December 2017: End Of The Year Weather

[harp]

Thank you for the response.

[DoctorMu]

The American model (GFS) has been predicting another cold outbreak for around the 24th, possibly with sub-freezing air at the surface along with precipitation. However, the GFS shows well above freezing temps just above the surface, which would indicate sleet/freezing rain vs. snow.

Keep in mind that neither the GFS nor the Canadian model correctly predicted last week's snow event until just over 48 hours from the start of the snow. However, the GFS was predicting colder air aloft with the snow event than it is predicting for around Christmas. I wouldn't trust the GFS too much until maybe the Friday to Saturday before Christmas (Dec. 22-23). At the very least, there are strong indications that we'll see a cold front around Christmas.

Canadian and Ensemble GEFS were 2 days ahead of GFS, which was nowcasting.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Oz GFS deposits a load of arctic air right down the middle of the country

[DoctorMu]

What Srain and Wxman 57 are alluding to in their forecasts..enjoy this while you can folks..

Welcome to Icebox Nation.

[harp]

What kind of temps is it projecting?

[snowman65]

What Srain and Wxman 57 are alluding to in their forecasts..enjoy this while you can folks..

Welcome to Icebox Nation.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_57.png

Jiminy Christmas!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

06z is colder than the 12z... 3-4 days around or below freezing and an ice storm over southern Texas

[MontgomeryCoWx]

06z is colder than the 12z... 3-4 days around or below freezing and an ice storm over southern Texas

[snowman65]

We sure don't need any ice storms then. Cold, yes...ice, no....

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I’d take sleet but no freezing rain.

This morning marks 10 straight model runs showing the cold around Christmas. I’d say that’s a good signal.

[snowman65]

GFS is now showing the cold to come in a few days later. Between Christmas and New Years. I know it's still a LONG ways out so I expect some adjustments all throughout the next 12 days

[MontgomeryCoWx]

GFS is now showing the cold to come in a few days later. Between Christmas and New Years. I know it's still a LONG ways out so I expect some adjustments all throughout the next 12 days

I see it arriving on Christmas but again, I don’t really take the timing too seriously this far out. An airmass like this is going to come in faster than modeled, and often colder.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 120850
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
250 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
It the wake of this morning`s cold front, today`s high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s, some 5 to
10 degrees cooler that yesterday`s highs that were in
the low to mid 70s. North winds will generally be in a
10 to 15 mph range (maybe occasionally gusty, especially
near the coast and offshore) with decreasing speeds as
the afternoon progresses when high pressure begins to
ridge into the area from the west. Weather stays on the
quiet side (dry with temperatures close to normal) ahead
of the area`s next cold frontal passage on Thursday/
Thursday evening. While we continue to see some run-to-run
model inconsistency in regards to the weekend forecast,
have gone ahead and raised Sunday`s rain chances just a
little in response to better/wetter model agreement with
the most recent run. When we start to see better
consistency in these wetter model solutions, do not be
surprised if we eventually carry higher rain chances in
the extended forecast. 42
&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy north winds during the mid morning thru afternoon hours will
be about the only aviation concern today. Otherwise, VFR for the
next 30+ hours. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds should pick up in the wake of a passing cold front
early this morning. We may see speeds briefly hit SCA criteria for a
short duration this morning, but think 15-20kt winds should many
prevail into the afternoon so will keep the caution flags going for
now and keep an eye on things. Winds/seas diminish later tonight and
Wed followed by the next front later Thurs. Looks like a SCA may be
required Thurs night in its wake. Onshore winds resume by early Sat
and rapidly increase as pressures fall across the Plains. Seas build
and warmer/deeper moisture overrides the cool nearshore shelf waters.
Sea fog may become an issue until the next stronger front clears the
coast later on Sunday. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today with RH values
bottoming out between 25-30% along with increasing wind speeds.
Gusts between 15-20 mph will be possible from mid morning to
mid/late afternoon. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 35 65 42 65 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 65 37 63 44 67 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 62 46 61 53 66 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

42/47

[tireman4]

Please use this for fun purposes only....Remember, 10 days out is when you start to narrow down specifics. Anything can and will change. This is the GFS 6Z

[TexasMetBlake]

Anybody see the temperature anomalies from the 12z GFS today by the end of the run? A 1056 mb high dropping into central Montana with departures running 25+ degrees below normal. Seems to be lots of hints in the long range in each model run of a big shift to drastically colder temps nation wide. Definitely has me paying close attention.

It's also interesting that every other run of the GFS continues to paint wintry weather in central Texas by around Christmas. Bear Watch?

[harp]

Anybody see the temperature anomalies from the 12z GFS today by the end of the run? A 1056 mb high dropping into central Montana with departures running 25+ degrees below normal. Seems to be lots of hints in the long range in each model run of a big shift to drastically colder temps nation wide. Definitely has me paying close attention.

It's also interesting that every other run of the GFS continues to paint wintry weather in central Texas by around Christmas. Bear Watch?

Yes, but the latest GFS keeps the cold air to the west and doesn't show it spilling into Louisiana. Keeps it in Texas. How plausible is this in your opinion? Thanks.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

SSW initializing as we get our first front and then (it seems) that we would be poised to get the hammer dropped on us leading into New Years. I know it’s a ways out but this has a feel of a week to two week cold snap that hasn’t been seen in quite sometime.

[TexasMetBlake]

SSW initializing as we get our first front and then (it seems) that we would be poised to get the hammer dropped on us leading into New Years. I know it’s a ways out but this has a feel of a week to two week cold snap that hasn’t been seen in quite sometime.

Hmm, in years? Last year (of all years) we hit 21 and 23 back to back. Anything colder than that and you'd have to go back to 1989 to find teens or colder. We'll see.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

SSW initializing as we get our first front and then (it seems) that we would be poised to get the hammer dropped on us leading into New Years. I know it’s a ways out but this has a feel of a week to two week cold snap that hasn’t been seen in quite sometime.

Hmm, in years? Last year (of all years) we hit 21 and 23 back to back. Anything colder than that and you'd have to go back to 1989 to find teens or colder. We'll see.

I was referring to the length of the cold snap not the temp. I’ve hit teens last year, 2013 and 2011.

1983 is the benchmark for duration of a cold snap. I want to say that my hometown didn’t get above freezing for 8-9 days.

[harp]

What did the 18Z GFS show?