September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month

[Katdaddy]

A weak backdoor cool front may slide across SE TX this afternoon bring some slightly drier along with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms along the boundary similar. Wednesday will be a dry day before GOM moisture returns Thursday setting the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms into early next week. Still no real sign of our first real cold front which on the average occurs by Sept 15th.

On a side note, 11 year's ago on this Sept 20th Tuesday morning I was checking the latest forecast track on Hurricane Rita just entering the Straits of FLA with an uneasy feeling as the forecast track had shifted slightly N toward STX. The concern was growing for a significant hurricane threat for the TX Coast later in the week.

[Ounce]

Wouldn't it have been an interesting trip down memory lane if these boards went back to 2005 (only goes to 2010) and observe all the puckering and anxious moments as the re-curve was being forecasted.

[snowman65]

I don't think anyone here in my neck of the woods would care to relive any of those days...lol

[jasons2k]

We have our old threads on Storm2K, thank goodness. It is interesting to see the old analysis and comments. The forecasts have come a long way in 10 years.

[Katdaddy]

Yep I looked up the Storm2K Rita thread and saved a copy. It brought back all the memories of Rita I read my posts along with everyone else.

[redneckweather]

I'm getting a good storm here near Lake Conroe Dam. I also got a good hard shower yesterday. I really did not have my hopes up on getting any rain since I usually miss these isolated showers and storms. Figured I'd pop in here real quick and let Jason know.

[BlueJay]

It looks like the clouds are mighty dark to the north of us and appear to be rolling in toward us along with some thunder. Fingers crossed that we get a nice shower - a bit more than just a sprink.

[jasons2k]

I just checked the radar - wasn't expecting to see anything. Yep, it's close, but passing me by to the west. Maybe there will be more later if the outflow doesn't spoil it...

Edited: just checked the satellite too - anyone notice that swirl south of LA/MS?

Edited again: checked around and it looks like the ghost of 92l, still spinning out there. Pretty amazing.

[jasons2k]

Painful to watch. Really good looking storm missed me by a mile - one mile. That's twice in one day I got shafted.

[BlueJay]

Something is brewing-weather wise-at our house.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight ensemble suggests a vigorous cut off upper low exits from the Desert SW with an attending cold front that may attempt to push across Texas mid next week. There appears to be abundant tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific entrained along the frontal boundary with the potential for rounds of thunderstorms developing across our Region as the frontal boundary meanders somewhere near Central Texas. One more day of isolated storm chances before moisture returns from the Gulf and increases throughout the weekend.

[tireman4]

Could relief be coming soon? Srain alludes to that as does HGX...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 211024
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The passage of the weak cool front has brought drier and slightly
cooler air to SE TX overnight/this morning. However with the low-
er dewpoints (along with clear skies/calm winds) we will also see
some patchy fog across the area through the mid morning hours. Of
note over the nearshore waters, a couple of showers did manage to
develop (moving to the SW). Despite the cooler (than it has been)
start to the day, high temps this afternoon are still expected to
be slightly above normal. However heat indicies should remain be-
low critical levels given the drier air mixing into the region.

Rain chances still progged to return to the region later tonight/
early tomorrow morning via the south as deeper moisture begins to
move in from the Gulf. With the surface high moving off to the NE
and pressure falling over the Rockies, onshore winds will develop
late tonight and slowly strengthen through Sat (as a storm system
develops and moves into western Central Plains). No major changes
with the chance POPs already in the grids for this time.

While in much better agreement with each other with this run...we
are still seeing a lot of discrepancies with extended models from
previous runs. The consensus remains with a highly amplified slow
moving upper low/trof developing out west Sun before it begins to
slowly translate east with an associated cold front. (!!!) Storms
along/ahead of this boundary will keep POPs elevated Mon/Mon nite.
Confidence levels on this panning out: muted optimism. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Northeasterly flow in place this morning with 1-2 foot seas.
Isolated showers a good bet through the morning hours with what
appears to be a boundary from GLS southeastward. Winds should be on
the increase Thursday through Saturday and might even flirt with
SCEC well offshore Friday evening and Saturday evening. Seas should
build to 3 to 5 feet with a long SE fetch. A little more confidence
that first potent cold front expected to move offshore
Monday...still unsettled on rain chances and timing but overall
pattern looks conducive to pushing the front into the Gulf. Offshore
winds (moderate) prevail Tue-Wed.
45
&&

.Aviation...
Patchy fog leading to rapid fluctuations in VISBY at area airports.
VISBY ranging from 1/2 mi to 6. This pattern should probably
continue through 12-13z then with dry column above expect rapid
warmup this morning with SCT CU rapidly becoming high based by this
afternoon. Can`t rule out some showers for HOU/SGR/LBX during the
afternoon and will likely add VCSH in the upcoming TAF package.
Patchy fog will likely return tonight with warm front poised near
the coast and may see some lower cigs as well from CLL-GLS.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 75 91 / 0 0 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 93 73 92 75 89 / 0 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 81 87 / 10 10 20 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[jasons2k]

"muted optimism" says it all.

In the near term, the ghost of 92L is still spinning out there. Maybe it will bring us some rain

[Ounce]

"muted optimism" says it all.

In the near term, the ghost of 92L is still spinning out there. Maybe it will bring us some rain

Then maybe it'll get to within a half mile of your house.

[BlueJay]

This is the last full day of summer 2016. It has been filled with a few dangerously hot days as expected and many wet days for some which is not always expected.
Do something fun today to remember summer 2016.

[tireman4]

Not sure if this has been posted..but ( I think this is promising...as Srain and our other pros stated...not a fact)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_23.png


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_25.png

[DoctorMu]

Not sure if this has been posted..but ( I think this is promising...as Srain and our other pros stated...not a fact)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_23.png


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_25.png

Low 60s at night likely and refreshing on the 27th and 28th. Very close to breaking that 60°F barrier - it will be close.

[srainhoutx]

QPF amounts continue to slowly increase, particularly Sunday into early next week. While there are subtle differences between the Global models (ECMWF slower and wetter with the front versus a faster frontal boundary moving off the Coast, thus drier GFS), slowly there is gaining consistency that we may see low temperatures in the upper 50's/mid 60's and highs in the upper 70's to mid 80's this time next week.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday evening briefing from Jeff:

Upper level pattern will begin to amplify this weekend into early next week potentially brining the front decent cold front of fall across TX by the early to middle part of next week.

Moisture will begin to increase tomorrow with an increase in especially coastal showers and thunderstorms…so of which may reach as far inland as I-10 during the afternoon hours. Rain chances increase even more Friday into the weekend as a deep trough approaches TX from the west and moisture from both the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific stream into the region. Expect waves of showers and thunderstorms to develop near the coast and offshore and track NNW Friday and especially Saturday. Upper level trough will arrive into the state Sunday-Monday along with the slowing moving yet decent cold front. Expect some potential for heavy rainfall along and ahead of the frontal boundary for a 24-36 hours period from late Sunday into late Monday. Could see some pretty decent totals with latest WPC amounts showing 3-5 day totals of 3-4 inches over the region.

Looking well to the SSW…sure enough…there is a tropical system attempting to organize well SW of the Mexican coast and is expected to turn NNW to N and will certainly be in a position by late this weekend to supply mid and high level moisture across TX and along/ahead of the front boundary. This is a fairly routine heavy rainfall setup across SE/SC TX during the fall months when deepening fall troughs start to dig southward and capture or in some cases bring the high level moisture of eastern Pacific tropical systems into the state. This will be a factor to watch in the days ahead that could increase rainfall amounts

I am cautions this time of year to bite too hard on any actual cooling from frontal passages, but several of the global models show decent cold air advection post front and even a secondary surge of surface high pressure down the plains the middle of next week. Expect the front to cross the coast and move well into the Gulf of Mexico sometime late Monday into Tuesday. Winds will shift to the NW and increase post front and temperatures will cool into the lower 60’s for lows and lower 80’s for highs. Could go even colder for lows into the mid to upper 50’s…but don’t want to push it too hard just yet.

[sambucol]

Sounds fantastic!!!