Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[sleetstorm]

From what I saw on the RGB and Rainbow Infrared Satellite Images in motion, that tropical wave looks much healthier and I also saw a little better rotation in it. When I visited the Hurricane Center I noticed that some its tropical thunderstorms that it was generating have clouds tops that are literally -90º to -110ºF.

[djjordan]

Pretty sure we are looking at a TD now ... or even minimal TS Alex ..... I think it's a bit too far south to be much of a threat to us in SE Texas ..... S Texas and N. Mexico seem to be a likely target .... but hey still lots of factors to look at over time.

[unome]

yup, and I think they found their west winds

[biggerbyte]

Wxman, which set of models are you going with? Are you buying into the northerly turn, staying with the southerly, or somewhere in between. The models can not make up their mind, and any one of them could be right, if you follow such a thing.
So, which solution/model(s) have you decided on?

[desiredwxgd]

Has great spin and good outflow. In my opinion that is. My opinion again, T.S. before nightfall.

noaa.jpg

[redfish1]

does anyone think it is still a threat for us here in southeast texas?

[djjordan]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
2200 UTC FRI JUN 25 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 83.5W AT 25/2200Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 84.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 91.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 83.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

[djjordan]

TD 1 is alive


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

[unome]

TD 1 forms

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al012010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006252127
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
ONE, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2010, TD, O, 2010062112, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012010
AL, 01, 2010062018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 643W, 15, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2010062100, , BEST, 0, 127N, 654W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2010062106, , BEST, 0, 134N, 665W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 01, 2010062112, , BEST, 0, 140N, 676W, 20, 1011, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062118, , BEST, 0, 145N, 688W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 700W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062206, , BEST, 0, 151N, 715W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062212, , BEST, 0, 153N, 729W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062218, , BEST, 0, 154N, 740W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062300, , BEST, 0, 156N, 752W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 763W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062312, , BEST, 0, 159N, 768W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062318, , BEST, 0, 161N, 777W, 25, 1010, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062400, , BEST, 0, 162N, 782W, 25, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062406, , BEST, 0, 164N, 793W, 25, 1009, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 163N, 803W, 25, 1008, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062418, , BEST, 0, 162N, 810W, 25, 1008, WV, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 01, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062506, , BEST, 0, 163N, 821W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062512, , BEST, 0, 165N, 825W, 30, 1005, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 01, 2010062518, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 100, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[sambucol]

yep. Ch. 13 just reported it is a depression.

[Hardcoreweather]

[Scott747]

Just wanted to add this tidbit from the disco. I've been posting the repeated runs from the GFDL/HWRF because the NHC weighs heavily on these models as influence in the TVCN output. So as of now there is a very wide range that this could go. Tampico to Panama City as crazy as it sounds....

THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS
300/09. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.

[Mr. T]

does anyone think it is still a threat for us here in southeast texas?

It never was not a threat

[msp]

yeah. NHC track would imply a central Texas coast threat.... but it looks like they more or less took the middle road between the diverse model camps that take it anywhere from the northern Gulf to Mex. the cone of uncertainty should really be emphasized here.

[Mr. T]

The parallel 18z GFS brings Alex into the Gulf, stalls it off the Mexican coast for a few days, and then drifts it northward to Brownsville by 180. In the process, a ton of moisture is slung into our area on the east side of Alex's broad circulation, bringing our area heavy tropical rain

[Mr. T]

[srainhoutx]

The next image or two was interesting on the 'new' GFS.

[Mr. T]

The next image or two was interesting on the 'new' GFS.

You mean this? lol



FYI for everyone else, this is highly subject to change.

[Scott747]

The entire new GFS runs is comical/insane or whatever word you want to use, new or not. Almost as if someone with a delusional mind programmed it just to go ha ha.

[srainhoutx]

That's the one. Impressive sunset over the NW Caribean tonight. D-max should be worth the watching.