January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

A stormy start to 2017…very nice today…cold air mass arrives tomorrow.

Cold arctic air mass is surging down the high plains this morning and an initial highly modified piece of this air mass will cross SE TX tonight. Before the front arrives tonight…another day of warm temperatures with highs in the 70’s across all of the area. Today will be the last day of 70’s for at least the next week.

Shallow modified arctic boundary arrives tonight with cold air advection ongoing tonight into Wednesday. Shallow air mass being overrun by warm air just above the surface will result in the formation of a stratus deck which will help keep highs on Wednesday in the 50’s or about 20 degrees colder than today. Not expecting any rainfall with the front given a very dry air mass that will be in place.

Secondary and much colder arctic surge will arrive Thursday and usher in daytime temperatures likely falling into the lower 40’s under increasing NW winds. Friday will be cold with lows in the 30’s and highs near 40 and these temperatures may be generously warm given the tendency of models to show higher values within arctic air masses.

Friday into Saturday models are starting to come into better agreement that a strong short wave will drop SE in the NW flow aloft and across NE TX and the southern US. With a cold arctic air mass in place the lift provided by this system may produce a large swatch of mixed precipitation from TX eastward across the southern US. Main question at this time is how much moisture is able to be brought northward into the cold air mass and just how cold will the air mass be especially late Friday into early Saturday. For now will continue to keep everything a very cold rain across all of SE TX, but will need to watch temperature trends very closely from College Station to Lake Livingston during this period for any threat for freezing rain although this potential still remains low at this time.

Monday Storm Reports:
Crockett, Houston: Power lines blown down in the City of Crockett

12NNW Kennard, Houston: Trees down near HWY 21 and FM 227

Spring, Harris: Houston OEM reported trees down in Spring

Bunker Hill Village, Harris: Trees down near Briar Forest and Gessner

5NE Houston, Harris: Trees down near Kashmere Gardens

Cypress, Harris: 55mph wind gust recorded at Blackhorse Ranch Subdivision.

Jacinto City, Harris: Houston FD reported light poles downed on Century Dr.

Cleveland, Liberty: Trees down on CR 331

20 SSE Anahuac, Galveston: 40mph wind gust measured at Rollover Pass

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This is just the 3rd year in a row of the winter that wasn't in Houston. We still havent dipped below 35 degrees at my house since January of 2014.

You must live on the coast. Late Winter 2015 had me below freezing a few times.

I've been below freezing this Winter 3 times.




I just came back from Montana, where I was able to enjoy 2-3 feet of snow, temps ranging from -5 to 20, and my God, I loved every second of it. The wife and I are discussing relocating to SW Montana (Bozeman area). No offense to those of you who love SE Texas , but outside of the fantastic money making opportunities, I am not a fan of Houston. My career has been the only thing keeping me here. I do enjoy Montgomery County and the quiet out here, but that is eroding yearly.

With that said, the Euro is trying to squeeze out a little something for us at 102 hours. I wouldn't hold my breath though.

[DoctorMu]

Timing is everything.

[jasons2k]

I've had just the one light freeze so far. Good enough for me. I love snow and cold...when I visit the mountains...just not in my back yard. On second thought, I love snow any time...just not the freeze damage to tropical plants. I'd move to Naples or Sarasota if I didn't work for such an amazing company here. My relatives visiting from Dunedin felt right at home during the break.

One observation regarding the models...seems like the GFS is the same this year as it has been as long as I can remember --> it sees cold in the long range, then loses it in the mid-range, then "Surprise surprise surprise!!" the air is colder/deeper/faster than anyone could have imagined & forecasts get adjusted in mad scramble to keep up.

Don't we ever learn? Been this way for what, 15 or 20 years now? I guess it's hard to tell when the GFS is crying wolf because the long term is pretty much always some snow-mageddon that never materializes.

[ticka1]

This is just the 3rd year in a row of the winter that wasn't in Houston. We still havent dipped below 35 degrees at my house since January of 2014.

You must live on the coast. Late Winter 2015 had me below freezing a few times.

I've been below freezing this Winter 3 times.




I just came back from Montana, where I was able to enjoy 2-3 feet of snow, temps ranging from -5 to 20, and my God, I loved every second of it. The wife and I are discussing relocating to SW Montana (Bozeman area). No offense to those of you who love SE Texas , but outside of the fantastic money making opportunities, I am not a fan of Houston. My career has been the only thing keeping me here. I do enjoy Montgomery County and the quiet out here, but that is eroding yearly.

With that said, the Euro is trying to squeeze out a little something for us at 102 hours. I wouldn't hold my breath though.

we went to red river nm before christmas and had temps down to -14 one night in angel fire. Loved all the snow. called it my happy place - maybe i can retire up there.

[Montgomery]

By mid next week, it appears we rise back to close or above 80 again.

[Katdaddy]

Its a much cooler morning across SE TX after yesterday evening's cold front moved across SE TX. Expect highs in the 50s rather than 70s this afternoon. Slightly warmer temps tomorrow before additional cold air filters into SE TX Thursday night through the weekend with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s with a few upper 20s across N portions of SE TX. Rain chances increase Thursday afternoon into Friday.

[Portastorm]

Friday looks to be a close call here in the Austin area IF the Euro is right. It develops some rather robust drizzle as overrunning takes hold in the skies above. Two nights ago the 0z Euro showed this as did yesterday's 12z albeit a bit lighter on QPF. Surface temps right now appear to be a few degrees too warm for any freezing precip. But if the Euro is too warm by a few degrees we could have some trouble. Best bet for any wintry mischief appears to be in patchy spots in the Hill Country.

The GFS and NAM show none of this. I'll be eager later this morning to see the Tech WRF model and what it shows. More times than not this is an excellent hi-res, short range model for Texas weather.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Initial surge of cold air has arrived overnight…much stronger surge will arrive late Thursday.

Frontal boundary has progressed well offshore overnight with cold air advection having lowered temperatures into the 40’s across the area. Low level clouds trapped under the frontal inversion have been advecting across the region. Current cloud deck is advancing SSW/SW along roughly I-45 with mainly clear conditions to the west. NAM and short term models show this deck covering much of SE TX by late morning and this should prevent temperatures from warming much out of the 50’s today. However clouds or lack of them this time of year can make for large temperature busts…and if the skies scatter out then temperatures would easily rise into the 60’s.

Surface high moves eastward allowing a return of southerly winds on Thursday which will help bump temperatures back into the mid 60’s before the bottom falls out Thursday night. Moisture return on Thursday ahead of the secondary arctic surge looks to be just enough for a few light showers mainly along and south of US 59.

Secondary arctic boundary will move across the area late Thursday with temperatures tumbling on Friday. Will lower temperatures into the mid 30’s during the day on Friday north of HWY 105 and near 40 N of US 59 under strong cold air advection. An upper level short wave will drop SE across OK/N TX Friday and help induce a weak coastal low near Brownsville which will move NE Friday into Friday night. NAM and GFS soundings show a low level saturated layer with temperatures within this layer at or below freezing by Friday evening. Surface dewpoints fall into the upper 20’s from CLL to Lake Livingston by mid afternoon which would support the potential for wet bulb cooling of mid 30 degree surface temperatures toward freezing. Main question is just how much moisture will be available and if the atmosphere will be moist enough to produce precipitation.

Will go with light rain on Friday and Friday evening south of HWY 105 and a light rain/sleet mixture north of HWY 105…could probably add light freezing rain from College Station to Lake Livingston, but not confident enough yet that the surface temperature will reach freezing before the rain ends. I am a little worried that the models may not be handling the cold air correctly since they have been trending colder with each run and this could put some of those northern areas near the critical freezing threshold earlier on Friday. For now not expecting any impacts from any freezing/frozen precipitation if any actually occurs.

Very cold conditions will continue through the entire weekend with lows likely into the 20’s N of I-10 on Saturday morning and into the 20’s most areas Sunday morning with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 40’s and upper 40’s on Sunday.

[Heat Miser]

My powers grow stronger.

[Karen]

Do we have another front coming next week? Looks to be getting warm again next week. Next weekend is marathon weekend 70's will be to hot for the runners.

[DoctorMu]

45°F and cloudy in College Station. We'll struggle to rise above 50°F today.

[jasons2k]

NWS is forecasting a chilly 27F at my place Saturday night. Brrrr.

[DoctorMu]

45°F and cloudy in College Station. We'll struggle to rise above 50°F today.

It won't even be close - stalled at 46°F.

[Katdaddy]

A cold front will move off the coast later this evening bringing dropping temps overnight and through Friday with 20-30% chance of cold rain Friday The potential off any light Winter precip across N portions of SE TX have been removed from the forecast. Our NTX friends however have Winter precip in their forecast especially along and N of I-20 to the Red River. Upper 20s N of Houston with a light freeze along the inland coastal counties both Friday and Saturday night. A warming trend begins Monday with mid 70s by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to see some subtle changes in the GFS and the shorter range SREF suggesting at bit more lift and slightly higher available moisture suggesting the possibility of a bit more snow along and S of the Red River and the possibility of some sleet pellets N of I-10 tomorrow afternoon as the Coastal low develops. Water Vapor imagery shows the shortwave over Northern California about to start its trek ESE in the mean upper flow. Will need to monitor the trends later today and tonight for any unexpected changes in the sensible weather.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff:

Arctic air mass will move across the area tonight…bringing a period of cold conditions through the weekend.

Arctic boundary entering the northern panhandle this morning will surge southward across TX today. Temperatures north of this boundary are very cold with Amarillo currently at 12 degrees. Ahead of this boundary weak warm air advection is ongoing across SE TX with a stratus cloud deck having moved into the region overnight. Radar is showing a few light returns along the coast which may actually be some drizzle or very light rain. Cloud deck will lower and thicken today with patches of light rain or drizzle and generally lowering visibilities occurring by this afternoon. Not expecting much rain ahead of the front with moisture fairly limited over the area.

Main impact will be the onset of strong cold air advection tonight and a very cold Friday under cloudy skies, strong N winds, and patchy drizzle/light rain. Temperatures around midnight in the 40’s will fall into the 30’s during the day on Friday and likely hold in the mid to upper 30’s for most areas all day. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s are likely Friday. Air mass is looking colder and drier with each model run which helps to reduce the threat of any freezing rain or sleet. Will maintain everything liquid…and what falls show be light anyhow. Freezing line will advance into SE TX early Friday evening, but think all the drizzle will be over by that time.

Saturday morning low temperatures will fall into the 20’s over a large part of the area even with clouds and strong winds. Wind chills Friday night will be miserably cold with values solidly in the 10’s. May need a Wind Chill Advisory for our N/NW counties Friday night as values could fall below 13 degrees. Since winds will remain elevated freeze event Saturday morning will be advective in nature which tend to be more damaging than the more normal radiative freezes in this area. Most areas have already experienced a freeze back in mid December…so a freeze warning will not likely be issued…although the recent warmth of late has resulted in some vegetation budding…and this sensitive growth will be damaged or killed.

Highs on Saturday will be cold in the low 40’s even with clearing skies and as the arctic high pressure cell develops down the plains and into TX Saturday night…clear skies, light winds, and dewpoints in the upper 10’s/low 20’s point to a very cold night over the area. Latest GFS MOS numbers take IAH down to 25 and CLL to 22. Could be looking at hard freeze warning conditions north of HWY 105 for Sunday morning with several hours in the low to mid 20’s. This looks a little more questionable for areas between I-10 and HWY 105…but is possible especially as models have been trending colder. Areas that look to fall toward the lower 20’s for more than a few hours is where concern for any exposed pipes would increase. Will likely see upper 20’s all the way to the coastal counties.

[redneckweather]

If we are going to see a sleet pellet or two, this is pretty much the perfect scenario. I wouldn't be surprised at all if sleet reports start rolling in north of I-10 tomorrow.

[Heat Miser]

I impress even myself. How did I know, Srain?
I would love to be surprised and as one meteorologist for KHOU used to say quite often "A fly in the ointment" would really make my day.
It's that fly in the ointment that makes weather interesting to me. You can never truly predict exactly what the weather will do. Man's futile attempts amuse me.

[Texaspirate11]

Thought our NWS took the word Sleet out of the package?