Tracking the Tropics:

[TexasBreeze]

Looks to me like it could run into the big Caribbean islands to me which would limit development short term.

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, the latest Euro has Hermoine coming ashore about Gulfport, MS next Wed






GFS leaves it nearly stationary off Miami in a week.

[Andrew]

00z GFS a lot slower and weaker with ridging. Still has a ULL/trough that provides plenty of shear over the southwest Atlantic. Landfall over southeast Florida and probably will see a central/eastern gulf second landfall. Wild swings still from the GFS.

Edit to add, it may not even make it into the gulf. Apparently the GFS wants to push through the ridge

gfs_z850_vort_seus_24.png

gfs_z500_vort_seus_33.png

[Skyguy]

00z GFS a lot slower and weaker with ridging. Still has a ULL/trough that provides plenty of shear over the southwest Atlantic. Landfall over southeast Florida and probably will see a central/eastern gulf second landfall. Wild swings still from the GFS.

Edit to add, it may not even make it into the gulf. Apparently the GFS wants to push through the ridge

gfs_z850_vort_seus_24.png

gfs_z500_vort_seus_33.png

Ditto. BTW: Is this the first time the GFS has shown development?

[Skyguy]

FWIW, the latest Euro has Hermoine coming ashore about Gulfport, MS next Wed






GFS leaves it nearly stationary off Miami in a week.

I've seen that before. Looks like the Florida panhandle and Gulfport to me.

[Scott747]

GFS is the outlier now and I'd almost disregard till we get some data from the NOAA flights. Global Hawk starts a 24hr mission tomorrow with 86 drops.

UKIE hasn't been one of my favorites and consider it one the better second tier models had a fairly large shift to the west. As usual it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows later.

[Skyguy]

FWIW, the latest Euro has Hermoine coming ashore about Gulfport, MS next Wed






GFS leaves it nearly stationary off Miami in a week.

Can I see the full sequence, just to make sure the Euro isn't following the lead of the 18Z GFS?

[Scott747]

0z euro is a little west of 12z. Now how far w will it go in the gulf. Ridging looks strong so far.

[Scott747]

Well as folks get up in the morning everyone should take a deep breath. 0z Euro shows a landfalling cat 4 around the Sabine Pass to Cameron area next Thursday. We are still in a long enough range that there should be changes in the models with different solutions. No doubt that as today unfolded the trend has certainly been much further W in the Gulf.

I caution everyone before becoming concerned to wait at least another 24-48 hrs as the data from NOAA flights starts rolling in and a better grasp on the upper level dynamics can be forecasted.

[Andrew]

Well as folks get up in the morning everyone should take a deep breath. 0z Euro shows a landfalling cat 4 around the Sabine Pass to Cameron area next Thursday. We are still in a long enough range that there should be changes in the models with different solutions. No doubt that as today unfolded the trend has certainly been much further W in the Gulf.

I caution everyone before becoming concerned to wait at least another 24-48 hrs as the data from NOAA flights starts rolling in and a better grasp on the upper level dynamics can be forecasted.

Here are the images from the ECMWF 00z solution. Looking at some hi-res data, the east coast ridge is a lot stronger than the 12z run. Also 99L is a lot faster moving and further south. A lot of players are in play here and it is a rather fragile situation. As Scott mentioned though don't get concerned right now because models are having large swings in the synoptic scale (even the ECMWF) and more data will soon be ingested. With that said, we will be keeping a careful eye on this post in particular to make sure reliable and level-headed information is being posted. This forum is viewed by many across the nation and we need to make sure our information is accurate and not an overreaction. Thanks everyone!

Edit to add: Just for reference the ECMWF ensemble is split from central Mexico northeastward to the Florida Peninsula. This is a huge split and shows how low confidence the models have in any one solution right now. Expect that to continue!

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_6.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_9.png

rbtop0-lalo.gif

[tireman4]

Agreed. Patience is the key. Many factors go into play into any item weather ( be it snow, rain, storms). We are still well out and the recon must get in to feed more information into the models. This is the bear watch season.

[tireman4]

Let me say this before the questions and concerns start to arise here. I want to first thank all the mets (Srain, Andrew, Brooks, Jeff, Wxman57, David and Blake) that take the time to do what they do. Next week will be an interesting one for them, no matter when/if/or where anything happens. I assure you they will take the time to try and answer all questions meteorology during this time frame. Be patient and vigilant, no matter what arises. There is a long time between now and whatever weather affects the US. Always ( to quote Srain) good to go over your hurricane kits, no matter the season ( Winter, Summer, Fall or Spring).

[redneckweather]

I have a feeling this board is going to explode over the next few days.

[sambucol]

Let me say this before the questions and concerns start to arise here. I want to first thank all the mets (Srain, Andrew, Brooks, Jeff, Wxman57, David and Blake) that take the time to do what they do. Next week will be an interesting one for them, no matter when/if/or where anything happens. I assure you they will take the time to try and answer all questions meteorology during this time frame. Be patient and vigilant, no matter what arises. There is a long time between now and whatever weather affects the US. Always ( to quote Srain) good to go over your hurricane kits, no matter the season ( Winter, Summer, Fall or Spring).

Good post!! I'm going to go over my hurricane preps this weekend. I'd rather have them in place and not need them than to need them and not have them.

[Cromagnum]

Just wait until one of the "Doom & Gloom" models bullseyes Houston at the 5 day window. Its going to be a worrisome few days as we head into the weekend if this spins up into anything.

[unome]

Srain, you were correct - a simple power outage showed me I am not as prepared for an emergency as I thought - pretty well prepared, but we need to work on some things...

Bryan Norcross' blog is awesome - spot on, sage advise: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorc ... -get-ready

https://twitter.com/TWCBryan

An unfortunate artifact of modern television weather-graphics systems is that it’s just as easy for a weathercaster to show a model forecast for a week from now as it is to show a map of the weather at this minute. The problem is, we are pretty sure about the current weather, but the forecast graphic for a week from now is almost certainly wrong.

It’s inflammatory and misleading and upsetting to coastal residents, and I humbly propose that we quit it, especially in scenarios like this one that are wildly uncertain except for the broad strokes.

[Andrew]

Shear is still impacting 99L with the LLC most likely on the northwest side. Looks like it could be exposed when recon flies in.

[jasons2k]

It’s inflammatory and misleading and upsetting to coastal residents, and I humbly propose that we quit it.

I have to disagree with Mr. Norcross on this statement. People are going to access the information one way or another. It can't be 'hidden' from the public. We rely on professional Mets to provide model interpretation and context to the general public; that is their job. Some do it better than others. Posting a model graphic is not "inflammatory and misleading" unless the Met presenting it doesn't provide the proper context.

Mr. Norcross - what's "inflammatory and misleading" (and I have a few other choice words in mind) is hiding information from people because you think they can't handle it. A solid, professional Met with good communication skills shouldn't have a panicked audience.

[DoctorMu]

Well as folks get up in the morning everyone should take a deep breath. 0z Euro shows a landfalling cat 4 around the Sabine Pass to Cameron area next Thursday. We are still in a long enough range that there should be changes in the models with different solutions. No doubt that as today unfolded the trend has certainly been much further W in the Gulf.

I caution everyone before becoming concerned to wait at least another 24-48 hrs as the data from NOAA flights starts rolling in and a better grasp on the upper level dynamics can be forecasted.

Here are the images from the ECMWF 00z solution. Looking at some hi-res data, the east coast ridge is a lot stronger than the 12z run. Also 99L is a lot faster moving and further south. A lot of players are in play here and it is a rather fragile situation. As Scott mentioned though don't get concerned right now because models are having large swings in the synoptic scale (even the ECMWF) and more data will soon be ingested. With that said, we will be keeping a careful eye on this post in particular to make sure reliable and level-headed information is being posted. This forum is viewed by many across the nation and we need to make sure our information is accurate and not an overreaction. Thanks everyone!

Edit to add: Just for reference the ECMWF ensemble is split from central Mexico northeastward to the Florida Peninsula. This is a huge split and shows how low confidence the models have in any one solution right now. Expect that to continue!

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_6.png

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_9.png

rbtop0-lalo.gif

The 12z should be interesting indeed. The latest Euro data has the storm indeed coming ashore at the LA/TX border, like Rita. Strength is trending upwards with pressure predicted at 945 mb. Seven days out is a long time...but locals and national support need to start preparing now.

[sambucol]

My city has posted on FB about an hour ago a link for citizens to sign up to get emergency alerts. That's not a normal thing they have ever done before.