jasons wrote:I know I may be in the minority, but I am enjoying this warm SE Texas weather. It's beautiful outside, what else can I say....days like today make me glad I don't live up north.
Yeah I’m the exact opposite. This weather is disgusting in December. This weather is “nice” if it happened in August.
srainhoutx wrote:Winter officially starts tomorrow and we already have seen a couple of inches of snow. We still have at least 2 to 3 months of cold weather potential.
Just took a peak at the shorter range versions of the NAM (32km/12km/3km). Look at the 500mb vorticity charts at hour 54. Those closed 500mb charts look somewhat like what wxman57 posted a week ago when the GFS showed that vort near El Paso and had totally disappeared from the recent week worth of Global models. Remember is never wise to fully trust those model beyond a couple of day particularly in Winter.
12202017 12Z 32km NAM 54 nam_z500_vort_us_19.png
12202017 12Z 12km NAM 54 namconus_z500_vort_us_43.png
12202017 12Z 3km NAM 54 nam3km_z500_vort_us_55.png
Also the morning Day 8+ Analogs:
12202017 Day 8+ Analogs untitled.png
Some of those analog dates got cold like in 1962, 1063, 1983, and 1989.
[quote="jasons"]I know I may be in the minority, but I am enjoying this warm SE Texas weather. It's beautiful outside, what else can I say....days like today make me glad I don't live up north. [/quote
Jason I agree with you
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Might be a silly question but could La Nina be a reason for the models to be acting like they are on crack or something? They can't seem to get 2 runs in a row to look the same.....
snowman65 wrote:Might be a silly question but could La Nina be a reason for the models to be acting like they are on crack or something? They can't seem to get 2 runs in a row to look the same.....
My hunch is the Global Models are having fits with a very persistent low pressure gyre situated over Eurasia and portions of Eastern Siberia. The models have tried to break that pattern down and as of yet, it is holding strong. That is just one of many factors including tropical forcing across the Pacific as well as the MJO and lack of any meaningful cold air across our Source Regions. Looking at the teleconnection indices, there continues to be some "hints" of a somewhat favorable pattern for delivering cold air down South and there are a couple of Tropical Storms brewing in the Western Pacific, but time will tell of the Indices and the impacts of those tropical disturbance will even have a meaningful impact in the week ahead. Meanwhile expect freezing temperatures mainly along and North of I-10 Christmas Eve night into Christmas Morning with slightly below climatology temperature wise Sunday through next Tuesday. At least it will 'feel' a little like Christmas.
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FYI: GOES 16 now known as GOES East is back up on College of DuPage. Good to see these awesome images again after it's transition to a new position. GOES 17 is due to launch early next year.
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