December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

[wxman57]

Man, the models have gone schizo.

12z reverts back to a fetch of moisture over Texas and snow in Brownsville on Christmas Day

I'm sure that will happen.

The 12Z what? GFS and Canadian have no precip and cold temps Christmas day. Canadian has a low in the mid 20s, the GFS a low in the mid 30s. No moisture in Texas with either of them. European model isn't in through the 25th yet.

[tireman4]

Please use this for fun purposes only. No one knows what the heck will happen...nice colors though..NCEP GEFS Total Snowfall

[snowman65]

Please use this for fun purposes only. No one knows what the heck will happen...nice colors though..NCEP GEFS Total Snowfall

I'll take 2 of those, please....

[stormlover]

models are everywhere right now, Thursday we will have a better idea, I am interested to see what nam shows

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man, the models have gone schizo.

12z reverts back to a fetch of moisture over Texas and snow in Brownsville on Christmas Day

I'm sure that will happen.

The 12Z what? GFS and Canadian have no precip and cold temps Christmas day. Canadian has a low in the mid 20s, the GFS a low in the mid 30s. No moisture in Texas with either of them. European model isn't in through the 25th yet.

This is what I’m referring to regarding snow in Brownsville

[TexasMetBlake]

Man, the models have gone schizo.

12z reverts back to a fetch of moisture over Texas and snow in Brownsville on Christmas Day

I'm sure that will happen.

The 12Z what? GFS and Canadian have no precip and cold temps Christmas day. Canadian has a low in the mid 20s, the GFS a low in the mid 30s. No moisture in Texas with either of them. European model isn't in through the 25th yet.

Hey wxman57, you have me wondering if I'm seeing things! haha. I see that the 12z GFS does show precip from 06z on the 25th (rain) changing to snow in the Valley around 12z Christmas morning just west of Brownsville and then it continues to snow all the way through 18z the following day (26th). I give you a nickel if that actually happens, lol.

I give up on the models right now which is why I haven't posted. I'll check back in on Thursday.

[tireman4]

I agree with Blake. HGX has no clue, Srain and Wxman 57 are holding off until Thursday. The maps with color are nice for the holidays though. Woo Hoo

[Texaspirate11]

I agree with Blake. HGX has no clue, Srain and Wxman 57 are holding off until Thursday. The maps with color are nice for the holidays though. Woo Hoo

Do not diss our nws. thank you.
i understand the frustration, but really no one really has a handle on it.

[tireman4]

I agree with Blake. HGX has no clue, Srain and Wxman 57 are holding off until Thursday. The maps with color are nice for the holidays though. Woo Hoo

Do not diss our nws. thank you.

\

I did not "diss" the NWS. Read what they said.... Instead of chasing run-to-
run guesses this far out, the extended fcst (from Saturday and
beyond) was left essentially the same. The set up remains
favorable for a couple of reinforcing shots of colder temps making
their way into the region going into next week. But overall
forecast confidence in timing & specific details hasn`t improved
much, and probably won`t do so for at least a few more days. 47

I did not diss them, nor will I ever. They know FAR more than I do.

[mcheer23]

Models are confused, it'll be an interesting next few days.

[srainhoutx]

The Afternoon Updated Forecaster Adjusted CPC Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest cold and wet will be the main theme to end 2017...

Day 6 to 10:

The attachment 12182017 Day 6 to 10 610temp_new.gif is no longer available

Day 8 to 14:

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The Afternoon Updated Forecaster Adjusted CPC Day 6 to and Day 8 to 14 Outlooks suggest cold and wet will be the main theme to end 2017...

Day 6 to 10:

12182017 Day 6 to 10 610temp_new.gif

12182017 610prcp_new.gif

Day 8 to 14:

12182017 814temp_new.gif

12182017 814prcp_new.gif

Love it! Lock it in and I’ll take it 15 Times out of 10 over the last 2 Christmas Holidays

[sau27]

18z GFS still running but its going back to the freezer. Drops a 1063MB high all the way down to Colorado. It keeps our area below freezing for 36 hrs and counting starting Christmas night, with much of that spent in the 20s.
Again, not super likely to verify, but will be interesting to see if it is flipping back to the very cold trends it had up until the past couple of runs.
There have been a number of past events where the models sniff something out in the long range, lose it in the mid range, and then pick it back up in the short range.

[sau27]

Now it brings a 1054mb high down to the Red River by Noon on Wed the 27th. And we are now below freezing for 48+ hours. Pretty wild run

[snowman65]

GFS dropping a bombshell from Dec 25-29....but looks dry...

[TexasMetBlake]

The 18z guys is so out of the ordinary and several standard deviations below normal that it almost doesn't even make sense. I would be very cautious when throwing around numbers that the 18z GFS is throwing out.

Showing highs in the mid 20s all day Tuesday (day after Christmas) and upper 20s to near 30 all day Wednesday. That hasn't happened in decades. Let's just wait and see.

[harp]

It's dry. We went from an abundance of moisture a few days ago (ice storm) to basically a dry passage with no moisture

[sau27]

The 18z guys is so out of the ordinary and several standard deviations below normal that it almost doesn't even make sense. I would be very cautious when throwing around numbers that the 18z GFS is throwing out.

Showing highs in the mid 20s all day Tuesday (day after Christmas) and upper 20s to near 30 all day Wednesday. That hasn't happened in decades. Let's just wait and see.

I am trying to remember the last time we spent the better part of 48 hours below freezing. I seem to remember an ice storm from when I was a kid, maybe in the 1994-1995 time frame, where it stayed that cold for that long long time.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 18z guys is so out of the ordinary and several standard deviations below normal that it almost doesn't even make sense. I would be very cautious when throwing around numbers that the 18z GFS is throwing out.

Showing highs in the mid 20s all day Tuesday (day after Christmas) and upper 20s to near 30 all day Wednesday. That hasn't happened in decades. Let's just wait and see.

2013 was the last time.

[TexasMetBlake]

??? 2013? We haven't had highs in the 20s since 89 I don't think. Looking at the 2013 record, no such cold stands out.