September 2016 - Cool & Drier To End Month
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19685
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Jason, we were at the hunting lease yesterday in Liberty County just S of Rye and NE of Cleveland. It is still wet across portions of the 10K land management lease and we again had to wench one of the 4X4 side by sides out of the mud. The Pines are showing no sign of drought stress and we continue to mow the right of ways and work on roads/trails throughout the lease that have taken a beating from the last year and a half of heavy rainfall. The wildlife has recovered so much from the very wet conditions and plentiful supplies of food. Our cameras have captured so much activity, be it hogs, deer (bucks/doe's and fawn's) as well as turkey. It is amazing that just a few miles East of you that it is still very wet. Hopefully you folks in Montgomery County as well as to your NW near Navasota and Bryan/College Station can get some rain as we transition into the Fall.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Fingers crossed. Foliage has dried considerably the last few days and the sprinklers were out of mothballs again. Hard to titrate this just right. Our trees still haven't quite recovered from 2011, and the dry stretches last August/September last year and from Memorial day to mid August still has trees susceptible. We have substantial Na+ in the city water from deep well aquifers, making it alkaline, so have been spreading extra sulfur pellets on tree bases and grass.srainhoutx wrote:Jason, we were at the hunting lease yesterday in Liberty County just S of Rye and NE of Cleveland. It is still wet across portions of the 10K land management lease and we again had to wench one of the 4X4 side by sides out of the mud. The Pines are showing no sign of drought stress and we continue to mow the right of ways and work on roads/trails throughout the lease that have taken a beating from the last year and a half of heavy rainfall. The wildlife has recovered so much from the very wet conditions and plentiful supplies of food. Our cameras have captured so much activity, be it hogs, deer (bucks/doe's and fawn's) as well as turkey. It is amazing that just a few miles East of you that it is still very wet. Hopefully you folks in Montgomery County as well as to your NW near Navasota and Bryan/College Station can get some rain as we transition into the Fall.
Yes, we've had some beautiful sunsets this year for sure 
October is just around the corner and it has historically produced some of the most significant rain and flooding events in SE Texas. I certainly don't wish flooding for anyone, but it seems like it takes a system like that to get me some decent rain in my gauge. The storms a couple of weeks ago kept missing me by only a few miles - often they would fall apart just as they were getting to me. Each day I'd watch a nice solid line build and move this way - it would look so promising - like finally this is it - and then poof! Then 30 minutes later, it would reform as it moved right on by. Talk about frustration, day after day, while the neighbors got soaked, in all directions. If I had caught a break with one of those, or something this last week, we'd probably be OK until the fall rains. But in the last week or so, the trees are reaching their limits and some of the pines are getting that yellow/orange look again.
I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm actually looking forward to fall and gumbo weather this year.
October is just around the corner and it has historically produced some of the most significant rain and flooding events in SE Texas. I certainly don't wish flooding for anyone, but it seems like it takes a system like that to get me some decent rain in my gauge. The storms a couple of weeks ago kept missing me by only a few miles - often they would fall apart just as they were getting to me. Each day I'd watch a nice solid line build and move this way - it would look so promising - like finally this is it - and then poof! Then 30 minutes later, it would reform as it moved right on by. Talk about frustration, day after day, while the neighbors got soaked, in all directions. If I had caught a break with one of those, or something this last week, we'd probably be OK until the fall rains. But in the last week or so, the trees are reaching their limits and some of the pines are getting that yellow/orange look again.
I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm actually looking forward to fall and gumbo weather this year.
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redneckweather
- Posts: 1058
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
I live north/northwest of you Jason and have missed most of the rains the past few weeks as well but before that, I had 10.5" in the rain gauge over a weeks time. My ground has plenty of moisture in it still and everything is nice and green. I can confidently say that about most of the surrounding areas from Huntsville, Lake Conroe and down into The Woodlands. I can understand your frustration but we are no where near drought conditions. Yea, I think you need some cool wet weather to help you get rid of that doom and gloom attitude. lol
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
- Location: League City, Tx
- Contact:
And the heat continues:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
.THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.
TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-200000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0014.160919T1600Z-160920T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON...WINNIE
910 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
* EVENT...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE CAN QUICKLY HAPPEN TO
ANYONE WORKING OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE...
RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE
SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT
AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH
ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED
OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED
TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.
EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO CHILDREN
ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. IN THE
PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO HYPERTHERMIA AFTER
BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A MINUTE.
REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
.THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE
ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.
TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-200000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0014.160919T1600Z-160920T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON...WINNIE
910 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
* EVENT...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.
* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE CAN QUICKLY HAPPEN TO
ANYONE WORKING OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE...
RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW THE
SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT
AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH
ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED
OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED
TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.
EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO CHILDREN
ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS. IN THE
PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO HYPERTHERMIA AFTER
BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN OR
PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A MINUTE.
REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
I .....loathe....Summer....ughh....
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191519
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1019 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory through 7 PM. Looking for heat
index values to peak in a 105 to 110 range in and around the Advisory
area. A record high temperature was set at Houston Hobby yesterday
(97 degrees broke the old record of 96 degrees set in 1982), and today`s
record high at Houston Intercontinental Airport of 97 degrees set in
1995 is in jeopardy of being tied or broken. With the heat, cannot
totally rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. But anticipate
a majority of Southeast Texas to stay dry today. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Low/mid level ridging will dominate area wx for the next several
days bringing continued hot temps & minimal rain chances.
Heat indicies will probably again approach the 105-110 range during
the afternoon hours and a short term heat advisory can`t be ruled
out, especially closer to the coast. Lower dewpoints should backdoor
into the region on Tue which should limit humidity/heat indices
going into midweek.
Rain-wise...may see a few cells pop up from time to time, but
suspect combination of lower pw`s & subsidence will be too much
to overcome for most areas. Seabreeze might be about the only
decent shot, albeit low, in the coming days. Any stronger late
aftn cells could produce strong wind gusts.
Ridge loosens its grip Friday and into the weekend. Temps will
moderate, and moisture levels & rain chances gradually increase.
Latest guidance slows the eastward progression of the next upper
trof compared to what we were looking at yesterday. Brings a bit
more uncertainty regarding which days that might see the better
chances of rain this weekend and early next week. Will keep the
30-40%`ers going for now as a starting point until fcst confidence
improves. 47
MARINE...
A weak backdoor front is expected to bring light NE/E winds to the
coastal waters later this afternoon...persisting through tomorrow.
However, high pressure building to the east and lowering pressures
out west will allow for the return of onshore winds by Weds night.
This light/moderate onshore flow is forecast to strengthen by late
Thurs night as the developing low out west help tighten the gradi-
ent across the area. This deepening SE flow will also increase low
level moisture and rain chances for Fri (and likely on through the
weekend). At this time still not anticipating the need for Caution
or Advisory flags during this time frame. All of this unsettled wx
appears to be setting the stage for a cold front early next week.
The latest long range runs appear to be backing off on this system
but that is to be expected this time of year. Perhaps later models
will come into better consensus these next several days. 41
AVIATION...
Will likely be dealing with morning fog/low clouds through the rest
of the morning...especially for our more southern TAF sites. Again,
we could see a repeat tonight/early Tues morning (despite the pass-
age of a weak backdoor cool front). Otherwise will be expecting VFR
conditions during the afternoon with no mention of precipitation as
the airmass remains dry. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 96 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191519
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1019 AM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory through 7 PM. Looking for heat
index values to peak in a 105 to 110 range in and around the Advisory
area. A record high temperature was set at Houston Hobby yesterday
(97 degrees broke the old record of 96 degrees set in 1982), and today`s
record high at Houston Intercontinental Airport of 97 degrees set in
1995 is in jeopardy of being tied or broken. With the heat, cannot
totally rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. But anticipate
a majority of Southeast Texas to stay dry today. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
Low/mid level ridging will dominate area wx for the next several
days bringing continued hot temps & minimal rain chances.
Heat indicies will probably again approach the 105-110 range during
the afternoon hours and a short term heat advisory can`t be ruled
out, especially closer to the coast. Lower dewpoints should backdoor
into the region on Tue which should limit humidity/heat indices
going into midweek.
Rain-wise...may see a few cells pop up from time to time, but
suspect combination of lower pw`s & subsidence will be too much
to overcome for most areas. Seabreeze might be about the only
decent shot, albeit low, in the coming days. Any stronger late
aftn cells could produce strong wind gusts.
Ridge loosens its grip Friday and into the weekend. Temps will
moderate, and moisture levels & rain chances gradually increase.
Latest guidance slows the eastward progression of the next upper
trof compared to what we were looking at yesterday. Brings a bit
more uncertainty regarding which days that might see the better
chances of rain this weekend and early next week. Will keep the
30-40%`ers going for now as a starting point until fcst confidence
improves. 47
MARINE...
A weak backdoor front is expected to bring light NE/E winds to the
coastal waters later this afternoon...persisting through tomorrow.
However, high pressure building to the east and lowering pressures
out west will allow for the return of onshore winds by Weds night.
This light/moderate onshore flow is forecast to strengthen by late
Thurs night as the developing low out west help tighten the gradi-
ent across the area. This deepening SE flow will also increase low
level moisture and rain chances for Fri (and likely on through the
weekend). At this time still not anticipating the need for Caution
or Advisory flags during this time frame. All of this unsettled wx
appears to be setting the stage for a cold front early next week.
The latest long range runs appear to be backing off on this system
but that is to be expected this time of year. Perhaps later models
will come into better consensus these next several days. 41
AVIATION...
Will likely be dealing with morning fog/low clouds through the rest
of the morning...especially for our more southern TAF sites. Again,
we could see a repeat tonight/early Tues morning (despite the pass-
age of a weak backdoor cool front). Otherwise will be expecting VFR
conditions during the afternoon with no mention of precipitation as
the airmass remains dry. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 74 96 / 10 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 76 96 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
i was outside dragging tree limbs out of the yard and it is miserably hot. Finally finished and cooling off indoors. Stay safe and cool SE texas folks - it is a hot one with plenty of humidity out there.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
And even more heat news from HGX:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.AVIATION...
Some of the short term guidance is showing some potential for
shra/tsra later this aftn but the cu field is looking rather flat
at the current time so will keep area TAFs dry for now. A weak
boundary will approach the area late tonight or early Tuesday.
Some potential for fog ahead of the boundary especially for areas
s/sw of the front like KLBX and KSGR. This is the area that the
SREF is pinging with vsbys less than 3 miles. The latest RAP and
the NMM produce some showers after 08z as a weak boundary moves
into SE TX. Confidence not terribly high with this feature but
both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings support a bkn060 deck with PW
values between 1.75-2.00 inches so went ahead and mentioned VCSH
for KIAH southward early Tuesday morning. 43
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.AVIATION...
Some of the short term guidance is showing some potential for
shra/tsra later this aftn but the cu field is looking rather flat
at the current time so will keep area TAFs dry for now. A weak
boundary will approach the area late tonight or early Tuesday.
Some potential for fog ahead of the boundary especially for areas
s/sw of the front like KLBX and KSGR. This is the area that the
SREF is pinging with vsbys less than 3 miles. The latest RAP and
the NMM produce some showers after 08z as a weak boundary moves
into SE TX. Confidence not terribly high with this feature but
both the NAM and GFS fcst soundings support a bkn060 deck with PW
values between 1.75-2.00 inches so went ahead and mentioned VCSH
for KIAH southward early Tuesday morning. 43
I hope forecasters are wrong about this winter. They are saying it is supposed to be very cold (up north) but that it is looking like most of it wont make it down this way. Not looking forward to another 85 degree soup bowl christmas again.
-
GBinGrimes
- Posts: 110
- Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
- Location: Anderson, TX
- Contact:
2 winters ago, I believe, the long range forecast was looking the same. Then there was that very intense pacific storm that moved very far north and buckled the jet stream which changed everything, thankfully. I am praying for another of those.
Outside taking a break from clearing about a 1/4 mile of fenceline. I love the heat and sweating but man...it is brutal out here!
Outside taking a break from clearing about a 1/4 mile of fenceline. I love the heat and sweating but man...it is brutal out here!
Not I. I was born in the Houston area and my choice of profession (chemistry) makes it very difficult to move elsewhere. As I've gotten older I've found that I have way less tolerance for the heat we get here for 6 months of the year and the hellish temps of summer. Im lucky to get pleasant weather for parts of December and January / February.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
From Brook's Blog....
HOUSTON - The only sign of fall has been the changing sun angle and shorter days. Otherwise, the heat is still blazing and you can still wear the air, as humidity values match those of July. It's safe to say that most of Houston is ready for the comfortable, autumn weather we can only dream of in August. Hang in, the inevitable pendulum of the changing season is only a few weeks away from swinging into Houston.
If history teaches us anything, it's that true fall air is likely to be only a few more weeks away. While there's no cold front on our door step today, there may be a weak front coming our way next week to at least take the tropical humidity out of the air, followed by a stronger one in early October which could actually drop temperatures.
Here's what history reminds us:
Our typical first 50s (for overnight lows) happen on ...
Earliest in history: 9/6/2011
Average first occurrence: 9/26
Latest occurrence: 10/19
Typical first 40s (for overnight lows) happen on ...
Earliest in history: 9/22/1983
Average first occurrence: 10/15
Latest occurrence: 11/18/15
Typical first 30s (for overnight lows) happen on ...
Earliest in history: 10/13/1977
Average first occurrence: 11/11
Latest occurrence: 12/13/1988
My feeling is that these summer doldrums will be but a distant memory before we know it. Who knows: this may be the year Houston gets snow! We can dream, right? If you like what you read, please like me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter. -Brooks
HOUSTON - The only sign of fall has been the changing sun angle and shorter days. Otherwise, the heat is still blazing and you can still wear the air, as humidity values match those of July. It's safe to say that most of Houston is ready for the comfortable, autumn weather we can only dream of in August. Hang in, the inevitable pendulum of the changing season is only a few weeks away from swinging into Houston.
If history teaches us anything, it's that true fall air is likely to be only a few more weeks away. While there's no cold front on our door step today, there may be a weak front coming our way next week to at least take the tropical humidity out of the air, followed by a stronger one in early October which could actually drop temperatures.
Here's what history reminds us:
Our typical first 50s (for overnight lows) happen on ...
Earliest in history: 9/6/2011
Average first occurrence: 9/26
Latest occurrence: 10/19
Typical first 40s (for overnight lows) happen on ...
Earliest in history: 9/22/1983
Average first occurrence: 10/15
Latest occurrence: 11/18/15
Typical first 30s (for overnight lows) happen on ...
Earliest in history: 10/13/1977
Average first occurrence: 11/11
Latest occurrence: 12/13/1988
My feeling is that these summer doldrums will be but a distant memory before we know it. Who knows: this may be the year Houston gets snow! We can dream, right? If you like what you read, please like me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter. -Brooks
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6020
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Stay safe out there folks...
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191958
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
258 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Heat index values are high (generally running 105 to 110 degrees near
the coast and 100 to 105 degrees well inland early this afternoon) due
to the area`s hot temperatures and elevated dew points. The heat advisory
issued this morning remains in effect until 7 PM. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop in this heat, but almost the entire area
should stay hot and dry. A tiny bit of relief is expected tomorrow with
slowly lowering dew points expected to keep peak heat index values in
a 100 to 105 degree range which are under heat advisory levels. It must
be noted that 100 to 105 degrees is still very dangerous, and precautions
should still be taken to stay safe. Some short term models and their
guidance numbers are showing an increase in rain chances late tonight
through tomorrow, but current thinking is that their numbers are way
too high so will be keeping central and south area rain chances at 20%
or less. Mid/upper level ridging building across the area during the
middle to end of the week will keep most of the area dry and very warm.
At the end of the week and over the weekend, this ridge edges a bit
off to the east, and increasing Gulf moisture spreading across the area
from strengthening onshore winds is expected to bring us rising rain
chances. Models are continuing their recent trend of keeping next week`s
cold front west of our area resulting in no significant early Fall cooldown.
But with clouds and possible showers and thunderstorms in the forecast,
high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, and that
should feel better than today`s mid to upper 90s.
See the climate section below for some details on this September`s heat.
42
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the middle Ohio valley will ridge into Texas
through Tuesday. A weak backdoor cool front is expected to bring
cross SE TX early Tuesday and sfc winds will briefly become NE. Low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies will allow for winds to
become E on Wednesday and SE Weds night. This deepening SE flow will
increase low level moisture and rain chances for Fri and Saturday and
also tighten the gradient with wind speeds increasing over the weekend.
43
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191958
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
258 PM CDT Mon Sep 19 2016
.DISCUSSION...
Heat index values are high (generally running 105 to 110 degrees near
the coast and 100 to 105 degrees well inland early this afternoon) due
to the area`s hot temperatures and elevated dew points. The heat advisory
issued this morning remains in effect until 7 PM. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop in this heat, but almost the entire area
should stay hot and dry. A tiny bit of relief is expected tomorrow with
slowly lowering dew points expected to keep peak heat index values in
a 100 to 105 degree range which are under heat advisory levels. It must
be noted that 100 to 105 degrees is still very dangerous, and precautions
should still be taken to stay safe. Some short term models and their
guidance numbers are showing an increase in rain chances late tonight
through tomorrow, but current thinking is that their numbers are way
too high so will be keeping central and south area rain chances at 20%
or less. Mid/upper level ridging building across the area during the
middle to end of the week will keep most of the area dry and very warm.
At the end of the week and over the weekend, this ridge edges a bit
off to the east, and increasing Gulf moisture spreading across the area
from strengthening onshore winds is expected to bring us rising rain
chances. Models are continuing their recent trend of keeping next week`s
cold front west of our area resulting in no significant early Fall cooldown.
But with clouds and possible showers and thunderstorms in the forecast,
high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, and that
should feel better than today`s mid to upper 90s.
See the climate section below for some details on this September`s heat.
42
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the middle Ohio valley will ridge into Texas
through Tuesday. A weak backdoor cool front is expected to bring
cross SE TX early Tuesday and sfc winds will briefly become NE. Low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies will allow for winds to
become E on Wednesday and SE Weds night. This deepening SE flow will
increase low level moisture and rain chances for Fri and Saturday and
also tighten the gradient with wind speeds increasing over the weekend.
43
Perused NOAAs climo 90 day prediction. Warm and dry for the next...year.Cromagnum wrote:I hope forecasters are wrong about this winter. They are saying it is supposed to be very cold (up north) but that it is looking like most of it wont make it down this way. Not looking forward to another 85 degree soup bowl christmas again.
Fail if the 10 year drought raises its head again. This La Nina cycle may be short, so we have that going for us...
Yeah, the way I look at it, we get a nice run of weather once that first Fall cold front finally hits through April/early May...then power through another summer.Cromagnum wrote:Not I. I was born in the Houston area and my choice of profession (chemistry) makes it very difficult to move elsewhere. As I've gotten older I've found that I have way less tolerance for the heat we get here for 6 months of the year and the hellish temps of summer. Im lucky to get pleasant weather for parts of December and January / February.
Just had a rain cell pop up here in Stafford. It's raining pretty good right now.
Absolutely loved the downpour in my neighborhood to cool things down. That heat today was brutal. Sorry not everyone is getting this but I'll take it. 
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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TexasBreeze
- Posts: 1008
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- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Yeah that cloud in the distance to the south blew straight up and fanned out! Looked neat from afar!
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Katdaddy
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2517
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- Location: League City, Tx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
TXZ227-237-200015-
BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
624 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND SOUTHERN
FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...
AT 623 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
THOMPSONS...OR NEAR FIRST COLONY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...FIRST COLONY...
NEEDVILLE...PLEAK...FAIRCHILDS...BEASLEY...THOMPSONS...GREATWOOD...
NEW TERRITORY...NORTHWESTERN SIENNA PLANTATION AND DAMON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
TXZ227-237-200015-
BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
624 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND SOUTHERN
FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...
AT 623 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
THOMPSONS...OR NEAR FIRST COLONY...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN SUGAR LAND...ROSENBERG...RICHMOND...FIRST COLONY...
NEEDVILLE...PLEAK...FAIRCHILDS...BEASLEY...THOMPSONS...GREATWOOD...
NEW TERRITORY...NORTHWESTERN SIENNA PLANTATION AND DAMON.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.