JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[FreeportTX35]

I work around navigation Boulevard around Southeast Houston around second and third ward anybody know how bad this place floods I work 2nd shift from 2:30 to 10:30 p.m. at night trying to avoid high water if I can see it lol

[djmike]

12z NAM really painting some rain from San Luis Pass / Galveston up the 45 Corridor.

Can you please post a graphic for us to see?

[ccbluewater]

12z NAM really painting some rain from San Luis Pass / Galveston up the 45 Corridor.

Can you please post a graphic for us to see?

[srainhoutx]

Midday briefing from Jeff:

Mid level low pressure system just offshore of the middle TX coast will likely result in increasing rainfall coverage this afternoon and evening over the area.

Thus far banding and training of rainfall has been confined to extreme SE Harris County over the Baytown area where 2.76 inches has fallen in the last 1.5 hours. This shows the potential of this air mass to produce intense short term rainfall totals if storms train for more than a few hours.

Will need to watch trend closely this afternoon as short range models continue to indicate significant training bands over the region. Thus far it appears the model guidance has been more aggressive than what is actually happening, but this could be a function of the system being slower to move ashore. Additionally, the short term guidance continues to have varying locations of the intense rainfall banding this afternoon and evening which is keeping forecast confidence on the low side.

Additional rainfall amounts over the next 2-3 days will likely average 4-6 inches over Harris County with isolated higher totals upwards of 8-10 inches possible. Heavier rainfall totals of 10-12 inches look to focus near Matagorda Bay.

Based on the latest rainfall guidance rises on creeks and bayous are likely and some creeks and bayous could approach bankfull if the rainfall is concentrated in a short period of time.

[BlueJay]

We are mostly sunny and dry for the day, so far.

[JDsGN]

We are mostly sunny and dry for the day, so far.

Same here in Katy. Most of the storms seem to be hitting a wall once they get towards I45 and try and come west.

[Rip76]

Looked like some dry air for sure.

[djmike]

Man we are getting pounded here in Beaumont!! Continuous training straight from the gulf!!

[djmike]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING JUST ISSUED FOR THE BEAUMONT / JEFFERSON COUNTY AREA

[djmike]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
217 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 213 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a band of heavy rain across
the warned area. 1 to 3 inches of rain have fallen over the past
hour across parts of Jefferson County, generally to the west and
southwest of Port Arthur. Flash flooding is expected to begin
shortly as additional heavy rain continues to train over these
areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nome, Hamshire, China, Fannett, La Belle,
Port Acres, Southeast Texas Regional Airport and Sea Rim State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

[srainhoutx]

Close inspection of GOES 16 multichannel operations suggest the mid level low has remained stationary throughout the day and is basically located East of Corpus Christ and S of Matagorda Bay. Very heavy training storms showing banding extend well S into the Gulf of Mexico to well East of Tampico as well as well S and E of the Louisiana Offshore waters. New shower/storms are developing S of Galveston Bay and Brazoria County moving generally N to NE toward the Coast. The heaviest rainfall is located well ENE of the mid level low in far SE Texas and SW Louisiana.

As has been stated many times, this is a tricky and complicated forecast challenge due to little movement of the mid level feature. Storms may begin to contract this evening/overnight a bit closer to the mid level feature meaning those training storms in Beaumont could be in our neighborhoods as the hours go on. There is no evidence to support anything at the surface forming anywhere along the Texas Coast at this time. Radar and GOES East will be our best tools to use throughout the rest of the weather event. The various models may offer clues, but so far I see to much run to run volatility even in the very short fuse mesoscale models to offer any consequential support for what the sensible weather will be 12, 24, 36 and even 48 hours from now...in my opinion.

The afternoon Updated 5 Day QPF chart is almost identical to the morning issuance.

The attachment 06182018 1950Z 5 Day QPF p120i.gif is no longer available

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook for tomorrow and Wednesday remain at a Moderate Risk as well.

[djmike]

Pitch black here in Beaumont! This is just not letting up! Reports of flooded roads and rescue calls are starting to come in around the city. Lightning is pretty bad too. Wasn't expecting that. Stay safe everyone. If this system has stalled as stated above by srain, this could be a long long week ahead. Turn around don't drown!!!

[sau27]

The "dryer" air to the northwest looks to be moistening up finally. I'm not ready to declare this over as I have seen one too many nocturnal rain events from these moisture rich systems.

[tireman4]

Radar Update 3:35 pm

[tireman4]

Srain alluded to this in his AFD


000
FXUS64 KHGX 182032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
332 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Bands of rain with embedded heavier showers have been moving mainly
to the west and northwest across the area today. So far, locally
heavy rainfall has happened in a very small area (2 to 3 inches
along the Harris/Chambers county line) where some brief training
did set up. Currently, more intense and prolonged training just to
our east in/around the Beaumont area has resulting in a flash
flood warning. The airmass in place supports bands similar to this
one to possibly set up across parts of Southeast Texas over the
next several days as the slow moving Gulf system lingers near the
Texas coast. Models are still having a very very very very very
difficult time indicating where this could possibly happen, with
different locations and amounts evident on nearly every run that
comes out. But conditions still appear favorable for additional
rounds of storms over the next several days in and around our
area, and locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. Through
Thursday, rainfall totals could range from 3 to 5 inches in/around
our northern counties to around 10 inches or even higher closer to
the Matagorda Bay area. If these totals are spread out over time
with rain rates on the low side, the area could handle things
well. However, any intense rainfall in a short period of time
could lead to flooding issues. Based on what has fallen so far
today along with the possibility that rains could be spread out
over several days, highish flash flood guidance values and the
lack of saturated soils, we will not be issuing a Flash Flood
Watch at this time. A watch and/or warnings will be needed if any
banding/training of heavy rainfall does develop. If the rainfall
totals previously mentioned do happen, we`ll likely end up having
some river/bayou/creek issues too. Just because your location has
gotten little to no rainfall yet does not mean you will stay dry
over the next several days. So keep up with the latest forecasts
during this ongoing potentially heavy rain event as things could
rapidly change. 42
&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving, weakly organized tropical wave continues to drift
over the western Gulf of Mexico. This has brought increased winds
and seas as well as widespread showers and thunderstorms to the
region as advertised. The Small Craft Advisory will continue
through the day Tuesday, and has been extended into Wednesday
morning for the offshore waters as seas will by slow to subside.

Tides are expected to remain 1 to 1.5 feet above astronomical levels
today, with high tide at the Galveston Bay Entrance peaking a little
over 3 feet above MLLW at high tide. Given impacts to vulnerable
locations, a coastal flood advisory continues along the Bolivar
Peninsula. Strong rip currents will remain a threat on Gulf facing
beaches for at least another day.

Evans

[sau27]

That's a lot of very's

[sau27]

Looks like a band is starting to form right across the city from SE to NW. We'll see if its just a temporary flare or of energy is translating back to the SW.

[srainhoutx]

At least we all seem to be on the same page regarding the sensible weather forecast and the challenges it offers...

[tireman4]

At we all seem to be on the same page regarding the sensible weather forecast and the challenges it offers...

Well yeah, you all are pro mets ..you are supposed to be on the same page..ha ha..., no seriously, I think you all are on the same page on this system and what it "can or could" do.

[Belmer]

Nice convective band starting to come ashore in Galveston. Looks like it should ride up I-45 through downtown within the next hour or two. Lot of stratiform behind that... we'll need to keep an eye to see if deeper convection develops and follows the initial rainband coming in right now.