August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 5 Year Later

[Stormrider]

Given the timimg of a potential landfall and low forecast confidence, do you think NHC will issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone Formation Advisory today?

[srainhoutx]

When is recon going in there, after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?

Ok, I have answered my own question and I think Srain alluded to this earlier..sorry...

On Wednesday morning the first mission in BOC but on Tuesday the Gulfstream jet will be up.

CODE: SELECT ALL
EMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.

That's the NOAA G-IV High Altitude Sampling mission this evening. That data will likely assist the guidance regarding the Upper Air Pattern/Features ahead of Harvey. Low Level Operations will commence once it enters the Southern Gulf/BoC.

[tireman4]

Understood. This gives the folks an update on what is going on now and days ahead. Thank you for the update. We appreciate it.

[sau27]

Given the timimg of a potential landfall and low forecast confidence, do you think NHC will issue a Potential Tropical Cyclone Formation Advisory today?

My guess would be they would wait until it re-emerges over water tonight or tomorrow morning to see where the "center" winds up. I could be wrong though.

[brooksgarner]

Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..

It's the state of the science. Until yesterday, models were sending this into Mexico. That said, it hasn't formed. There's no guarantee of anything more than rain -- until there is. This is a computer model hurricane. Until a center develops -- a closed low -- there's no storm to track or forecast.

30yrs ago there'd be no forecast even today. It would be a 48hr surprise. At least today we get 72hrs warning.

A recent example of a short-fuse hurricane is Humberto in 2007. Look that up on a Wikipedia.

[srainhoutx]

Florida State University Experimental TC Genesis Probabilities (Consensus) suggest 100% chance a Tropical Cyclone will form in the Western Gulf.

[tireman4]

12z Surface Analysis

[srainhoutx]

Just Updated from Carcah/NHC regarding future RECON Missions to investigate Harvey. A lot of assets being thrown at this Storm...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 22 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-083

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42         FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 49
       A. 23/1800Z                   A. 24/0000Z
       B  NOAA2 0809A HARVEY         B. NOAA9 0909A HARVEY
       C. 23/1400Z                   C. 23/1730Z
       D. 22.2N 92.8W                D. NA
       E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2130Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71       FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
       A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z          A. 24/0600Z
       B  AFXXX 1009A HARVEY         B. NOAA2 1109A HARVEY
       C. 23/2115Z                   C. 24/0200Z
       D. 22.7N 93.2W                D. 23.2N 93.6W
       E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z       E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49        FLIGHT SIX --  TEAL 72
       A. 24/1200Z                   A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA9 1209A HARVEY         B. AFXXX 1309A HARVEY
       C. 24/0530Z                   C. 24/0945Z
       D. NA                         D. 23.8N 94.1W
       E. NA                         E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT        F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES STARTING AT 24/2100Z
       B. A P-3 MISSION FOR 24/1800Z

[Texaspirate11]

Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..

It's the state of the science. Until yesterday, models were sending this into Mexico. That said, it hasn't formed. There's no guarantee of anything more than rain -- until there is. This is a computer model hurricane. Until a center develops -- a closed low -- there's no storm to track or forecast.

30yrs ago there'd be no forecast even today. It would be a 48hr surprise. At least today we get 72hrs warning.

A recent example of a short-fuse hurricane is Humberto in 2007. Look that up on a Wikipedia.

Brooks - we lived thru Humberto - thank you.
We don't like surprises in this neck of the woods....

[brooksgarner]

Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..

It's the state of the science. Until yesterday, models were sending this into Mexico. That said, it hasn't formed. There's no guarantee of anything more than rain -- until there is. This is a computer model hurricane. Until a center develops -- a closed low -- there's no storm to track or forecast.

30yrs ago there'd be no forecast even today. It would be a 48hr surprise. At least today we get 72hrs warning.

A recent example of a short-fuse hurricane is Humberto in 2007. Look that up on a Wikipedia.

Brooks - we lived thru Humberto - thank you.
We don't like surprises in this neck of the woods....

Yes, I'm sure you and many others were here in southeast Texas for that one. (I was in South Carolina, watching from my sunny perch.) Computer models are such a blessing... and a curse. Humberto was a great example of one missed by the models, reminiscent of times before computer modelling. At least with Harvey (thanks entirely to models) we have a good hunch that we're going to see something develop beyond, "scattered weekend downpours."

[Rip76]

GFS a little further south and west through 66hr.

Near Brownsville.

[TexasBreeze]

Incredible flood threat from this run. Not good. Has it going inland just south of Matagorda Bay, stalling then approaching coast again just west of our HGX county area. Weaker by 20 mb's though.

Hour 150 by Galveston...

[tireman4]

Well, as has been discussed before, we do not have a center yet, so the models are basing off of, well scattered remnants, I believe ( The pros can correct me if I am wrong). Depending on where, when and how he comes off the peninsula will be a determinant in where he goes. Gonzo ( the Gulfstream Aircraft) will be sampling at the high altitudes and recon at the low altitudes will be in tomorrow. I think we will really start to see things shape up in that sense.

[stormlover]

Would be catastrophic flooding in south east Texas

[unome]

until it's on NHC's page, their Marine Forecast area seems to be updating regularly & with GOES-16, tracking's a joy compared even to Humberto's time, let alone the days of Andrew or Alicia

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/ or http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/forecast ... .php?large

[Rip76]

The HMON model has shifted southward into Mexico.

[unome]

from Jeff Masters' bloh https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ex-ha ... aten-texas

Forecast for ex-Harvey

SSTs will increase to 30°C (86°F) as ex-Harvey moves to the northwest towards Texas this week. The wind shear will stay light, and the atmosphere will remain moist. These conditions should allow ex-Harvey to regenerate into at least a tropical storm before it makes landfall on Friday, and it may be able to reach hurricane strength. The 0Z Tuesday operational runs of our three reliable global models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European and UKMET models—all developed the system would develop into a tropical storm or hurricane, and all of these models showed a landfall between the Mexico/Texas border and the central coast of Texas on Friday. The NOAA jet is flying a dropsonde mission over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening to help the models make good forecasts for their 0Z Wednesday runs. In its tropical weather outlook issued at 8 am EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave ex-Harvey 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 70% and 90%, respectively. Regardless of development, coastal Texas can expect heavy rains in excess of five inches late this week.

[TexasBreeze]

Starting to fire storms on its nw side. It actually looks like it won't take much time to get more organized once it pulls away from land.

[Rip76]

Starting to fire storms on its nw side. It actually looks like it won't take much time to get more organized once it pulls away from land.

Yep.

[srainhoutx]

Worrisome to see the 12Z GFS Precipitation totals for 168 hours.