December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

[Andrew]

Models also want to slow the front into thursday morning/midday which would also limit cold air advection for Friday morning. I still think models are coming in a little to slow for the cold air and that could make a huge difference. Every run by both globals seem to switch back and forth.

[jasons2k]

I've had a total of 3.75" over the last few days. So thankful for the rain - it will really help the plants to have moist soil before the freeze.

[ticka1]

still getting a misting rain here in baytown...and cold. have to say i am loving this weather!

[Ounce]

I've had a total of 3.75" over the last few days. So thankful for the rain - it will really help the plants to have moist soil before the freeze.

[Ptarmigan]

Models also want to slow the front into thursday morning/midday which would also limit cold air advection for Friday morning. I still think models are coming in a little to slow for the cold air and that could make a huge difference. Every run by both globals seem to switch back and forth.

Cold airs that come from negative East Pacific Oscillatio (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) are generally shallow compared to cold air from negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

[unome]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
411 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning split channel satellite imagery shows low clouds persisting north of a College Station to Tomball to Winnie line, with patchy fog having developed south of this line where skies have cleared. Expect these low clouds to gradually lift later this morning as isentropic upglide on the 295K surface associated with yesterday's surface low decreases. Radiational cooling where clouds have thinned or cleared combined with recent rainfall the region has received will result in additional fog development through sunrise and continuing to monitor visibilities for a possible Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. May see any fog that develops persist mid to late morning (10-11 AM CST) as forecast soundings indicate the morning inversion may be slow to lift, delaying daytime mixing.

Surface analysis as of 06Z /12 AM CST/ showed a cold front surging through the Texas Panhandle and this front will slide into Southeast Texas later today, entering the region sometime early to mid afternoon. NAM and GFS BUFR Soundings for College Station and Lufkin both show enough low level saturation behind the front to produce some patchy drizzle across the northern counties this afternoon and eastern counties tonight. Otherwise, westerly winds ahead of the front today will allow areas south of Interstate 10 to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s. Areas north of Interstate 10 look to rise into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another cool night is expected tonight with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Today's front is expected to stall near the coast tonight, lifting north as warm front during the day on Wednesday ahead of the next (much stronger) cold front. A few showers will be possible as the cold front approaches Wednesday afternoon, with scattered showers developing along the front Wednesday night as ascent associated with the front increases. This activity will shift into the Gulf Thursday morning as the front clears the region.

Strong cold air advection behind the front during the day on Thursday will result in breezy to windy conditions across Southeast Texas, with high temperatures only rising into the mid 40s to mid 50s. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed along the Upper Texas coast and may be needed across the entire region with north winds increasing into at least the 15 to 25 MPH range (with stronger gusts). Winds will decrease overnight Thursday as a 1040 MB surface high builds into Texas.

Morning lows on Friday will be the coldest the region has seen this season, with freezing temperatures extending as far south as the Interstate 10 corridor. There is still some uncertainty on how cold it will get on Friday morning. GFS and European MOS guidance differ about 3-4 degrees on low temperatures across much of the region, and this is a result of how they resolve clouds behind the front. Soundings show a thin layer of moisture between 700-800 MB persisting overnight Thursday behind the front (also evident in some of the RH progs) that may inhibit some radiational heat loss overnight. However, given the strength of the cold front am inclined to side with moisture/clouds being scoured out and have trended towards colder guidance. Freeze Warnings are expected Friday morning, with temperatures below 32 degrees F for several hours north of Interstate 10. Due to urban heat island effects, the Houston metro may not quite reach freezing but will still be cold with temperatures in the mid 30s.

Northerly winds and dry conditions will persist Friday into Saturday, before surface high pressure sliding east of the region allows for return flow by late Saturday. Low rain chances creep back into the forecast Saturday and Sunday as moisture returns. This returning moisture and warm air advection will allow temperatures to dramatically rebound this weekend, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s on Saturday rising into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday. Rain chances will continue to increase late Sunday into Monday as the next cold front moves into the region.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
West winds this morning will gradually veer to the north tonight as a weak cold front over N TX slides south. A cold front will move off the coast Wednesday night with strong cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient helping to generate strong offshore winds late Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will gust to gale force Thursday morning and a Gale Watch will likely be issued later today. Strong winds will likely persist Thursday night into early Friday. Winds will begin to veer to the east Friday night as surface high pressure moves east of the region. Onshore winds will strengthen Saturday and early Sunday as low pressure develops over the Texas panhandle. Another cold front will cross the coast Sunday night with a strong offshore flow redeveloping. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 46 63 41 45 / 10 10 20 40 10
Houston (IAH) 69 48 68 47 50 / 0 0 10 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 69 57 67 53 55 / 0 0 10 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM... SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST early this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM... Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will cross the area late Wednesday…freeze expected many areas Friday morning N of I-10

The storm system that brought the weekend heavy rainfall and 14.77 inches of rainfall at Texas City has progressed east of the region. IR images show low clouds and some fog over portions of the area this morning which should lift and scattered out by mid morning. Weak cold front over the TX panhandle will move southward and into the area this afternoon. RH progs behind this boundary show the air mass saturating with weak lift so expect low clouds, fog and drizzle to onset with the passage of the weak front and last for much of the night. Highs will be tricky today as areas behind the front will stay in the 60’s while west winds south of the boundary and mostly sunny skies push highs to near 70.

Front moves back northward on Wednesday as a warm front and helps to allow better moisture recovery across the area ahead of a strong NW Canada air mass which is currently pushing down the plains. This strong cold front will reach TX early tomorrow morning and move off the coast before sunrise Thursday. Strong lift with the front will likely generate scattered showers Wednesday afternoon and evening…but the big change will be the onset of significant cold air advection and a cold modified arctic air mass.

Will show highs temperatures in the low 60’s Thursday before sunrise with temperatures falling into the mid 40’s during the day on Thursday under strong NW winds of 15-30mph with higher gusts and cloudy skies. 1040mb surface high builds into TX Thursday evening which should help weaken the winds, but GFS and ECMWF keep a little bit of mid level moisture trapped in the 850-700mb level which could keep a mid level deck of thin clouds in place into the overnight hours. These clouds along with how quickly wind decrease will be critical in just how cold temperature fall by Friday morning. Currently thinking areas north of I-10 where the clouds are most likely to clear and winds go nearly calm will see a freeze. A freeze warning will likely be required for portions of the area for Friday morning.

Large surface high starts moving eastward late Friday with southerly winds returning for the weekend along with an increase in clouds and by Sunday rain chances. May need to watch Friday night/Saturday morning for another freeze potential…but this will depend on how quickly winds turn back to the south. Experience with these cold surface highs would suggest the second night after the frontal passage tends to be the coldest as long as winds remain weak/offshore.

Maximum 72 Hr Rainfall Totals:

Texas City Moses Lake: 14.77
Bayou Vista: 12.94
Chocolate Bayou near Alvin: 9.43
Galveston Causeway: 9.32
Jamaica Beach: 9.20
Galveston: 9.17
8 SSW Stowell: 8.58
11 WSW Huntsville: 8.37
La Marque: 7.88
2WNW Huntsville: 7.44
Bacliff: 7.43
Freeport: 7.00
Kemah: 6.90
7 ESE Waller: 6.36
Huntsville: 6.24
Brookshire: 6.12
Taylor Lake: 5.76
Montgomery: 5.44
League City: 5.43
Pinehurst: 5.37
4 WNW Pattison: 5.20
Brazos River at US 290: 5.19
Stagecoach: 5.12
Fulshear: 5.05
Wharton: 4.93
Onalaska: 4.80
Hempstead: 4.80
The Woodlands: 4.69
Navasota: 4.41
Livingston: 4.28
East Bernard: 4.22
Tomball: 4.20
Brenham: 3.90
6 NNE Prairie View: 3.56
Palacios: 3.55
El Campo: 3.38
7 N Ganado: 2.84

[DoctorMu]

I've had a total of 3.75" over the last few days. So thankful for the rain - it will really help the plants to have moist soil before the freeze.

Awesome!

[DoctorMu]

Some potential wintry action NW of the Houston area.

You never know - we could see a few pellets or flakes as far SE as Hearne.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

83 and 72 still showing up.

[unome]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
440 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
One last day of relative warmth is expected for Southeast Texas today before a strong cold front blasts across the region tonight. Early morning surface analysis showed this front seeping into the Northern Plains from Canada. Closer to home, another round of patchy fog is ongoing this morning and expect this fog to dissipate by mid-morning with heating. Low clouds spreading across the region from the northeast should help mitigate against dense fog development, but a few locations outside of this cloud shield (or under any breaks in it) may drop below 1 mile at times.

Isentropic upglide (295K surface) will increase across the region from southwest to northeast through the day today ahead of the approaching front. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few light showers develop near the Victoria Crossroads early afternoon and spread into the western/southwestern counties through the remainder of the afternoon as lift increases. Surface high pressure sliding east of the region today will allow for some meager moisture return as northeast surface winds this morning become south to southeast this afternoon, with shower coverage increasing this evening and tonight along and south of the Highway 59 corridor as a result. Because moisture return is so minimal (precipitable water values around one inch), not expecting much in the way of rain totals with most areas receiving less than one third of an inch. Otherwise, expect highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 60s under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

The cold front over the Northern Plains will push into Texas later today, reaching College Station this evening, the Houston metro after midnight, and clearing Galveston by sunrise. Wednesday night's showers will gradually be shunted offshore as the front continues to push into the Gulf on Thursday morning. Thursday will be a day where morning and afternoon temperatures for most locations are nearly the same, with temperatures on Thursday generally remaining in the 40s to low 50s due to cold air advection and cloudy skies behind the front. Increasing northerly winds can also be expected behind the front, with 15-25 MPH winds inland and 20-30 MPH along the coast. Wind gusts may approach 40 MPH closer to the coast and wind Advisories will be needed (at least) along the coast on Thursday.

Thursday night will be the coldest the region has experienced this season, with overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s north of Interstate 10 and mid 30s to low 40s south. Drier air filtering in behind the front does look to erode most of the clouds Thursday night, but GFS and NAM Bufr soundings are continuing to advertise the potential for partly cloudy skies with a persistent layer of moisture around 800-700 MB. These clouds would inhibit some of the overnight radiational cooling and help keep temperatures warmer, affecting which locations north of Interstate 10 would see a freeze on Friday morning. For now, have kept temperatures fairly similar to the previous forecast which advertises freezing temperatures along and north of an Eagle Lake to Spring to Liberty line. Wind chills on Friday morning are forecast to fall into the upper 10s to mid 20s in many locations inland and coats will be needed when heading to work or school.

Temperatures will warm into the mid 40s to low 50s on Friday as skies continue to clear, with temperatures continuing to rebound this weekend as surface high pressure departing the region and onshore flow resuming allows highs to climb back into the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday. Rain chances will increase Saturday night through Sunday as moisture returns, with scattered showers expected on Sunday as a cold front moves into the area. A brief dry period is possible by the middle of next week before another cold front reaches the region.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure over the central plains will bring a light north wind to the coastal waters this morning. As the high shifts east, surface winds will veer to the east. A strong cold front will push across the coastal waters late tonight and N-NE winds will develop and strengthen significantly. Sustained winds in the wake of the front will increases to 25 to 35 knots with higher gusts. A Gale Watch has posted for the Gulf waters from 12z Thursday through 06z Friday. SCA conditions will prevail over the bays Thurs/Thurs Night.

There may be some impact on Thursday in the more north-to-south ship channels as water is pushed out of the bays. The wind direction is currently forecast to be north or even north-northeast and am not expecting any low water advisories at this time. However, will need to keep an eye out for any adverse impacts if the wind direction changes more to more northwesterly.

Moderate onshore winds are expected to develop on Saturday and near advisory conditions will be possible on Saturday night into Sunday. The winds will diminish on Sunday night ahead of another front early Monday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 64 42 44 29 47 / 10 20 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 67 48 49 33 49 / 10 40 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 53 54 41 51 / 10 50 30 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM... Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM... Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM... Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43

[snowman65]

Is it just me or does it seem like the front is losing some of it's punch for the Golden Triangle area? Also doesn't seem like the next few fronts after that don't have much to them.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Arctic cold front arrives tonight…much colder and windy on Thursday…it will feel like winter

Arctic boundary has moved into the US from Canada overnight with Bismarck , ND currently at -1F. Cold dense air mass will plunge down the plains today and off the TX coast before sunrise on Thursday with dramatic temperature falls. Ahead of this boundary warm air advection and weak lift will result in the formation of a cloud deck today and even a chance of showers by this afternoon and evening especially around Matagorda Bay where lift and moisture are forecast to be greatest.

Arctic boundary should reach College Station late this evening, Houston between midnight and 200am, and off the coast by 400am. Strong cold air advection on NNE winds will result in falling temperatures from the 60’s ahead of the boundary overnight to the 40’s by sunrise on Thursday. Cloud deck will linger behind the front and with winds of 20-35mph wind chills will fall into the 30’s on Thursday. Could be a period of drizzle over the Brazos River Valley early Thursday with some weak lift behind the front, but temperatures should remain above freezing and not expecting any winter precipitation. Will go with near steady temperatures in the 40’s all day Thursday…it will be cold!

Freeze Potential:
Main question is when do skies clear late Thursday into Thursday night. Surface high builds into TX and this should push the mid level deck southward late Thursday. GFS and NAM both show a little bit of moisture remaining above 850mb into Thursday night which could keep a scattered deck in place especially south of I-10 helping to keep in ground warmth. Forecasted dewpoints bottom out in the upper 20’s early Friday and if skies are clear and winds calm temperatures could fall toward freezing.

Think widespread freeze will occur north of a Sealy to Liberty line Friday morning with temperatures from about 29-32 (light freeze). South of this line clouds and likely a little bit of wind will likely keep temperatures above freezing.

High pressure in place on Friday will begin to move eastward late Friday. Could see another night of freezing temperatures Saturday morning with lows possibly a degree of two colder…depends on when the winds become southerly. Could be a case where lows are reached between midnight and 300am and then the temperature begins to warm.

Warm air advection back in place over the weekend will result in a significant warm up with highs Saturday reaching near 60 and near 70 by Sunday. Rain chances on the rise Saturday night and Sunday ahead of the next cold front Sunday night. Temperatures behind this front will be more of Pacific origin so not nearly as cold.

[srainhoutx]

Is it just me or does it seem like the front is losing some of it's punch for the Golden Triangle area? Also doesn't seem like the next few fronts after that don't have much to them.

Less snow cover means more airmass modification, but don't let that fool you. Those winds gusting to 35 out of the NW and temperatures in the 40's will 'feel' mighty cold compared to what we experienced last Winter. Also keep an eye on the 16th -18th. The models are 'sniffing' out a wet storm system that may arrive with another shot of colder air...

[unome]

from NWS at D W Hooks Memorial Airport - I think they'll auto-update

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Is it just me or does it seem like the front is losing some of it's punch for the Golden Triangle area? Also doesn't seem like the next few fronts after that don't have much to them.

Less snow cover means more airmass modification, but don't let that fool you. Those winds gusting to 35 out of the NW and temperatures in the 40's will 'feel' mighty cold compared to what we experienced last Winter. Also keep an eye on the 16th -18th. The models are 'sniffing' out a wet storm system that may arrive with another shot of colder air...

Look at our Baja ridge and Alaskan ridge trying to connect.

Katy bar the door if we can get them to lock in!

[ticka1]

where are the colder tempseratures???

[MontgomeryCoWx]

They don't get here until midnight to 3 am.

[unome]

Amarillo & Dumas have hit the freezing mark in the panhandle & the wind chill is creeping south

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KAMA

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KDUX

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/temperature ... sa&limit=1
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/chill.php?map=usa

[christinac2016]

Weather.com shows about a 40% chance of rain around the time I get up and walk. What are your thoughts on any rain with this front/system? The rain has put a big wrinkle in my outdoor walking this week. Was hoping to make it up today , tomorrow, and Friday.