ENSO Updates

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Good to see 1+2 cooling down

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.2ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions have cooled except for Region 4.

[Ptarmigan]

This forecast model shows El Nino developing later this year.

However, there are things complicating El Nino development.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 3674271744

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3.4, and 4 warmed. Region 3 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. The rest are unchanged.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 are the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 has warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 are the same from last week.

[Ptarmigan]

This ECMWF is trending towards El Nino.



It also has a Modoki El Nino by July, August, and September.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Are Modoki's kind to us in Fall/Winter?

[srainhoutx]

Are Modoki's kind to us in Fall/Winter?

They can be....if you like cold and stormy. Let's see what actually develops in the months ahead. We have to get beyond Hurricane Season before realistically looking ahead to next Fall and Winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Are Modoki's kind to us in Fall/Winter?

Too early to tell at this point.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 4 warmed. Region 3.4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 crashed, while Region 3 and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 is unchanged.

Region 1+2 is volatile in nature as it is off the coast of South America.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2,3, and 4 cooled. Region 3.4 is the same.

[Ptarmigan]

CPC has El Nino by August. Too early to tell of course.

August 2017


September 2017

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.5ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 cooled. Region 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3.4 and 4 warmed. Region 3 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed up. Perhaps a Modoki El Nino?

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 remain the same. Region 4 cooled slightly.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 cooled. Region 4 remains the same.