August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Electric Lizard]

Frank Billingsley just said that Harvey will stop and then turn north before landfall. Something to watch.

The 5pm advisory still has 325@10 and it seems to be running ahead of the forecast points on the NHC sat loops. These loops also show what appears to be a significant deterioration of the cold cloud tops as they move over land. This seems to be a small storm - very powerful, but small like Camile. That's one reason it blew up so quick. I'm kind of grasping at straws here, but I can see how the faster inland movement plus the deterioration plus the forecast keeping it NW of Corpus yielding a more manageable amount of rain here in Houston.

[Katdaddy]

Hurricane Harvey looks incredible on radar and satellite at 125MPH this evening. 47 years since the last major hurricane CAT 3 Celia visited the Coastal Bend and this evening that streak will come to an end. In addition, Harvey 2017 will join the ranks of Beulah 67, Carla 61, Celia 70, and Alicia 83 as CAT 3 major hurricanes to visit the TX Coast since the 60s.

000
WTNT64 KNHC 252156
TCUAT4

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
500 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...5 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ABOUT TO MOVE ONSHORE...

A station at Aransas Pass run by the Texas Coastal Observing
Network recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) with
a gust to 81 mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 96.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.85 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

[DoctorMu]

Event: Tornado Warning
Alert:
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT.

* At 519 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Sweeny, moving northwest at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Bay City, Sweeny, Van Vleck and Boling-Iago.
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN
Instructions: TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
Target Area:
Brazoria
Matagorda
Wharton

[davidiowx]

Is radar working for anyone else?

[Belmer]

NHC just upgraded this to a Category 4... 130mph winds. WOW!

"6 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...HARVEY BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST"

[srainhoutx]

Harvey has definitely slowed if not stalled temporarily. RECON is making another run at the center for another pass.

[wxman57]

I'm somewhat surprised at the level of panic across the Houston area. I guess it's hard to make people understand that the possibly 15-20 inches of rain here will be spread out over 4-5 days, and the worst of it may not arrive until next Tuesday or Wednesday. Houston may see up to 1-2 inches per day through Monday or Tuesday. Nothing too much to worry about there. Some minor street flooding. Harvey's tropical storm-force winds may briefly reach up to Galveston briefly. The island has already seen some gusts up to 40-42 mph, but sustained winds have been well below tropical storm strength. In Houston, winds won't be much stronger than they area now. Received a photo from College Station this afternoon - shelves in the local grocery store are empty. Wow!

What we have to watch out for is where the remnant low of Harvey tracks to around next Tue-Wed. Allison was a remnant low as it moved slowly across Houston back in 2001. Such lows can produce tremendous rainfall, particularly at night. That's where we may see some flooding.

For the lower to middle coast, it's a whole different story. Harvey will make landfall with the lowest pressure since Carla (1961). Rita officially made landfall in Louisiana, so it doesn't count. I saw some rainfall amounts well over 50 inches for the area west of Victoria and north of Corpus Christi. This will be quite a historic event for that area, not to mention the wind and surge destruction.

[Rip76]

Incredible looking storm we have here.

[DoctorMu]

CAT 4 hovering off the coast @ Lockport. Unbelievable.

A lot of idiots driving around Corpus.

Don't be an Idiot. Stay put in high risk areas around the coastal bend. The authorities are NOT ON the ROAD. THEY CANNOT RESCUE YOU!!

Major feeder bands are less than 5 miles offshore.

[DoctorMu]

[DoctorMu]

Wow - look at that eyewall just deepen and Explode:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-vis.html

[djmike]

Is it a possibility harveys stall will happen offshore instead of making an official landfall and stalling well inland? That would be disastrous! Especially if it stalls offshore than makes its loop and heads towards us. I guess anything is at play here. Prayers for all.

[DoctorMu]

Holy Mother...

[DoctorMu]

Is it a possibility harveys stall will happen offshore instead of making an official landfall and stalling well inland? That would be disastrous! Especially if it stalls offshore than makes its loop and heads towards us. I guess anything is at play here. Prayers for all.

Indeed. Hard to tell. As the eyeball has deepened and widened, some may be an optical illusion. It has slowed, though. Just hope Harvey doesn't turn north right now...

[DoctorMu]

Still a lot of Darwin Award candidates on the road around the coastal bend and Corpus. Make sure you and loved ones hunker down. Do not attempt to drive now! Search and Rescue will not be operating. You're on your own!

[djmike]

Is it a possibility harveys stall will happen offshore instead of making an official landfall and stalling well inland? That would be disastrous! Especially if it stalls offshore than makes its loop and heads towards us. I guess anything is at play here. Prayers for all.

Indeed. Hard to tell. As the eyeball has deepened and widened, some may be an optical illusion. It has slowed, though. Just hope Harvey doesn't turn north right now...

A met here in bpt mentioned the possibility of a quicker stall. I was like noooo. Not right now! Even mentioned a possibility of a more northern track right before landfall. I guess not its a watch and wait time. I stopped looking at the models guidance as they are and have been so jumbled up I cant tell WHAT the thing will do. This storm will be record breaking for years to come! Thats for sure!

[TexasBreeze]

Goes to show how fast a storm can strengthen even close to shore! Not too many people saw a 4 approaching shore...

[txsnowmaker]

Ch. 2 just showed the latest American and European models of rain through Wednesday and it looked like totals for Metro Houston were significantly less than had been projected for Metro Houston in previous forecasts (closer to 10-12 inches in what they just showed).

[davidiowx]

Still a lot of Darwin Award candidates on the road around the coastal bend and Corpus. Make sure you and loved ones hunker down. Do not attempt to drive now! Search and Rescue will not be operating. You're on your own!

IT still ceases to amaze me why people don't leave. But then again, I don't thing Corpus issued mandatory evacuations either.. by the looks of it, it appears to be directly into rockport or even a few miles north. These wobbles are hard to tell!

[ticka1]

time to leave the model watch and watch real time. Hearling rumors of roofs being blown off houses in fulton. We are prepared and ready for whatever happens.