June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

[tireman4]

This isn't a 'fixed low' type of system and may not tighten up for another day. I think recon will have a hard time finding a definitive center. This is the perfect setup for the new system and issuing watches/warnings before it's upgradable.

Good to see you around these parts You watching this one from the front porch?

lol

I haven't been on a chase since Gustav and so desperate that I might get off the porch and drive a few hours for a 50 kt system.

Now that is an addiction sir.....LOL..No, we love to have you here. Your stories and videos really bring severe weather home to the forum

[TexasBreeze]

The system as a whole looks more west than anything looking at loops...

[brooksgarner]

As Steve posted, here's the EURO ensemble suite, courtesy WxBell and Ryan Maue via Twitter.

This would be a VERY wet scenario for southeast Texas and cause for concern Thursday/Friday. Fascinating to see the multiple vorts spinning Fujiwara-style around themselves in a common core.

[davidiowx]

What are you gut feelings on this one Brooks? And thanks for posting on this site. It is wonderful to be able interact with the pros like yourself, and the others who frequently post on here as well!

[tireman4]

As Steve posted, here's the EURO ensemble suite, courtesy WxBell and Ryan Maue via Twitter.

This would be a VERY wet scenario for southeast Texas and cause for concern Thursday/Friday. Fascinating to see the multiple vorts spinning Fujiwara-style around themselves in a common core.

Glad you survived the heat. You looked absolutely drenched out there. Always a reminder folks, stayed tuned here to the forum for the pro mets (Brooks, Srain, Wxman 57, Andrew, Blake , Jeff and David) to give you the latest and their feelings on this everchanging set of events. A big thank you goes out to all of them who do this voluntarily. We thank you all so much.

[mcheer23]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

[TexasBreeze]

This new protocol system is sure being put to the test already with 2 ptc's at the same time. The Carib one just became "Bret". As Scott said earlier, 3 is the best fit type of storm for all of this!

[tireman4]

It is the Nam...but.....not sure what to think..until we get something from the Hurricane Hunter....this could all be speculation...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[unome]

NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models. ... stinvest=1

http://hurricanecity.com/models/archive ... _Track.txt

AL, 93, 2017061618, , BEST, 0, 165N, 850W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061700, , BEST, 0, 167N, 854W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061706, , BEST, 0, 169N, 857W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061712, , BEST, 0, 172N, 862W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, al732017 to al932017,
AL, 93, 2017061718, , BEST, 0, 174N, 866W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061800, , BEST, 0, 175N, 870W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061806, , BEST, 0, 176N, 873W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061812, , BEST, 0, 180N, 873W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061818, , BEST, 0, 187N, 873W, 35, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 200, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061900, , BEST, 0, 196N, 874W, 35, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 200, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061906, , BEST, 0, 210N, 879W, 35, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 250, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 240, 200, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061912, , BEST, 0, 230N, 882W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 210, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 210, 180, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061918, , BEST, 0, 243N, 884W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 180, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 240, 180, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon AFD from HGX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Major question of the forecast is obviously Potential Tropical
Cyclone 3, located north of the Yucatan Peninsula, currently given
an 80 percent chance of development in the next couple of days by
NHC. At this time, think any developing storm will be heavily
sheared with most impacts to our east. However, any western
deviation in track would begin to slide impacts into our area - it's
a close call, so continue to monitor the forecast.


.SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]...

Through tomorrow, the typical summertime pattern should reign for
most of the area, though by Tuesday afternoon falling heights aloft
should help allow for increased convection over the Gulf waters and
potentially the immediate coast. In the meantime, very isolated
activity along the seabreeze is possible into the evening hours
before the loss of sun wanes activity.


.MEDIUM TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The most impactful portion of the forecast is also the most
uncertain. Fortunately, the guidance envelope has shrunk today.
Still, the west outliers come ashore around Galveston Bay, so we are
not totally out of the woods yet. If we were to assume a west
outlier landfall, the storm should still be heavily sheared to the
east, keeping much of the impacts east of the Houston metro.

The forecast is based off of a very reasonable track presented
through collaboration with NHC and WPC, which occurs even more to
the east of our area. Some borderline likely PoPs crop up late
Wednesday along our eastern border, but the vast majority of the
area will see a chance of rain or drier. Similarly, it may be a bit
breezy our of the northeast on the west side of the cyclone, but
nothing excessive - it may be not even be quite at a level that
would necessitate a wind advisory.

Now, with all that said, we still lack a true center, which makes
model guidance considerable more unreliable that usual, as specific
models may or may not accurately determine where the eventual center
will take hold. If you've been watching the satellite (especially G-
16) today, you've seen multiple little whorls near or ejected from
the convective mass over the Gulf. None so far have taken as a more
dominant center of circulation. Once a more dominant center emerges,
guidance should become more reliable. Until - and even after - then,
continue to monitor the forecasts, and still stand ready to take
necessary precautions in case of a move to the west, as rainfall of
6 to 8 inches or more will be possible in such an instance.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Now, regardless of guidance, this potential TC looks to accelerate
northeast of the area Friday, leaving us with a return to a more
typical June atmosphere. The big change from the past several days,
however, is that the southwestern US ridge will be weaker, and
though the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be working to build
westward, it will largely set up deep onshore flow, which should
boost precipitation potential. So, rather than the very dry weather
we've seen lately, scattered showers and storms should again return
to be more the rule. The retreat of the southwestern US ridge should
also result in slightly cooler temperatures, with highs closer to 90
degrees than the middle 90s.

[Texaspirate11]

Advisory Number 1 for PTC #3

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017
2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 88.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 90.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.9N 91.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.7N 92.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 35.5N 90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 88.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[davidiowx]

Welp, based off the data released by the NH, we will get a tad bit below normal temps and slightly increased rain chances as we will be on the dry side of this system. Of course that can change rapidly so always be prepared.

[DoctorMu]

positioned in middle of GOM, set to MSLP, change the options by clicking on "earth" at left of screen

surface https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

850 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

500 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

250 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,29.970

Very nice. There's a Sauron's eye thing going on for 93L above the Yucatan.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon Updated WPC Day 3 Surface Chart and 7 Day QPF:

[jasons2k]

This is gonna be interesting. They are going with an eastern solution, a little further east than I expected.

[unome]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#THREE

edit - I deleted the graphics, since they've been posted 3 times

[davidiowx]

This is gonna be interesting. They are going with an eastern solution, a little further east than I expected.

Sure looks like it as of now which puts us on the dry side of this system.. I guess they think that ULL will hang around long enough to keep it from moving further west than the euro is showing?

[srainhoutx]

06192017 PTC # Track 4 PM CDT DCtluV0UwAAt67r.jpg

[DoctorMu]

You want cones? this is how you get cones:




24.7N 88.7W

[DoctorMu]

This is gonna be interesting. They are going with an eastern solution, a little further east than I expected.

Sure looks like it as of now which puts us on the dry side of this system.. I guess they think that ULL will hang around long enough to keep it from moving further west than the euro is showing?

It's interesting - Euro and CMC have the center ashore around Galveston still...

ULL rate of dispersion the key it seems.