower clouds. Have
trended towards a blend of the two during this time as a result of
the spread, but given how well the GFS has performed with sky
cover lately the forecast may trend closer towards this solution
in later issuances.

A pattern change is on the way for the beginning of next week as
an upper trough amplifies over the lower Mississippi River,
resulting in increasing rain chances for the region Monday into
the mid-week period as a cold front pushes into the region. This
may lower high temperatures into the lower to mid 90s by the end
of the month.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over Missouri will produce a light and generally
offshore flow today. The high will weaken today and gradually push
east and weak low pressure will develop over Central Texas on
Thursday. This will allow a weak onshore wind to return the
coastal waters Thursday night and Friday. The pressure gradient
will tighten a bit over the weekend with a generally light to
moderate onshore flow and seas less than 3 feet. All in all, just
a typical summer pattern of a weak land breeze at night with a
weak sea breeze in the afternoon with a slight increase of wind
speeds overnight. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 72 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 74 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 89 82 92 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Inland Brazoria...Inland Jackson...
Inland Matagorda...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[DoctorMu]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.AVIATION...
Patchy dense fog will affect KLBX for another hour or so before
dissipating. Some cirrus will move into the area later this
morning but both the NAM and the GFS develop a layer of SCT-BKN
clouds between 6000-8000 feet by afternoon. Will maintain
scattered clouds for the afternoon at all TAF sites. Skies are
expected to clear between 00-02z. Could again get some fog early
Thursday morning. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

UPDATE...
Quick update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for Colorado, Wharton,
Jackson, Brazoria, and Matagorda counties where observations show
dense fog has developed. Webcams along Interstate 10 do not
indicate dense fog has spread quite that far north this morning,
but will continue monitoring trends for a possible eastward
expansion of the advisory. Updated products out.

Huffman

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies and light winds this morning have allowed for
temperatures to fall into the low to mid 70s in several locations
outside of the Houston metro and a few lucky folks may even see
some upper 60s before the morning is out. This radiational cooling
has also contributed to some patchy fog developing west and
southwest of Houston and some locally dense fog will be possible
in low-lying or sheltered locations through sunrise.

The upper ridge that has been over the Desert Southwest the past
few days begins to wobble west towards California today and
slightly lower mid-level heights across the region, combined with
drier air behind yesterday`s boundary, should result in highs in
the upper 80s to upper 90s today with heat index values near or
only slightly warmer than the air temperature. GOES total
precipitable water vapor imagery shows there is some lingering
moisture south and west of a Brenham to Galveston line early this
morning and as convective temperatures in the lower to mid 90s are
reached later today may see an isolated shower or two develop
along the coast or closer to Matagorda Bay. Any shower that
develops is expected to quickly dissipate with loss of heating and
expect Wednesday night to be fairly similar to tonight with light
winds and mostly clear skies again producing some light fog and
the potential for inland low temperatures in the lower 70s.

Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend, but an isolated
shower or two will be possible along the land breeze over the
waters at night and along the sea breeze as it moves inland during
the day. Highs tomorrow through Sunday are expected to range in
the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to lower 90s along the
coast. Expect morning lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Will have to
keep an eye on the role cloud cover will play during this time as
MOS guidance has a fairly significant temperature spread (highs
4-5 degrees different) during this time. The European is
attempting to bring highs above 100 back into the Brazos Valley
Thursday and Friday with limited cloud cover and the GFS has highs
in the mid to upper 90s with widespread lower clouds. Have
trended towards a blend of the two during this time as a result of
the spread, but given how well the GFS has performed with sky
cover lately the forecast may trend closer towards this solution
in later issuances.

A pattern change is on the way for the beginning of next week as
an upper trough amplifies over the lower Mississippi River,
resulting in increasing rain chances for the region Monday into
the mid-week period as a cold front pushes into the region. This
may lower high temperatures into the lower to mid 90s by the end
of the month.

Huffman

MARINE...
High pressure over Missouri will produce a light and generally
offshore flow today. The high will weaken today and gradually push
east and weak low pressure will develop over Central Texas on
Thursday. This will allow a weak onshore wind to return the
coastal waters Thursday night and Friday. The pressure gradient
will tighten a bit over the weekend with a generally light to
moderate onshore flow and seas less than 3 feet. All in all, just
a typical summer pattern of a weak land breeze at night with a
weak sea breeze in the afternoon with a slight increase of wind
speeds overnight. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 72 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 74 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 79 89 82 92 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Inland Brazoria...Inland Jackson...
Inland Matagorda...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

The dew point is way down today (63°F), and clouds are knocking back temps to the low to mid 90s. lol Feels comfortable!

While temps will increase late in the week, the Death Ridge will continue to loosen its grip, resulting in weather over the next week that's a bit more like early September/end of August. 20-30% chance of rain Sunday and Monday.

Will keep an eye on the Gulf just in case the washed out front draws any activity.

It's certainly an improvement over the past week or two!

[DoctorMu]

GFS is suggesting scattered showers over the next two weeks with peaks Monday and Aug 6-10. Canadian and Ensemble in general agreement.

Hopefully, we can spread the wealth re: rain accumulation!

[jasons2k]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

[Electric Lizard]

The overnight guidance indicate no significant changes regarding the late weekend/early next week 'Cold Front' and rain chances. A vigorous shortwave upper trough with a rather strong cold front should be pushing into the Central/Southern Plains on Sunday with an attending cold front. Moisture appears to pool across the Region with increasing PW's and an onshore flow ahead of the front with heat of the showers/storms beginning to pop on Monday. Rain chances increase on Tuesday as the front approaches SE Texas. The front looks to be along of just S of the I-10 Corridor next Wednesday morning with a wave of low pressure sliding ENE along the frontal boundary.

I'm very much looking forward to a change out of this hot and dry pattern. I'm not looking forward to a front pushing a low into the hot Gulf.

[GBinGrimes]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

As Texas summers and droughts go, this summer has not been too bad. A week, or a couple, of ballpark 100 degree temps and little to no rain sure beats the heck out of what we have experienced in the recent past. If we start the slow slide into fall in just a week or 2, instead of late September, that is a true blessing.

Well wishes to you on the Florida plan but man...you can get slammed by a hurricane from multiple directions. Good ol' SE Texas works for me yet I am still fairly envious of our weather brother in Montgomery who has his plans for Montana. Nothing like the Rocky Mountains.

[Texaspirate11]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

hahahahah what makess Florida "cooler" than the Great State of Texas?
Got friends all over Florida, and they complaim like us!!!!
good luck though

[texoz]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

As Texas summers and droughts go, this summer has not been too bad. A week, or a couple, of ballpark 100 degree temps and little to no rain sure beats the heck out of what we have experienced in the recent past. If we start the slow slide into fall in just a week or 2, instead of late September, that is a true blessing.

Well wishes to you on the Florida plan but man...you can get slammed by a hurricane from multiple directions. Good ol' SE Texas works for me yet I am still fairly envious of our weather brother in Montgomery who has his plans for Montana. Nothing like the Rocky Mountains.

This June was tied for 3rd warmest on record for Texas, and had the warmest minimum on record.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide ... eyear=2000

[jasons2k]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

hahahahah what makess Florida "cooler" than the Great State of Texas?
Got friends all over Florida, and they complaim like us!!!!
good luck though

Depends where in Florida. I’m a Florida native. I go back at least once a year since we moved to visit relatives. The heat there is a lot more tolerable for me. Tampa has never hit 100 degrees. Ever. I’ll take near 90F and humid for 5 months and 70’s in January over the 100-degree heat and air quality advisories we experience here. I love the summertime Florida “rain machine” cycle with afternoon sea-breeze storms. You don’t go for weeks and weeks without rain.

One reason why I moved to Houston from Dallas was to get away from the constant 100-degree heat and the colder winters up there & to be closer to the coast. I didn’t move far enough...

Plus, I’m a beach bum. I love being by the water and Galveston just doesn’t do it for me. I miss the white sandy beaches and clear waters of Pinellas and Sarasota beaches. The brown sand and water here - no thanks. The last time I took my boys to the beach in Galveston I didn’t even get in. So I’m done.

As for hurricanes, the last major to hit the Tampa area was 1921. Hard to get a hit there with the angle of the coast. I’ll take my chances. No place is perfect, but the Suncoast region is “home” for me. It’s hard to explain, but there is an itch you get when you see one of those blazing Gulf sunsets and realize there is more to life than the concrete jungle.

I’m not going any time soon. I have to finish my Master’s first so I’m here for the next 3 years.

[DoctorMu]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

hahahahah what makess Florida "cooler" than the Great State of Texas?
Got friends all over Florida, and they complaim like us!!!!
good luck though

I lived in Gainesville for awhile. The Brazos Valley is much hotter in the summer. The hottest part of the year is early June in Florida, then the prevailing easterlies hit, and it's an afternoon shower nearly ever day. Evenings are incredibly pleasant.

TBF the mornings are similar, but in the blazing Texas afternoon, it just keeps getting hotter and hotter and hotter and hotter. Today was 102°F IMBY about 6:30 pm.

One saving grace about the lack of rain here, that plays havoc on any kind of gardening. Sometimes after a front shift, things will desiccate and the dew point lowers, but the other side of that double edged sword is, of course, fire danger.

...and the advantage of living near or on the clear Gulf or Atlantic Coast, Sure, South Beach is loads of fun, but I'd pick St. Augustine. The average high in St. Augustine in August is a mere 90°F with a sea breeze.

[jasons2k]

St. Augustine is a beautiful place. The sand is pink-ish, similar to some of the beaches in the Bahamas. South Beach is a fun place to visit but I'd never want to live down in SE Florida....way too crowded, congested, and expensive. I prefer the Gulf Coast around the Tampa and Sarasota areas...more relaxed, better beaches, and the folks are more from the Midwest as opposed to Jersey.

Back on topic: looks like no more rain until August. I'll finish July with over 8 inches of rain but now it's starting to dry out pretty fast. It doesn't take long in this oppressive heat. I'm looking forward to August, which sounds crazy, but true, given the forecast.

[FunNestle]

I come here with hope that August will pick up the rains that July has left behind.

[TexasBreeze]

The stagnant airmass of late should turn more northerly with a weak front coming down next week. There are indications that there will be a more easterly/se flow into coastal TX to allow increased gulf moisture and wave activity to make it in longer term. Getting more into hurricane season means to watch those easterly waves and troughs very closely too. The Bermuda high may flex its muscle and with the Sonoran heat ridge shifting west into CA/AZ that will allow for a nice weakness to set up shop to rid the 100° air/dryness currently around...

[FunNestle]

I can't stand these Texas summers and droughts any more.

I'm done. Throwing in the towel. I'm moving to the Great State of Florida as soon as possible....which in reality will be about 3 years from now. But I have a plan and a goal

Notice that when weather patterns across the country are in true summer form, with the jet stream locked up in Canada and zero westerly influence down to the lower-latitudes, Texas gets just as reliable summer rains as Florida/SE US, even stealing the show quite often. Exactly what was seen during the heavy rains of mid June and early July this year.

But that true summer pattern just hasn't been as dominant this decade compared to the 2000s. The issue being the constant high amplitude patterns of the jet stream over North America that have prevailed since after Hurricane Ike, which brings the western ridge and eastern trough ordeal. That eastern trough prevents the high pressure from extending meridionally in a way that allows disturbances to sweep from the east, then west into Texas. Instead, the high pressure bends SE, then ends up bring subsidence and drought into Texas. The SE/Florida still get rain, but from the weakness aloft/mid-latitude peturbances, rather than true tropical air masses. That dip in the jet-stream brings westerly influence down to low-latitudes in summer...which means that dry Texas/rainy SE patterns are not actually true summer patterns, but rather more of spring/fall-lite that just so happens to be showing up in summer. This same trough over the Eastern US is also responsible for bringing down harsher cold snaps during winter. Yep, you heard right: the same factor responsible for arctic cold in Texas during winter is also responsible for summer droughts over the state.

Texas is better off in the tropics, to escape the woes of this volatile continent.

[FunNestle]

Depends where in Florida. I’m a Florida native. I go back at least once a year since we moved to visit relatives. The heat there is a lot more tolerable for me. Tampa has never hit 100 degrees. Ever. I’ll take near 90F and humid for 5 months and 70’s in January over the 100-degree heat and air quality advisories we experience here. I love the summertime Florida “rain machine” cycle with afternoon sea-breeze storms. You don’t go for weeks and weeks without rain.

I agree. However, I wonder if that sea-breeze cycle would still hold under subsident 590+ heights. Given the patterns over North America, much of the rainfall disparity between Florida and Texas during summer would really just be embellished and exaggerated, due to the false summer pattern caused by the trough.

Plus, I’m a beach bum. I love being by the water and Galveston just doesn’t do it for me. I miss the white sandy beaches and clear waters of Pinellas and Sarasota beaches. The brown sand and water here - no thanks. The last time I took my boys to the beach in Galveston I didn’t even get in. So I’m done.

I agree only when it comes to the water color, obviously.

But sand comes in too wide variety of colors (white, brown, black, red, pink, green, etc). Even in the context of brown sand ... Rockaway Beach seems to be doing fine. Hard-packed? The racers love Daytona Beach for that.

As for hurricanes, the last major to hit the Tampa area was 1921. Hard to get a hit there with the angle of the coast. I’ll take my chances.

Hurricanes afford way too much prep time for one to be too worried about them, in all fairness.

[Cromagnum]

As for hurricanes, the last major to hit the Tampa area was 1921. Hard to get a hit there with the angle of the coast. I
Hurricanes afford way too much prep time for one to be too worried about them, in all fairness.

Until the forecast gets it wrong and it suddenly heads towards you.