ENSO Updates

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
stormlover
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:21 am
Location: Lumberton TX
Contact:

thanks for the response!!!
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 8222089216

Ben Noll

Verified account

@BenNollWeather
Follow Follow @BenNollWeather
More
Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:

-Weak or moderate #ElNiño favored by Nov.
-Atlantic ACE at 70% of normal.
-Anomalous warmth this summer focused over NW & NE U.S.
-Transitions to a warm fall in the NE.
-Caribbean drought potential.
-Hawaii tropical cyclone risk.

Image

EURO is forecasting weak to moderate El Nino.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation... ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. All other regions cooled.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

srainhoutx wrote:The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation... ;)
I usually take long term forecasts with a grain of salt.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed.
stormlover
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:21 am
Location: Lumberton TX
Contact:

what does all regions warmed mean?
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19611
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

stormlover wrote:what does all regions warmed mean?
Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.
Attachments
05152018 El Nino M 4xfSL.jpg
05152018 El Nino M 4xfSL.jpg (126.54 KiB) Viewed 4195 times
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
stormlover
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:21 am
Location: Lumberton TX
Contact:

thank you
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 55 guests