JANUARY 2018 - Seasonal WX Week/Pacific Front Saturday

[BlueJay]

Maybe January 2018 will bring some interesting weather events that will tickle the fancy of the winter-loving folks. We'll see...

[snowman65]

GFS has a good snow snow event for us Jan 2 and 3rd....yeah, I know...I know...lol

[DoctorMu]

GFS, Canadian, and Ensemble have some very chilly area around the area in the New Year. They remain on the horizon for now...

[snowman65]

If it's beyond 3 days forget about it...

[DoctorMu]

Here's 7 instead of 12 days ahead on the latest (18Z) GFS run.






Ensemble run as subfreezing temps in College Station for 48+ hours

[TexasMetBlake]

Latest 00z GFS shows temps into the mid teens (16°) close to Houston a week from tomorrow. I'm more inclined to pay attention now because the Euro and Canadian are also showing powerhouse highs moving into the US. If we hit teens, it'll be the first time since 1989. It's also showing highs in the mid 20s for next Monday. Yikes! This one bears watching for sure.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah, it's getting more real. GFS has a 1063 high over northern Nebraska. And a southern snow. Not sure if we'll see any, but Louisiana, MS, Alabama, GA, Tennessee, KY, VA, and North Carolina might.

12° in Baton Rouge. Close to their Jan record of 9°.

[snowman65]

I'll buy into it if it's still showing up at the end of this week.

[harp]

Holy moly!!!! The 12Z GFS. It just won't back down!

[harp]

The CMC is even worse.....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Holy moly!!!! The 12Z GFS. It just won't back down!

Canadian caved to the GFS too... curious what the 12z Euro shows. Our ULL near Hawaii will tell the story.

NAM is siding with the GFS as well as we look upstream.


Canadian has Pensacola at 8 degrees and Miami in the low 40s.

[harp]

Holy moly!!!! The 12Z GFS. It just won't back down!

Canadian caved to the GFS too... curious what the 12z Euro shows. Our ULL near Hawaii will tell the story.

NAM is siding with the GFS as well as we look upstream.


Canadian has Pensacola at 8 degrees and Miami in the low 40s.

ULL near Hawaii?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Holy moly!!!! The 12Z GFS. It just won't back down!

Canadian caved to the GFS too... curious what the 12z Euro shows. Our ULL near Hawaii will tell the story.

NAM is siding with the GFS as well as we look upstream.


Canadian has Pensacola at 8 degrees and Miami in the low 40s.

ULL near Hawaii?

[harp]

How will that influence our weather here along the Gulf Coast?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

How will that influence our weather here along the Gulf Coast?

Difference between GFS/CMC/NAM and the Euro is how our feature NE of Hawaii plays out. It affects the trajectory of the cold air.

[harp]

Ok. Well, the CMC is now on board with the GFS. The NAM doesn't go out that far to really tell.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Ok. Well, the CMC is now on board with the GFS. The NAM doesn't go out that far to really tell.

In the near term the Upper air pattern on the NAM sides with a colder solution in Canada and it is pumping out GFS like Highs in WCAN.

[srainhoutx]

Being in the 144 hour range I'd keep an eye on the trends as the week wears on. Not sure I believe just yet that we will see 16F at IAH and 2 to 4 days of below freezing, but seeing how short of a timeframe we are talking about and the fact the ECMWF has been faster with the strong cold front arriving late Friday night/early Saturday morning versus the slower GFS solution as well as the known fact that the models struggle with dense cold airmasses, it's worth monitoring. Also we have not had snow on the ground across the Plains as we do know and the very cold air is already in place across Canada and the Northern United States.

We'll need to monitor the precipitation trends as we get a couple of days out or around Thursday/Friday. Our noisy sub tropical jet isn't just going to disappear that if we see a disturbance riding out of Mexico New Years Eve, all bets are off regarding want our sensible weather may bring.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Euro moved a bit towards the GFS

[sambucol]

GFS colder?