August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[srainhoutx]

Anyone think the track will shift northward any per the latest runs?

It's possible we will see a slow shift further up the Coast. Let's wait until the 10 AM Full Package Advisory and see what the NHC has to say. They fully understand the impacts and potential threat for the entire NW Gulf Coast and are very carefully evaluating the situation. Emergency Managers and State/Local Government Officials are pressing very hard for the worst case scenarios from all the Federal Weather Forecasters regarding Harvey. Time is quickly running out to make final decisions.

[unome]

coming up on daylight pics

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-12-1

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... loc=#image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[srainhoutx]

GOES 16 Mesoscale rapid refresh IR Imagery suggests and inner eye wall may be attempting to develop. The next center pass should provide a fresh look as Harvey continues to organize. The center is on the East side of that big convective ball to the West.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday 7:00 AM Update from Jeff:

USAF mission showing tremendous pressure falls in progress with Harvey. Pressure is down to 985mb which is a 10mb fall in 1 hr. Flight level winds up to 62kts and plane shows the formation of a northern eyewall.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60mph…maybe a hurricane by later this morning

Rapid intensification is in progress…NHC will likely increase landfall intensity to cat 2 at 1000am, it is possible this may reach major hurricane status.

Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area MUST be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

Coastal residents in hurricane evacuation zones from Matagorda to Corpus need to be ready to leave immediately.

[MRG93415]

Thursday 7:00 AM Update from Jeff:

USAF mission showing tremendous pressure falls in progress with Harvey. Pressure is down to 985mb which is a 10mb fall in 1 hr. Flight level winds up to 62kts and plane shows the formation of a northern eyewall.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60mph…maybe a hurricane by later this morning

Rapid intensification is in progress…NHC will likely increase landfall intensity to cat 2 at 1000am, it is possible this may reach major hurricane status.

Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area MUST be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

Coastal residents in hurricane evacuation zones from Matagorda to Corpus need to be ready to leave immediately.

[ticka1]

Where is the frontal boundary to the north of Harvey?

[mcheer23]

Very likely to see NHC shift track north. TVCN moved north

[srainhoutx]

Where is the frontal boundary to the north of Harvey?

[tireman4]

Sorry I was gone all day. I could not log in from my house. Log in issues, I assume. Mcheer, congrats. We knew you when you were just a pup...sniff....we are so happy you finished your BS in Meteorology. Now, onto pressing concerns, folks please get all of your preparations done. The pro mets will guide you through this..be patient with the questions..it might take a little while ( remember, Srain, Wxman 57, Andrew and Jeff ..and our new folks...Mcheer and Belmer...another congrats..knew you when you were a pup too..) are busy with their forecasts. Stay tuned here for an ever changing event.

[tireman4]

[quote="srainhoutx"]Thursday 7:00 AM Update from Jeff:

USAF mission showing tremendous pressure falls in progress with Harvey. Pressure is down to 985mb which is a 10mb fall in 1 hr. Flight level winds up to 62kts and plane shows the formation of a northern eyewall.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60mph…maybe a hurricane by later this morning

Rapid intensification is in progress…NHC will likely increase landfall intensity to cat 2 at 1000am, it is possible this may reach major hurricane status.

Srain,

Did you think it would ramp up this quick or is this in line with your forcasting two days ago?

[srainhoutx]

Very likely to see NHC shift track north. TVCN moved north

[stormlover]

yep, it is towards the UKMET

[Katdaddy]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
508 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Increasing moisture levels and building instability will bring the area
rising shower and thunderstorm chances today and tonight. As strengthening
Tropical Storm Harvey works its way toward the Texas coast (see the
latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center and the WATCHES/WARNINGS/
ADVISORIES section below), look for increasing shower and thunderstorm
coverage beginning on Friday with deteriorating conditions (increasing
winds, areas of heavy rainfall, building seas, etc) into the weekend
and possibly lasting into early next week. Some models continue to advertise
a very slow moving and possibly stationary storm system for maybe a
3 to 5 day period over the weekend and into the start of next week.
If this materializes, some areas could see extremely high rainfall
totals leading to dangerous and life threatening flash flooding. At
this time, the highest totals (10 to 20 inches with higher amounts
possible) are expected to be generally along and to the south of the
Interstate 10 corridor. To the north, anticipate totals to be more
in a 5 to 10 inch range with higher amounts possible. A Flash Flood
Watch will go into effect for our far southwest counties (Colorado,
Jackson, Matagorda and Wharton) beginning early Friday morning. As
the event unfolds, the Watch will likely be expanded further northward
and eastward over the weekend. It is very important to emphasize that
this could become a prolonged and very dangerous rain event. Keep up
with the latest forecasts over the next several days!

[srainhoutx]

First Visible Image of soon to be Hurricane Harvey

[texoz]

What are thoughts on possible tornadic activity with Harvey?

Historically, when tropical storms run into stalled fronts, does this increase those chances?

[djmike]

Ok, now that Harvey seems to be ramping up rather quickly and now possibly a cat 2 OR even cat3 before landfall, will that make any difference in the direction it heads? I noticed models are further north per last run, hope that trend doesn't continue today.

[Ounce]

Thank all of you so very much. I have a very disappointed daughter but you helped. As of now she is going to call it off. I hope they do call for evacuations because I am worried about her family that is down there.

Again, I really appreciate your help

I didn't even know there was a Portland in Texas.

[tireman4]

Thank all of you so very much. I have a very disappointed daughter but you helped. As of now she is going to call it off. I hope they do call for evacuations because I am worried about her family that is down there.

Again, I really appreciate your help

I didn't even know there was a Portland in Texas.

Yep Oz, it is near Gregory Texas......it is near Beaumont...

[sau27]

Is there any indication on what to expect as far as the physical size of this storm. One thing I have never understood is how or if we can determine whether a storm will become very wide (ie Ike) or remain compact.

[srainhoutx]

Latest Vortex Message:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 13:36Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2017
Storm Name: Harvey (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:04:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°49'N 93°08'W (23.8167N 93.1333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 310 statute miles (498 km) to the ESE (118°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,292m (4,239ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 62kts (From the SSE at ~ 71.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the ENE (65°) from the flight level center at 13:00:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 240° at 8kts (From the WSW at 9mph)