My cordial apology to anyone who may be reading my posts. My intention was not to mislead anyone.Mr. T wrote:It's not moving due west. Last two center fixes:sleetstorm wrote:Tropical Storm Alex is still traveling nearly due west. Time is gradually running out for that thing to move closer to Texas and Louisiana.
18.9N 90.7W
19.2N 90.9W
That's a .3N increase compared to a .2W increase.
Lets not just spit out misleading information here without evidence
Agreed, Scott....Scott747 wrote:As I mentioned earlier the model shift wasn't dramatic enough from the 6z to 12z runs so the slight adjustment isn't surprising. Never did see a 12z parallel GFS run so I'll be quite interested in what it shows on the 18z. They won' openly admit it but I still think after reading a few other thoughts from some red taggers on Eastern that the NHC gives more weight to the parallel version despite some of the odd runs. The operational is fixing to be canned anyways.
So we actually might have three shifts in the next few runs. Either some consistency within the group or a overall shift between the two camps to a northern (Mid Texas coast/La.) or southern (Lower Texas coast/Mex) solution. We're entering a close enough time frame to seriously look at the implications for the possible effects for our local area.
Probably correct on both accounts singlemom.singlemom wrote: I'm guessing that, once again, *tomorrow* will be the telling day or will it be another nail biter tonight?
G-IV, P-3 and C-130's are tasked...Scott747 wrote:
Steve. Have they scheduled any NOAA flights?
Fill er up.redfish1 wrote:alex is starting his NW movement so i am almost convinced to go and fill the car up tomorrow....what do you think??
Paul, I seem to remember the same thing about Claudette. I have a better memory of Humberto, where the anticipated landfall shifted from Brownsville to Galveston in the course of a day. By the time it made landfall at Beaumont/Port Arthur, it was a minimal Cat 1.Paul wrote:while we wait for the new model runs....wasnt Claudette coming up from the BOC and we kept thinking it should turn around CC but ended up around Matagorda? I dont remember things to well...
Stormrider wrote:Paul, I seem to remember the same thing about Claudette. I have a better memory of Humberto, where the anticipated landfall shifted from Brownsville to Galveston in the course of a day. By the time it made landfall at Beaumont/Port Arthur, it was a minimal Cat 1.Paul wrote:while we wait for the new model runs....wasnt Claudette coming up from the BOC and we kept thinking it should turn around CC but ended up around Matagorda? I dont remember things to well...
No it isn't:Mr. T wrote:18z GFS is going to Brownsville
You can notice the difference in the upper levels by day 2 between the 12z and 18z runs...
NOUS74 KEHU 271900
ADASRH
ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS
200 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010
TO: ALL SOUTHERN REGION OFFICES
FROM: SOUTHERN REGION HEADQUARTERS REGIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER
SUBJECT: SPECIAL SIX HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS REQUESTED SPECIAL SIX-HOURLY UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE FOLLOWING STATIONS BEGINNING AT 18Z MONDAY
IN SUPPORT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX.
ABQ...EPZ...AMA...MAF...DRT...OUN...FWD...CRP...BRO...LZK...SHV...
JAN...LCH...SIL
SPECIAL SIX HOURLY UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.