May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

[jasons2k]

Cap appears to be busting...get ready.

[jasons2k]

Of course, that hole in the line west of Huntsville - I bet that goes right over my house.

[BlueJay]

Mighty dark skies for 6:58 pm DST. Winds have begun to gust a bit, too. I think we are fixing to get drenched for a few minutes!

[jasons2k]

It just can't really pop along and just west of 45. I looked at the cloud tops a few minutes ago and they were fuzzy - not impressive. The towers to the west - and off to the SE even - looked more impressive than the storms to my NW. Not the widespread 1-2" I was hoping for. I'm hoping to see a tenth at this rate. I had this gut feeling, reading last night's NWS discussion about the warm nose this was gonna bust.

[unome]

there were some pretty cool mammatus that moved through here a bit ago, the sunset was hitting them nice

[Katdaddy]

The line thunderstorms can be seen nicely on the GOES-16 visible image this evening as the sun was going down. Currently the line of storms are below severe limits. Already beginning to see darkening skies on the horizon looking in League City. Radar shows the outflow boundary and line of storms moving into N Harris County toward Houston metro. Expecting the storms to move across Houston during the next hour and a half and then toward the coast around 9PM.

[jasons2k]

Pretty much done here. I got more leaves in the yard than raindrops. Lots of wind but nothing to show for it but a mess to clean up. Sprinklers will run as usual tomorrow.

Days like this make me want to find another hobby, like yoga.

[houstonia]

Getting a nice storm and shower in far southwest Houston!

[Ounce]

Pretty much done here. I got more leaves in the yard than raindrops. Lots of wind but nothing to show for it but a mess to clean up. Sprinklers will run as usual tomorrow.

Days like this make me want to find another hobby, like yoga.

There, there, Jasons. You'll get rain...some year. Maybe take up knitting.

[Cromagnum]

Done listening to forecasts and predictions. I'll just stick with what works.

[srainhoutx]

What an absolutely gorgeous early May Morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 50's, no humidity and breezy Northerly winds!

[BlueJay]

May the fourth be with you all on this lovely day!

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Euro and the latest GFS solutions suggest a deep meandering Upper Low developing across the Western US as well as a monsoonal gyre potentially attempting to spin up some Tropical Trouble near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific in about a week. Let it serve as a reminder that the 2017 Hurricane Season is fast approaching. Do you and your family have a Hurricane Action Plan incase Tropical Troubles come our Way? I've seen estimates that nearly 2.5 Million new SE Texas Residents have moved to the Upper Texas Coastal Region since Hurricane Ike in September 2008. Many to most of those new residents have never experienced a land falling Tropical Cyclone.

[jasons2k]

Wow, it's hard to believe we've had that many more residents move-in since then. Can you imagine another Katrina-like traffic jam?

It is a beautiful day. Enjoy it while it lasts - may be the last 50's we see until October.

[srainhoutx]

Another pleasant weather day ahead with low dew points and below normal temperatures. Looking ahead to next week, the overnight computer guidance continues to advertise a deepening Western trough and growing potential for a developing tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The monsoonal trough is becoming rather agitated across portions of the Western Caribbean Sea, Central America and the Eastern Pacific. We will continue to monitor developments in the days ahead for the possibility for increasing moisture and a chance of rain return around mid next week.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR cigs expected to scatter out toward evening with VFR
conditions expected through 05-08z. MVFR ceilings are then
expected to develop and expand across area TAF sites by morning.
Winds decrease this evening but never fully decouple. MVFR cigs
will persist for much of the morning with cigs gradually lifting
and scattering out in the afternoon. Although capping looks rather
stout, several of the short term models are showing some potential
for some light showers beneath the cap. Feel probabilities for
rain are too slight to mention in TAF`s. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/

UPDATE...
Moisture creeping in from the southwest is evident on CRP`s
12Z sounding (1.36 inches) in relation LCH`s (0.58 inches)...and
also evident in the increased cloud cover and the way it feels
out there. Current temperatures are already in the upper 70s
and are forecast to top out in the average middle 80s by mid-
afternoon. Southeast Louisiana-centered high pressure has turned
the gradient around to onshore so southerly winds are here to stay
through the majority of the work week...dew points will be back
up into the upper 60s to lower 70s by late tomorrow. Slight
daytime shower chances will be primarily focused to the west and
southwest of Houston Tuesday. Thus...expect warm humid and cloudier
conditions with a brief passing shower through Thursday. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/

MARINE...
Light to moderate south to southeast winds will
persist through Thursday night. Caution level
winds and/or seas could occasionally be reached.
A cold front will move off the coast late Friday
or Friday night with a light to moderate offshore
flow developing in its wake. Over the weekend and
into the start of next week, look for light to
moderate east to southeast winds to gradually
return to the area as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 64 86 67 88 / 0 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 66 85 68 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 73 81 74 82 / 0 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...43

[CrashTestDummy]

Wow, it's hard to believe we've had that many more residents move-in since then. Can you imagine another Katrina-like traffic jam?

It is a beautiful day. Enjoy it while it lasts - may be the last 50's we see until October.

Or the line around the Home Depot/Lowes waiting for plywood before a storm makes landfall!!

Next weekend, we change the oil in the generators and test them.

[BlueJay]

Bulletin: We had a very brief shower here about an hour ago. What a nice surprise!

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ensemble guidance suggests changes may be brewing, particularly next week with several synoptic and Hemispheric features coming together that may impact our Region. Tropical Storm Adrian has formed in the Eastern Pacific off the Central American Pacific Coast and is expected to meander NW and then turn toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A rather deep Western trough combines with a favorable MJO with high moisture content from the Central and Eastern Pacific as well as mid and upper level moisture from Adrian and a strong return flow off the Gulf of Mexico that looks to increase rainfall chances across much of the Lone Star State. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the sensible weather forecast will bring more that 3 days out, it will be worth monitoring the trends after a very quiet period in our local weather pattern.

The attachment 05102017 ECMWF MJO ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif is no longer available

[DoctorMu]

The overnight ensemble guidance suggests changes may be brewing, particularly next week with several synoptic and Hemispheric features coming together that may impact our Region. Tropical Storm Adrian has formed in the Eastern Pacific off the Central American Pacific Coast and is expected to meander NW and then turn toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A rather deep Western trough combines with a favorable MJO with high moisture content from the Central and Eastern Pacific as well as mid and upper level moisture from Adrian and a strong return flow off the Gulf of Mexico that looks to increase rainfall chances across much of the Lone Star State. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the sensible weather forecast will bring more that 3 days out, it will be worth monitoring the trends after a very quiet period in our local weather pattern.

05102017 00Z EC ENS ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

05102017 ECMWF MJO ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

05102017 TRMM 00Z 28.gif

We could use some rain...it was dry as a bone for a week while out of town. Ironically we drove through 1500 miles of rain, some torrential from east Texas on.