JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[Andrew]

We are now in the HRRR experimental range. Along with Tech-WRF and some other mesoscale models, we could see moisture lingering around the region until late afternoon/overnight on Tuesday. Furthermore, mesoscale models including the NAM, Tech-WRF, and HRRR indicate most of SE Texas may not get above freezing on Tuesday for more than a couple hours.

[stormlover]

What euro show

[Andrew]

What euro show

EURO show heavier snow across central and East/Southeast Texas but doesn't make it as far south. Shows a dusting of ice/snow I-10 and north.

[srainhoutx]

The WFR experimental suggests widespread 2 inch amounts with some isolated totals near or above 3 inches of sleet/snow on top of some freezing rain from early Tuesday morning. That HRRRX image that Andrew posted is 'hinting' some potential banding features from hour 30 near Austin/College Station moving SE toward our Northern and Western suburbs right at the beginning of the Tuesday afternoon rush hour. Place yourself in the forecasting chair right now and what would your call be? Winter Weather Advisory versus a Winter Storm Watch? I'd go with the stronger wording due to the potential impacts to travel during the day, afternoon and evening. But that's just me.

[WeatherDuck]

I see that the NWS has recently issued a Winter Storm Warning for the counties just north and east of my location.

Is it just a matter of time for a warning to be issued for the Austin area?

[srainhoutx]

A closer inspection of the 12km 06Z NAM suggests temperatures in the mid to upper 20' Tuesday afternoon with wintry precipitation falling. Wind chill reading suggest feel like temperatures could be in the low teens, possibly in the single digit territory.

[Andrew]

Both 06Z for GFS and NAM are a lot more aggressive with coverage across all of the CWA. Looking like confidence is slowly building and at least an advisory should be issued.

[Andrew]

A closer inspection of the 12km 06Z NAM suggests temperatures in the mid to upper 20' Tuesday afternoon with wintry precipitation falling. Wind chill reading suggest feel like temperatures could be in the low teens, possibly in the single digit territory.

Especially with wind gusts of 20-25mph across the region on Tuesday (especially to the west and northwest).

[Heat Miser]

I agree with Srain on the stronger wording, especially if temps are what's suggested. It only takes a tiny bit of freezing rain, sleet/snow on roadways to create a traveling nightmare, and a dangerous one at that. I get off duty at 0800 hours Tuesday morning and don't have to return until 0000 Friday. Thankfully, it appears most of my travels will be safe and I won't have to be out in that madness. I hope employers are paying very close attention to the weather and non-essential employees are given the day off. Of course it's too early to make that call.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for all of SE Texas including Coastal tier of Counties. I suspect if trends continue to support increased precipitation and much colder temperatures with the 12Z package of guidance, an Upgrade may be forthcoming.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Warning issued for all of the NWS San Antonio/Austin forecast Area. Also HGX mentioning Upgrade to Winter Storm Watch/Warning is possible later in the day or tonight.

[Cromagnum]

Great. I am training visitors from out of country this week and it is looking like we will easily lose 1-2 days out of only 5 that I have.

[ticka1]

scenarios i am seeing show thta south of i=10 will only see cold rain?

[cperk]

scenarios i am seeing show thta south of i=10 will only see cold rain?

Care to elaborate because the 6OZ GFS shows something different.

[Andrew]

scenarios i am seeing show thta south of i=10 will only see cold rain?

Models tonight are showing moisture may stick around long enough to even reach the coast. More north you get though, better your chances are.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wooooo, within 24 hours of a Winter Storm and temps in the 20s!

Those short term models are making my mouth water.

[snowman65]

Wooooo, within 24 hours of a Winter Storm and temps in the 20s!

Those short term models are making my mouth water.

What are you seeing? Anything look interesting for the golden triangle?

[ticka1]

scenarios i am seeing show thta south of i=10 will only see cold rain?

Care to elaborate because the 6OZ GFS shows something different.

not arguing but what i was seeing from my undeucated eye is cold rain- is it different?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Wooooo, within 24 hours of a Winter Storm and temps in the 20s!

Those short term models are making my mouth water.

What are you seeing? Anything look interesting for the golden triangle?

Few of the short term models show a dusting of snow and ice.

[stormlover]

No, nam,Gfs,euro, all shows frozen Precip