August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[DoctorMu]

Goes to show how fast a storm can strengthen even close to shore! Not too many people saw a 4 approaching shore...

The last CAT 4 hurricane (at landfall) to hit the US was Charley on August 13, 2004 at Port Charlotte, FL.

[DoctorMu]

Heavy Bands near the eyeball scraping the coast just N of Corpus at Port Aransas..

[txsnowmaker]

Ch. 2 just showed the latest American and European models of rain through Wednesday and it looked like totals for Metro Houston were significantly less than had been projected for Metro Houston in previous forecasts (closer to 10-12 inches in what they just showed).

Ch. 11 just did the same thing. 30"+ now moved west of Metro Houston, with most of the Houston metro area now in a very manageable 10-15" projected total rainfall category all the way through Wednesday. If that holds, that is a very big break for the city.

[cperk]

Wow that visible loop on the NHC site is a stunning display of Mother Nature.

[mckinne63]

Holy Mother...

OMG!

[Ounce]

Well, I guess we watch for Harvey to lead us in a Texas Two Step and wait for its 180 pivot back to the Gulf.

Maybe he likes "All My Exes Live in Texas." After all, Brooks said a couple of days ago that 'all the models are drunk.'

[sau27]

Ch. 2 just showed the latest American and European models of rain through Wednesday and it looked like totals for Metro Houston were significantly less than had been projected for Metro Houston in previous forecasts (closer to 10-12 inches in what they just showed).

Ch. 11 just did the same thing. 30"+ now moved west of Metro Houston, with most of the Houston metro area now in a very manageable 10-15" projected total rainfall category all the way through Wednesday. If that holds, that is a very big break for the city.

That's based on the 18z GFS run. EURO still has the same same high totals. Let's see what the 0z comes in with.

[DoctorMu]

I see a NNW jog - we'll see if it holds - the heaviest eyeball band is on the east side, too.

[basketballrox88]

Ch. 2 just showed the latest American and European models of rain through Wednesday and it looked like totals for Metro Houston were significantly less than had been projected for Metro Houston in previous forecasts (closer to 10-12 inches in what they just showed).

Ch. 11 just did the same thing. 30"+ now moved west of Metro Houston, with most of the Houston metro area now in a very manageable 10-15" projected total rainfall category all the way through Wednesday. If that holds, that is a very big break for the city.

That's based on the 18z GFS run. EURO still has the same same high totals. Let's see what the 0z comes in with.

The interesting thing is within an hour the area of 30+ inches has shifted from Harris county down to Wharton and then just west of Harris County. The point I'm trying to make is that the models don't know exactly where the extreme rainfall amounts will be but simply that the potential for high rain amounts is there . This is what we have to keep in mind.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Called it... Cat 4!

[ticka1]

i can say if this forecast bust - folks wont listen next time. I got people yelling me we arent getting anything that we havent already experienced. i just ready for this to be over with....

[DoctorMu]

i can say if this forecast bust - folks wont listen next time. I got people yelling me we arent getting anything that we havent already experienced. i just ready for this to be over with....

This have gone exactly as expected so far, with a bump up on wind velocity. Once there is landfall the path has been uncertain for days, and continues to be. Once a major hurricane is onshore and friction slows down the wind velocity, they become major rain dumping machines. Corpus, Houston, areas in between, San Antonio all at risk. We're lucky that Corpus ended up west of the eye with thus offshore winds.

[Cromagnum]

I have folks in Freeport that Still don't think it's going to do anything. Sadly, if it doesn't turn out to be a disaster for them they won't listen next time.

[MRG93415]

Dont understand why people want destruction. Then when it happens they complain that there is no electricity, etc. Makes no sense to me.

[don]

Yep everything is going as forcast, today was never suppose to have a high flood threat, starting tomorrow rainfall should increase.

[DoctorMu]

I have folks in Freeport that Still don't think it's going to do anything. Sadly, if it doesn't turn out to be a disaster for them they won't listen next time.

Yeah, hurricanes become fake news like global warming. This is FAR from over. It's just begun. We're lucky that the highest winds will be north of Lockport in an area that is sparsely populated, near the Aransas Wildlife Refuge. It appears I've been right on the landfall location - but averaging the models gave us what we see tonight.

Harvey could also stall and/or turn north with at landfall.

[mckinne63]

I am thinking we are not out of the woods yetl

[Ounce]

Called it... Cat 4!

Winner, winner! Chicken Dinner!!

[Stormrider]

I am thinking we are not out of the woods yetl

Experience has taught a lot of us that you don't turn your back on a tropical system until it's well in well onshore and a remnant low.

[cperk]

I have folks in Freeport that Still don't think it's going to do anything. Sadly, if it doesn't turn out to be a disaster for them they won't listen next time.

After what we all are seeing playing out in real time and they don't listen the next time then shame on them.