Karen wrote:When is this expected to come ashore I dont understand all of the numbers you guys post. Thank you for all of the fantastic information you post.
Thursday night into Friday depending on which model ends up being closer to reality. Regardless, this system has the potential to be a big rain maker. I suspect Jeff is busy typing his morning briefing...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and adjacent water areas are associated with the remnants of Harvey.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread
westward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day
or so. Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Ok, as I do this for every event ( be they winter, spring, fall or summer), make sure to be vigilant. Go over your hurricane supply lists. This is a fluid situation and may change from hour to hour, it is always good ( to quote Srain) to have them up to date and ready. Second, I want to thank the pro mets ( Srain, Wxman 57, Jeff, Brooks, Andrew, Belmer, seasoned amateurs and others I have forgotten to mention) before, during and always during the season. Without you, this board will not work. We appreciate what you do. Now, that being said, I know you folks will have questions. I think as the days wear on, the questions will start to pile up, as it were. They are very busy, but the pro mets will get to you, I promise. It might take a little while, but they will answer your questions. As this ever present situation evolves, stay tuned here, the NSW/NHC and local outlets for your news. This will be an interesting upcoming few days.
First Visible Image of Harvey Remnants half way across the Yucatan Peninsula trending a bit more NW> Also, just Updated 12Z Location/Track and Intensity Guidance.
The attachment 08222017_1230Z_goes13_x_vis1km_09LHARVEY_25kts-1009mb-186N-878W_100pc.jpg is no longer available
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Forecast trends overnight continue to suggest that the tropical wave currently crossing the Yucatan will emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday. The well defined, yet weakening, upper level low now S of Lake Charles will continue to move westward and weaken allowing the continued break down of sub-tropical ridging across TX. This will allow the developing tropical system over the southern Gulf of Mexico to turn NW and NNW toward the TX coast. Nearly all global model guidance is now N of the TX/MX border with landfalls anywhere from Freeport, TX to near Brownsville, TX. The general consensus track is in the region bounded by Corpus Christi on the south and Matagorda Bay on the north. While the model spread is fairly large, the timing is fairly similar and has been for the last 24-36 hours that the system will landfall along the TX coast Friday evening.
The forecast becomes incredibly complex near/after landfall as the upper level steering flow weakens and the system begins to slow down and possibly stall or meander over the region not far inland of the coast. This is the result of the system becoming caught in a “col” region between high pressure to our NW and our NE and a weak frontal zone which will stall Thursday north of I-10. It appears the system will eventually become caught in the frontal trough and slowly creep E/ENE across much of SC/SE TX into SW LA from Friday-Monday. Should this verify as suggested by several forecast models, rainfall and flooding would be “incredible” over the region.
Intensity:
Global models have become aggressive overnight with intensity with both the GFS and hurricane model HWRF showing significant intensification over the NW Gulf Thursday and Friday while the ECWMF, CMC, and UKMET show more modest intensification. It appears nearly everything will align for intensification over the NW Gulf with a 200mb high aloft, very warm SST’s, and possibly the formation of an outflow channel to the south and north of the surface circulation which almost always supports intensification…sometimes rapid. The NW Gulf is certainly no stranger to the formation and rapid intensification of tropical systems and this must be watched very closely once the system enters the Gulf early Wednesday. General consensus of the intensity models bring the system to a minimal category 1 hurricane at landfall along the middle TX coast. Any slowing of the forward motion would only give the system more time to intensify across the NW Gulf….this must be watched very closely.
Impacts:
Impacts appear increasingly likely along the entire TX coast starting as early as Thursday along the lower TX coast and spreading northward on Friday into the middle and upper coast. Following the TVCN track of the major multi model consensus brings tropical storm conditions into the Matagorda Bay region on Friday with hurricane conditions possible over that region Friday night into Saturday morning.
As long as the system does not become more than a category 1 hurricane…the legacy will likely become excessive rainfall and inland flooding. Major models are very aggressive and rightly so with some very impressive rainfall totals given the slow meandering motion near/after landfall. A very large portion of the state generally south of the I-10 corridor could see totals over 2-3 days of 10-15 inches with isolated amounts of 25+ inches. This is a potentially very serious flash flood and river flood threat for a large portion SC/SE TX and the coastal bend. Exact totals will be redefined with time as the track confidence increases
Will not use WW3 guidance on coastal impacts as it is based off the highly aggressive GFS run. Instead will follow the TVCN track which would place at least TS force winds across all of the lower and mid coast waters on Friday and at least the western part of the upper coast waters Friday afternoon and night. Hurricane conditions possible Friday night mid coast into our western waters. Will bump seas to 6 feet Thursday as large long period swells begin to arrive out of the central Gulf which will likely start to push up tides. Will go with 12 feet on Friday with 18 ft over our offshore waters as conditions build to near hurricane force west of Palacios Friday night. Will certainly need to start looking at storm surge threat potential, but without a defined track nor guidance from NHC will just have to wait…certainly could see tides breach the 4.5 ft warning criteria over Matagorda Bay and portions of the upper coast on Friday night into Saturday…but unsure how high they may go as this is very dependent on track and intensity.
Much of these impacts will change over the next 24 hours and this is a very low confidence forecast.
Residents along the TX coast should be closely monitoring weather information at least once a day. Hurricane plans should be in place and ready to be enacted over the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches and storm surge watches will likely be required for portions of the TX coast on Wednesday.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
726 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017
.AVIATION...
VFR for most of the day today. Any early morning fog will dissipate
by 13Z. Not anticipating a lot of SHRA/TSRA coverage today. VFR
for a majority of the area tonight with increasing SHRA/TSRA coverage
possible tomorrow. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Currently, radar imagery shows little shower development over the
far offshore waters, with showers dissipating almost as quickly
as they are forming. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s
further inland and in the low 80s along the coast, with dew points
in the low to mid 70s. Clear skies across SE texas will become
partly cloudy shortly after sunrise, with the increase in precip
development with the help of daytime heating.
Temperatures and PoPs for today seem to be right on track. Tuesday`s
forecast should look slightly similar to what we saw Monday, with
the main difference being drier air aloft. This dry air can be
seen in tonight`s 00Z soundings and is also indicated in the GFS
and NAM forecast soundings. The GOES-16 precipitable water imagery
is also picking up on the drier conditions with PWs ranging from
1.4 to 1.7 across the region. With the addition of this drier air
filtering in from aloft with daytime mixing and subsidence holding
tight, expecting overall less coverage today than Monday.
Therefore, isolated to widely scattered coverage should increase
through mid morning forming over the waters and pushing onshore
by mid morning. Most convection should dissipate this evening
shortly after sunset.
A frontal boundary moves into the northern counties within our
area of responsibility late Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday, bringing with it a band of precip out ahead of the
actual front. This front is not expected to provided a relief from
the heat, though it will lower our high temperatures Thursday by
two to three degrees. Additionally, development will also be
possible along the coast Wednesday morning and into the afternoon
as the seabreeze again moves onshore. The TUTT low that is
currently located over the northern Gulf of Mexico will also
continue to move to the NE, and should help to lower heights and
potentially aid in lift. Therefore, went ahead and increased PoPs
to 30% across SE TX, Wednesday into Thursday to account for these
features.
Where the forecast gets a little tricky is late Thursday through
Sunday. The region of disturbed weather formerly known as tropical
system Harvey, as of 1 AM CT was located SE of the Yucatan
peninsula. This region of disturbed weather is expected to cross
over the Yucatan peninsula, ending up in the Bay of Campeche late
tonight into Wednesday morning. As of now, a lot of uncertainty
lies in how the system will redevelop, if it is able to redevelop,
once reaching the Bay of Campeche.
The latest 00Z model runs including the GFS/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian all
indicate the potential for redevelopment, but where the solutions
diverge is in the overall track of the system once reforming. The
solutions show a fairly large spread in possible movement, but the
overall track of the system has shifted to the north in
comparison to the previous 12Z and 18Z runs. Essentially, the 00Z
runs show potential landfall ranging from Northern Mexico to along
the middle Texas coast. There is still plenty of uncertainty in
how the behavior of this system will pan out, but regardless of
where this system could make landfall if it is able to
reintensify, there is a considerable increase in the amount of
rainfall that could be expected between Thursday through Sunday.
Therefore, increased PoPs across this time frame. Decided to cap
the PoPs at 50% strictly because of the lack of confidence based
on potential track and timing uncertainties with this system. This
also means that the temperatures over these days were also
lowered to below normal to account for the increase in potential
rainfall and cloud cover.
Hathaway
MARINE...
Carrying light to moderate winds and low seas through Wednesday.
There continues to be uncertainty in the forecast beginning on
Thursday as latest models have the remnants of Harvey reorganizing
and moving toward the lower to middle Texas coast. Similar to
last night, have nudged up winds and seas some more with the
highest values now in a Thursday night through Sunday time period.
Mariners are urged to closely monitor the forecast as area
winds/seas could end up a lot stronger/higher. 42
I find it interesting, if not concerning, that the GFS has become so bullish with this system in the past 12-24 hours - considering its bias towards weaker/non-existent systems most of this season.
I'm no weather expert, but in 2017, isn't it disappointing that this goes from almost a non-story in the "mainstream" of weather reporting....to "oh crap, in 3-4 days this could hit anywhere on the Texas coast!"
BiggieSmalls wrote:I'm no weather expert, but in 2017, isn't it disappointing that this goes from almost a non-story in the "mainstream" of weather reporting....to "oh crap, in 3-4 days this could hit anywhere on the Texas coast!"
The Eclipse was the "Big News" item. That will change dramatically today and especially when Watches/Warnings are hoisted. That said our Social Media feeds as well as other reliable Social Media feeds of individuals and Weather Organizations have been very active since last week.
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Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..
BiggieSmalls wrote:Fair enough, I've seen chatter on this board and via certain twitter follows over the last few days....it just seems that a tropical storm hitting Texas in 3-4 days isn't something most Texans have considered as a distinct possibility until, well, today. Can't control what the "mainstream media" chooses to focus on I guess..
And that may not be such a bad thing... I contacted my Family in the SE Texas area this morning to advised them to pay close attention. Mom already did her shopping yesterday and filled up the car with gas. Not a bad idea for everyone to consider doing today before the "hype machine" cranks up.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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tireman4 wrote:When is recon going in there, after it leaves the Yucatan, I presume?
Ok, I have answered my own question and I think Srain alluded to this earlier..sorry...
On Wednesday morning the first mission in BOC but on Tuesday the Gulfstream jet will be up.
CODE: SELECT ALL
EMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0000Z A. 23/1200Z
B NOAA9 0609A HARVEY B. AFXXX 0709A HARVEY
C. 22/1730Z C. 23/0900Z
D. NA D. 20.0N 92.0W
E. NA E. 23/1130Z TO 23/1430Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. 6-HRLY FIXES ON HARVEY IF SYSTEM REGENERATES.
