April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

[DoctorMu]

Seeing some development along the immediate coast and also around Victoria and will be watching the trend over the next several hours. The Tornado Watch was previously cancelled for the Houston area. Many thoughts to our friends in LA dealing with a dangerous and life threatening event.

That cell coming out of Victoria looks kinda nasty. We learned a bit about the tail end of Balrog's whip with the last mini-tornado outbreak.

[javakah]

While the cell out of Victoria does look kind of nasty, it's really seemed like there are some factors inhibiting cells once they hit Wharton county. I'm guessing that it will be fairly weakened by the time it gets to Fort Bend.

[Katdaddy]

A strong cell SW of Houston metro along the Middle TX Coast NE of Victoria and looking nice on satellite.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
520 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

TXZ226-235-236-022300-
Wharton TX-Jackson TX-Matagorda TX-
520 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WHARTON...SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 520 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strengthening strong
thunderstorm near Lolita, or 8 miles southeast of Edna, moving east
at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Bay City, Edna, Ganado, La Ward, Lolita, Markham,
Blessing, Lake Texana Dam, Midfield and Danevang.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Texana, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

[Katdaddy]

The strong cell SW of Houston has gone severe.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
South central Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Jackson County in south central Texas...
Northwestern Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 537 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast
of La Ward, or 14 miles east of Edna, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Ganado, La Ward, Markham, Blessing, Midfield and Danevang.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[Katdaddy]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
603 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

TXC321-481-022345-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170402T2345Z/
Wharton TX-Matagorda TX-
603 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHARTON AND NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTIES...

At 603 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of El Campo, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported windshields smashed by large hail
in Jackson county by this storm.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Boling-Iago and Danevang.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
League City.

[DoctorMu]

While the cell out of Victoria does look kind of nasty, it's really seemed like there are some factors inhibiting cells once they hit Wharton county. I'm guessing that it will be fairly weakened by the time it gets to Fort Bend.

...or not.

Sun's running out of gas now...

[javakah]

While the cell out of Victoria does look kind of nasty, it's really seemed like there are some factors inhibiting cells once they hit Wharton county. I'm guessing that it will be fairly weakened by the time it gets to Fort Bend.

...or not.

I think you might have called that a bit too early...

[DoctorMu]

While the cell out of Victoria does look kind of nasty, it's really seemed like there are some factors inhibiting cells once they hit Wharton county. I'm guessing that it will be fairly weakened by the time it gets to Fort Bend.

...or not.

I think you might have called that a bit too early...

Au contraire - the cell got to Fort Bend Co strong, but collapsed as solar heating faded a county past Wharton...

[ticka1]

and it went poof like everything else this weekend... we in for a major dry spell the rest of the month?

[Katdaddy]

I am very thankful SE TX was spared a dangerous and life threatening event this weekend but many thoughts and prayers to our neighbors in extreme ETX and LA. The Houston-Galveston areas dodged a bullet today. You may have have canceled plans that was a nuisance but be thankful you still have a home and family. Yes, an extreme statement but true with the forecasted significant parameters that were place but moved NE last night. Additional severe weather events will occur this Spring and we may not be as lucky again. Our Houston-Galveston NWS, Storm Prediction Center, and local news media did an excellent job of getting the information out there to the public well in advance of the potential event. Be thankful and count your Blessings.

[Texaspirate11]

I am very thankful SE TX was spared a dangerous and life threatening event this weekend but many thoughts and prayers to our neighbors in extreme ETX and LA. The Houston-Galveston areas dodged a bullet today. You may have have canceled plans that was a nuisance but be thankful you still have a home and family. Yes, an extreme statement but true with the forecasted significant parameters that were place but moved NE last night. Additional severe weather events will occur this Spring and we may not be as lucky again. Our Houston-Galveston NWS, Storm Prediction Center, and local news media did an excellent job of getting the information out there to the public well in advance of the potential event. Be thankful and count your Blessings.

Blessed it was a "bust" - but for the Mother & daughter who died in Breaux Bridges due to the weather, it was a tragedy.
Nice write up by our NWS. Here is a portion of it on our storm. Kudos to them and everyone who keeps us safe.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017/

Today`s event is coming to a close...with the only action left on
the radar that of thunderstorms racing up ahead of an early
outflow boundary that propagated from a ragged line of storms just
northwest of the city. Although not a complete bust as there have
been reports of trees downed and flooded roadways across the
northern CWA (4 to 5 inches of storm total precipitation from
central Grimes County northeast into Houston County)...the bulk of
the population (i.e., Houston metro) did not experience any
severe thunderstorm activity. With such a ripe downstream
environment conducive for the formation of tornadic cells that are
now impacting SHV and LCH`s area...the greater Houston area did
dodge a bullet. The main `why`s` to this may be pinned on poor
upper air/jet dynamics...the upper low`s slow movement into the
Big Bend region this afternoon really placed the best diffulence
west of us. The gust front generated by the QLCS over the western
CWA early this afternoon blew through the city and virtually
outraced the upstream cells...shutting the door on future
development as rich and warm inflow was cut off by lower level
cool moist downdraft air. Activity flaring up over Jackson County
may need to be monitored but all high rez solutions as not doing
anything with its future evolution.

[unome]

well said Texaspirate11

now on to a chamber of commerce week ahead !

https://forecast-v3.weather.gov/point/29.7575,-95.3636

[tireman4]

I am very thankful SE TX was spared a dangerous and life threatening event this weekend but many thoughts and prayers to our neighbors in extreme ETX and LA. The Houston-Galveston areas dodged a bullet today. You may have have canceled plans that was a nuisance but be thankful you still have a home and family. Yes, an extreme statement but true with the forecasted significant parameters that were place but moved NE last night. Additional severe weather events will occur this Spring and we may not be as lucky again. Our Houston-Galveston NWS, Storm Prediction Center, and local news media did an excellent job of getting the information out there to the public well in advance of the potential event. Be thankful and count your Blessings.

Let me echo what Katdaddy stated. He and I spoke at length on what can/could/might happen on Sunday. We were very fortunate to dodge a bullet on this system. The parameters were all there, but as Steve stated, it was also a might for this and he did hint this system could move NE. It did. East Texas and Central Lousiana did not fare so well ( Alexandria, for one). The pro mets here ( Steve, Andrew, David, Brooks, Wxman57 and Jeff) did a great job in analyzing and forecasting. We are thankful they take the time ( they are and were very busy this weekend) to help us out. I also echo what Katdaddy stated about the NWS, SPC and the Weather Channel. They did a great job (TWC in the afternoon) in warning and forecasting. To those who screamed bust, Meteorology is not an exact science. You have hits and misses. Forecasts can be adapted and shaped to what is happening in "now" time. Please remember that as this year goes on.

[Texaspirate11]

NWS must be feeling a bit relieved after yesterday. I want to share a bit of a laugh to kick off Monday:
HGX NWS:
Short term disco: "If you`re looking for excitement in your AFD, skip this section and move on to the Long Term portion."
"Long Term disco" If you came to the long term section of the AFD looking for something exciting...LOL"

So happy we can laugh a bit today....and again, they do a yeoman's job.

[houstonia]

I like what he says later too... " There are no explicit records forecast, but we are uncomfortably close at both Bush and Hobby, and a warmer than forecast day might be enough to do it. Yes, I am forecasting high temps warmer than the day before the cold front. Yes, I am still calling it a cold front."

You're right - it seems they are feeling giddy. I think they, as well as a lot of other eom types, were VERY worried about the potential yesterday. I know I was. I had a bad feeling about the storms and I feel like it was a very narrow miss. I'm still worried about future storms in this warmer than usual season.

NWS must be feeling a bit relieved after yesterday. I want to share a bit of a laugh to kick off Monday:
HGX NWS:
Short term disco: "If you`re looking for excitement in your AFD, skip this section and move on to the Long Term portion."
"Long Term disco" If you came to the long term section of the AFD looking for something exciting...LOL"

So happy we can laugh a bit today....and again, they do a yeoman's job.

[tireman4]

Not sure if Brooks will come on this week, but this was from his Facebook page. I say, amen to what the gentleman stated in his Facebook page.

I shake my head in dismay every time I read a comment from somebody who criticizes weather forecasters with a statement like, "It's the only job where you can be wrong all the time and still pick up a paycheck." Here's the deal: A meteorologist is trying to predict an act of God. And the predictions are usually right. A weather forecast isn't a contractual promise, it's a statement of probability, an educated guess. Most of the time the prediction comes true, but sometimes it doesn't. When I was in TV news I told people, "If you want to talk to somebody who always knows exactly what the weather will be like tomorrow, you need to turn off your TV and go to church."

[Ptarmigan]

It can be a bust for that someone got no severe weather. For others it is a bust because they got severe weather. I think the high risk was the right call for Northeast Texas and Louisiana.

[Katdaddy]

Another cool morning to start the day but expect near record highs and mostly sunny skis across SE TX before a cool front moves across the area tonight. A few light showers and clouds will accompany the front but will be followed beautiful cooler weather through the end of week with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. A gradual warming can be expected over the weekend with continued mostly sunny skies.

The S Central Plains into the Ozarks, Central Gulf, and portions of the SE US have a severe threat for today. This threat will push into the SE US tomorrow where a Moderate Risk has been issued. If you have family, friends, or co-workers in the SE US; make sure they are weather aware tomorrow.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 041144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.AVIATION...
Some patchy MVFR/IFR fog that has developed early this morning will
lift by 14-15Z. VFR for the rest of the day with just some high
clouds and increasing south winds. Think we`ll see some MVFR
ceilings develop this evening and maybe some fog overnight ahead
of a cold front. Becoming VFR with winds shifting to the NW and
possibly becoming gusty behind the front as it moves through the
entire area late tonight/Thursday morning. VFR tomorrow with just
some high clouds along with strong and gusty northwest winds. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

Discussion...
A largely quiet week of weather is expected. A frontal passage
tonight will usher in cooler and much drier air, but chances for
rain max out at light showers at the rainiest - and the most
likely scenario is probably a dry passage. After that, gorgeous
conditions (by this native Wisconsite`s standards, anyway) until
our next decent shot at rain early next week.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Satellite shows some high clouds cruising across Southeast Texas
tonight, but skies are otherwise clear. The quiet weather has
allowed for a stout nighttime inversion to set up - this is also
evident with the loss of signal from over-the-air channels on our
situational awareness displays (if breaking news erupts overnight
requiring weather support, we will have to find out online or with
a phone call). The return of onshore flow has helped bring in a
shallow, low level air mass, and all of these factors combine to
allow for some patchy fog across most of the area outside of the
Houston heat island. At worst, Crockett briefly dipped to 2 1/2
mile visibility, but most impacts have been light so far, and
don`t expect that to change by morning, particularly as winds are
expected to pick up.

Another sunny day is expected today with plenty of warmth ahead of
yet another cold front expected late tonight. As with yesterday,
Galveston and College Station`s record highs should be safe
(though it`s getting close at CLL), while the forecast explicitly
forecasts ties of the records at both Intercontinental and Hobby.
We may be on record watch this afternoon...

SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM [Tonight Through the Weekend]...
The front should work its way through late tonight. Though we`ve
had enough moisture return for shallow surface impacts, this
moisture is extremely shallow - model progs of precipitable water
are in the 0.75 to 1.0 inch range, exclusively found in the lowest
2000 or so feet. There might be enough moisture and support for
vertical motion along the front that we might be able to squeeze
out some shallow, light showers. But that`s likely the high-end
scenario. Probably not wise to bank on rain with this front.

Behind the front, we do see some pretty stout northwest winds,
with 30-35 knots at 850mb. Expect that to mix down and support
some gusty conditions, particularly over the waters. While it
should be noticeably breezier over the land, don`t think at this
time that it will be enough to need any wind advisories, though it
may be close at the coast Wednesday morning. There may be some
implications for fire weather in lighter fuels (more on that
below). Colder and much drier air should follow on the northwest
flow, knocking mid to late week temperatures back into the low to
mid 70s (aka near or just slightly below seasonal averages).

Ridging throughout the column will establish itself over Texas on
Thursday, and continue into the weekend, with onshore flow
resuming by Fridayish as the surface high drifts east. This will
help establish a warming trend back into the 80s, as well as
gradually increasing humidity.

LONG TERM [Early Next Week]...
Despite relatively good model agreement into the weekend, things
start to blow up next week, right around the time we begin to look
for our next period of active weather. There`s pretty good
agreement in an upper trough in the northern stream moving through
the Central US at this time, and on its own probably isn`t deep
enough to support a real strong front into Southeast Texas. But
that`s about where the good agreement ends. The Euro scoots a vort
max through the southern stream, which helps push the front to the
coast, where it brings us some rain Monday afternoon/night. (It
then stalls the front, keeping rain chances into midweek, then
forms a surface low on this coastal trough to give us even more
rain to close the week, but let`s ignore that for now). On the
other end, the GFS does no such thing, and stalls out the front
northwest of our area, until a vort max ejected out of the next
upper trough in the pattern helps nudge it a little more - just
enough to bring rain to the northwesternmost edge of our area of
responsibility. For what it`s worth, the Canadian is between the
two, but probably more like the GFS.

Looking at the ensembles, there isn`t a ton of help - outside of
a couple outliers, the GEFS strongly backs up the GFS op scenario.
Meanwhile, the EPS is maybe a bit less in support of the Euro,
keeping near/just above normal heights over our area early next
week, but it does also show a signal of the boosting shortwave,
too. So, when it doubt...blend! I`ve thrown in some slight
chance/chance PoPs in deference to the Euro early next week, but
these are some tempered PoPs that will almost assuredly move up or
down once the true picture begins to come into focus.

MARINE...
Onshore winds are around 15 knots early this morning, and expect
speeds to remain generally in a 10 to 15 knots range for most of
the day. If winds get just a little bit higher, we`ll need to
issue caution flags for parts of the area. The next cold front is
still on schedule to move off the coast before sunrise tomorrow
morning. At this time, it looks like we`ll need caution flags or
advisories for the Bays and advisories for the 00-60m nm waters as
northwest winds behind the front strengthen to around 20 to 25
knots and gusty. Seas will also build behind the front, currently
expected to increase to 6 to 8 feet with occasional heights up to
10 feet. Winds and seas will gradually come down Wednesday night
through Friday as high pressure builds into the area. Onshore
winds return late on Friday and on into Friday night as the high
moves off to the east, then strengthen over the weekend in
response to the next developing system out west. 42

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated on Wednesday mainly
due to the combination of lowering relative humidities (upper 20s to
lower 30s in the afternoon) and gusty northwest to north winds of 15
to 25 mph. On Thursday, humidities are currently expected to drop
even lower (into the lower to mid 20s), but winds will be much
weaker (around 5 to 10 mph). 42

CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperature records for Tuesday (year)/Forecast for
Today:

College Station: 90 F (1918)/88 F
Houston (IAH): 88 F (1897)/88 F
Houston (Hobby): 87 F (1940)/87 F
Galveston: 82 F (2011)/79 F

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 54 74 48 76 / 0 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 89 62 76 51 77 / 0 20 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 68 75 61 73 / 0 20 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...42
MARINE...42
FIRE WEATHER...42
CLIMATE...Luchs

[jasons2k]

I had a high of 93F today.