ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed except Region 4, which cooled.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Let’s go neutral!

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Weeks' ENSO
Niño 4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 remains the same. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO (2/12/2018)
Niño 4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.9ºC
Niño 3 -1.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/s ... clnk&gl=us

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3.4 is the same, while Region 3 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.0ºC
Niño 3 -1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -1.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 4 warmed. Region 3.4 cooled. Region 1+2 is very volatile due to South America, which can affect ocean temperature.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is the same. Looks like La Nina is fading.

[Ptarmigan]

Unusually warm Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures help to arrest development of El Niño in 2014
https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/gtmba/feature ... lopment-el

A warm Indian Ocean played a role in slowing El Nino development in 2014. The Indian Ocean plays a huge role in world's weather.

[Ptarmigan]

IRI ENSO Forecast
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/ ... -cpc_plume

They have a 40% chance El Nino will develop by the end of the year.

Climate Prediction Center-El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

CPC is predicting that La Nina will fade by this Spring.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

La Niña ends; ENSO Outlook set to INACTIVE
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

Code: Select all

The weak 2017-18 La Niña that has been active since December 2017, has ended. All atmospheric and oceanic indices are now at neutral levels, with most model outlooks suggesting neutral-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and early winter. The ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE.

An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months.

Bureau climatologists routinely monitor the tropical Pacific for any signs of developing ENSO events, regardless of the ENSO Outlook status. Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up, linked below.

The Australian BOM has declared La Nina over.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled, while Region 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 remains the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 cooled. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 remains the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 cooled.

[stormlover]

srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?

[srainhoutx]

srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?

Neutral looks more likely than El Nino for Hurricane Season. Watching carefully the potential for 2 very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves crossing the Atlantic Basin in May. I'll address that in our 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussion Topic in our Hurricane Central Section over the next week or so. It's almost that time of year when all eyes turn to the Tropics.