JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[FreeportTX35]

Yeah this is been pretty uneventful for Houston area doesn't look like we're going to get much of anything from this. Not that I'm looking for a flood here I just want some rain

[srainhoutx]

The day is young and with a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the next 48 hours and a large band of tropical downpours with thunder that has set up S of Galveston and a Flash Flood Watch hoisted, I suspect some in Metro Houston/SE Texas could see a lot of rainfall. Just sayin...

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors down the Coast in the Corpus Christi WFO...

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
724 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...24 HOUR RAINFALL REPORTS FOR SOUTH TEXAS ENDING AT 7 AM TUESDAY...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date                            

...Texas...

...Aransas County...
Rockport 1.3 WSW             2.97 in   0700 AM 06/19                        
6 SSE Austwell               2.46 in   0615 AM 06/19                        
1 SSW Fulton                 2.21 in   0713 AM 06/19                        
Aransas County Airport       2.19 in   0653 AM 06/19                        

...Bee County...
3 SW Beeville                2.76 in   0655 AM 06/19                        

...Calhoun County...
Port Lavaca                  2.41 in   0655 AM 06/19                        

...Goliad County...
4 NW Goliad                  3.32 in   0600 AM 06/19                        
Coleto Creek At Arnold Road  2.30 in   0645 AM 06/19                        
5 ENE Weesatche              2.00 in   0700 AM 06/19                        

...Jim Wells County...
Alice International Arpt     6.36 in   0653 AM 06/19                        
Alice                        5.56 in   0703 AM 06/19                        
Orange Grove 4.3 SW          3.98 in   0700 AM 06/19                        

...Live Oak County...
2 ESE Dinero                 2.67 in   0700 AM 06/19                        

...Nueces County...
5 W Corpus Christi           5.51 in   0709 AM 06/19                        
10 WSW Portland              3.33 in   0500 AM 06/19                        
Port Aransas                 3.08 in   0655 AM 06/19                        
Corpus Christi Nws           2.77 in   0556 AM 06/19                        
Corpus Christi               2.36 in   0651 AM 06/19                        
3 W Flour Bluff              2.33 in   0600 AM 06/19                        
Corpus Christi Nas           2.08 in   0656 AM 06/19                        
Chapman Ranch                2.05 in   0646 AM 06/19                        

...Refugio County...
San Antonio River Near Mcfad 3.41 in   0615 AM 06/19                        
Austwell                     2.17 in   0700 AM 06/19                        
3 NNE Tivoli                 2.12 in   0645 AM 06/19                        

...Victoria County...
6 ESE Fannin                 3.24 in   0640 AM 06/19                        
4 ENE Victoria               3.13 in   0704 AM 06/19                        
3 NW Victoria                2.64 in   0703 AM 06/19                        
2 SW Victoria                2.25 in   0615 AM 06/19                        
3 S Telferner                2.11 in   0700 AM 06/19                        
2 NNW Victoria               2.09 in   0700 AM 06/19                        

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers 
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

HART

[djmike]

Us here in beaumont cant catch a break. Another heavy band just passed dumping another 2” in top of our 7” wegot yesterday. Nearing 10” now. Feeders are flooded again and roads and underpasses being closed off again now. If youare in the Beaumont area or traveling to Beaumont, use caution. FFWARN just extended till 1145am. Stay safe everyone.

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
LAC023-TXC245-361-191615-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0026.180619T1223Z-180619T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
723 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northwestern Cameron Parish in southwestern Louisiana...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Central Orange County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1115 AM CDT.

* At 718 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain falling across the warned area. One to three inches of
rain have fallen so far this morning in addition to the four to
six inches that fell across parts of the warned area yesterday
afternoon and evening.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Vidor,
Bridge City, Hamshire, Central Gardens, Sabine Pass, Johnsons
Bayou, China, Rose City, Port Acres, Orangefield, Fannett, La
Belle, Southeast Texas Regional Airport and Sea Rim State Park.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible in
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 3010 9436 3012 9430 3019 9421 3014 9389
3002 9375 2975 9365 2970 9384 2980 9391
2983 9380 2992 9376 2997 9376 3000 9379
2999 9386 2997 9384 2981 9395 2968 9385
2967 9405 2956 9435

$$

Jones

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch until 700pm this evening for the coastal and second inland tier counties over SE TX.

Mid level low pressure system centered near Alice, TX (west of Corpus) has focused very heavy rainfall this morning across the coastal bend and inland south TX. Deep and persistent feed of moisture over extreme SE TX into Jefferson County has resulted in 4-7 inches over rainfall over that area since yesterday afternoon. While bands of showers have moved inland over SE TX over the last 24-hours rainfall totals have been manageable especially over Harris County.

Additional bands of rainfall are likely today, but as long as they continue to move and do not train over any area for a sustained period of time rainfall accumulations will likely remain in the 1-3 inch range with locally higher amounts. Most of the area can handle this amount of rainfall with the main threat continuing to be the potential for street flooding.

Mid level low drifts toward SW TX and NE MX tonight into Wednesday all though the models may be too fast in moving this feature, just based on how poorly they have handled this feature and rainfall amounts over the last several days. Drier air over the central Gulf of Mexico will likely begin to arrive from the ESE on Wednesday helping to reduce rain chances. There is still some potential later tonight into early Wednesday that banding of heavy rainfall could focus near/around Matagorda Bay, but this is uncertain.

Forecast should return to more normal summer conditions Thursday-Saturday with afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible and temperatures rising back into the 90’s for highs.

[unome]

link to most recent images for buoycam by Corpus Christi

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/buoycam.php?station=42020

station info http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

[JDsGN]

The day is young and with a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for the next 48 hours and a large band of tropical downpours with thunder that has set up S of Galveston and a Flash Flood Watch hoisted, I suspect some in Metro Houston/SE Texas could see a lot of rainfall. Just sayin...

I'm confused why these QPF models continue to not adjust for the current storm track? It has the Golden Triangle in a 1.5-2.5 gradient over the next few days but it looks like based on the radar they will receive that in the next few hours.

[jasons2k]

You would think with the position of the low, the band pounding the Golden Triangle would curve and shift to the NW, but it's not, it's just an endless pipeline feeding to the NNE...

[djmike]

Yup we are getting pounded here in beaumont. Many areas now nearing 9-10” since yesterday. Its a straight pipeline from the gulf. I too am amazed this train hasn’t shifted westward yet. Still am not believing the rainfall models or qpf. Not one had beaumont progged for this bullseye. Its nowcasting!

[unome]

link to most recent images for buoycam by Corpus Christi

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/buoycam.php?station=42020

station info http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020

I missed this info on the site:

As of 2100z, 06/18/2018, the buoy at station 42020 has gone adrift. Data will be restored during our next service visit to this location.

[srainhoutx]

Both GOES E and long range HGX WD 88 suggest the offshore training storms are beginning to slowly shift to the W and NW around the MCV in South Texas. If this trend continues, someone between Jefferson County and Matagorda County could see a LOT of rainfall.

[unome]

Both GOES E and long range HGX WD 88 suggest the offshore training storms are beginning to slowly shift to the W and NW around the MCV in South Texas. If this trend continues, someone between Jefferson County and Matagorda County could see a LOT of rainfall.

add labels to basemap & animate - definitely soggy

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... 5263157895

[tireman4]

Jim Cantore....

[sau27]

Just a thought here, and maybe I'm off base, but is it possible our area is caught in a layer of subsidence between the band in far east Texas and the activity along the mid/south Texas coast?

[Cromagnum]

That QPF map is a joke. The areas on the perimeter are getting all the rain and the bullseyed areas aren't getting any. Throw those models in the trash.

[snowman65]

This storm deserves a name.....Harvey, Jr, perhaps. Seems like we are getting all the rain here, not where it was forecasted to be.

[FreeportTX35]

That QPF map is a joke. The areas on the perimeter are getting all the rain and the bullseyed areas aren't getting any. Throw those models in the trash.

Agreed!

[jasons2k]

The greatest convergence is still in the eastern side of the training band, basically parallel to the Sabine river. You can see it on the loops - the individual cells make an attempt to move to the northwest, but the convergence line just holds steady, at least for the last several hours and up to now.

[djmike]

That's what Ive been saying. QPF (So far) has been way way WAY off. Here in Beaumont, it has been raining heavily still for the past 4 hrs. Yesterday I dumped over 7" out of my rain gauge to measure todays rain. Ive already gained another 3" this morning and plenty more coming. 10" so far and Beaumont was not bulls eyed for this amount at any time. Most the models ever showed for us was 3-4" over 4 days.

[tireman4]

Remember what Srain and Brooks have been preaching. With tropical systems, it is hard for the models to really zero in on rainfall amounts. That has been really hamstringing the mets on this system