Vigorous Tropical Waves/Watching The Tropics

[hurricanetrack]

Greetings! Got an invitation to join up here so here I am! Been to Houston a lot these past few years doing some testing and other R&D work. The floods certainly kept us busy and have helped us to be ready for deploying our equipment this season and beyond. When and if the time comes for that, I will create a new thread about what we plan to do to cover a hurricane at landfall. The technology we have in place is astounding, especially compared to where we came from over the past decade or more. So for now, thought I would post a link to my video discussion for today. I produce these several times per week during the season and once per week during the off-season. They are on YouTube and populate our app, Hurricane Impact, for easy access on the go. It just so happens that today I began a new weekly segment called "this week in hurricane history". Hope you find the video discussion helpful - I'll post more as the season moves on.

Stay windy my friends!
Mark Sudduth - HurricaneTrack.com

https://youtu.be/fED50Q5oyds

[unome]

great to see you here, Mark ! I thoroughly enjoyed your "flood cams" earlier this year in Houston, and of course, the rest of your work

[srainhoutx]

Getting word that the latest Seasonal ECMWF Outlook not available to the public suggests about 11 named storms with near normal ACE and increased rainfall across the Tropical Atlantic during the August to November timeframe. Also the Tropical activity in the Pacific has led to some cooling of the sea surface temperatures suggesting the further decay of the Super El Nino as we transition toward a weak La Nina Global Hemispheric Pattern meaning less in the way of wind shear across the Atlantic Basin as peak season draws closer by the day.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 7h7 hours ago
Weekly change in SST nicely shows "Transequatorial Tropical Instability Waves" ... cooling in tropical EPAC

[srainhoutx]

While the Atlantic Basin is quiet and Saharan Dust continues to spread West across the Atlantic Ocean, we are beginning to see some potential changes as we end July and begin August. The very long Range Seasonal Guidance is suggesting the Eastern Pacific active period may relax and shift into the Atlantic Basin. Monsoonal activity across the Sahel Region of Africa where our Tropical Waves originate is forecast to become increasingly active and those Tropical Wave will continue to trek West in the mean Easterly flow beneath the Azores and Bermuda Ridge. With pressures remaining rather high across the Main Development Region, potential tropical development looks to remain in check across the Central Atlantic. The fly in the ointment is that it appears conditions across the Caribbean Sea, particularly the Western Caribbean will become increasingly favorable as mid/upper level wind shear relaxes, pressures begin to fall and the African Dust abates. Some of the very long range Ensembles are picking up on the potential favorable conditions suggesting Tropical Cyclone Genesis may be possible. With a rather strong Upper Ridge parked of the Central Plains, that tends to favor any tropical mischief to traverse West to WNW beneath the Ridge where we live. We will continue to monitor the trends as the month of July ends and we transition into August which is the beginning of our Hurricane Season 'Prime Time' and will update if we see any significant changes or potential threats.

[Ounce]

I guess that answers my question of how long it takes the atmosphere to get into a position to develop waves, when the dust stops coming off the Sahara...a week or two. Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

I guess that answers my question of how long it takes the atmosphere to get into a position to develop waves, when the dust stops coming off the Sahara...a week or two. Thanks.

There are some indications that the SAL Outbreak may relax in about 10 to 14 days. The 12Z GEFS Ensemble Members are 'sniffing' potential Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NW Caribbean as the dust abates and mean sea level pressures begin to lower. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

A rather vigorous monsoonal low is existing the West African Coast this morning and appears to have a low and mid level spin as well as convection associated with the wave. While the Saharan Arid Layer is still and inhibiting factor, we often see a strong tropical wave work in tandem to eventually ease the African Dust that is typical in July. While no development is expect as it crosses the Central Atlantic, condition may become a bit more conducive for develop in about a week to 10 days as it enter the Caribbean Sea. Some of the longer range models have been suggesting possible Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NW Caribbean Sea/Southern/Western Gulf during the later days of July. We will continue to monitor the Tropics in the Atlantic Basin as it appears the Eastern Pacific parade of Tropical Cyclones is about to ease and shut off as colder sea surface temperatures from upwelling and a suppressed Madden Julian Oscillation settles over the Central and Eastern Pacific.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight GFS 00Z and 06Z schemes are suggesting a very vigorous Tropical Wave emerging off the African Coast and slowly organizes into a Tropical Cyclone across the Central Atlantic. There are growing indications that a suppressed Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave arrives in the Eastern Pacific shutting down the parade of EPAC tropical cyclones we have seen most of July. The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently in a wet phase across the Atlantic Basin and following a moderate bout of Saharan Dust emerging into the Atlantic Ocean next week, conditions may become a bit more favorable for Tropical Development particularly closer to 50W. We will continue monitoring the tropics for any mischief that may spin up as we end July and begin August when we start the march towards peak Hurricane Season that culminates around September 12th or so. Stay tuned.

[srainhoutx]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 2m2 minutes ago
GEFS up to 60% now on MDR genesis.. ECMWF finally showing a 10% risk. It all comes down to how models handle AEWs




The Madden Julian Oscillation 200mb velocity schemes do suggest conducive conditions across Africa and the Indian Ocean where convective tropical waves organize and begin their trek West over Africa. The computer models may be 'sniffing' these enhanced conditions, so next week as we end July attention turns to our East. Tis that time of year folks... #ItOnlyTakesOne #HurricaneStrong

[DoctorMu]

Incubator in place:

[srainhoutx]

Looking across Africa yesterday and this morning, we are beginning to see the influence of the vigorous vorticity associated with the MJO pulse that is moving across that Region. Some of the Global ensembles are beginning to 'sniff out' the possibility of these vigorous tropical waves attempting to organize as the enter the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, potentially as early as later this week. As we begin to near the month of August, there are some indications that tropical activity across the Atlantic Basin will increase as the Eastern Pacific enters a quiet phase. While the Azores/Bermuda Ridge is expected to keep activity in the Main Development Region somewhat in check this season, all eyes will need to monitor the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Western Atlantic near the Bahamas for Tropical Cyclone genesis as we head toward mid August and toward Peak Hurricane Season around mid September.

Meteosat Yesterday:

Meteosat Today:

[srainhoutx]

Tuesday morning Tropical update across the Atlantic Basin indicates a couple of tropical waves crossing the Atlantic in the MDR, but some left over African Dust shroud the waves and no development is expected at this time. The morning MIMIC does indicate the Saharan Arid Layer is beginning to weaken as we typically see as August nears and vigorous areas of Convection across the African Continent. There is a rather impressive wave about midway over Africa that some of the models are indicating may attempt to organize as they enter the Eastern Atlantic. It is important to remember that the various tropical waves indicated on the surface charts carry a lot of energy with them as the cross the Atlantic and enter the Caribbean Sea even if they lack convection on their trip across the Atlantic Ocean. I suspect in about 2 weeks we will begin to see tropical disturbances begin to organize and possibly develop as the enter the Western Atlantic Basin, particularly the waters near the Bahamas, Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. It's time to focus more attention toward the Tropics as we steadily head toward Peak Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin.

[srainhoutx]

Link to Topic in our Hurricane Central Section for newly designated INVEST 96L existing the African Coast this morning.

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=2109

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical Atlantic has heated up with activity and a vigorous Tropical Wave near 35W out ahead of 96L will likely be our next INVEST candidate. CARCAH has scheduled a Reconnaissance Mission for Saturday afternoon to investigate this disturbance as it could pose a threat to the Antilles early next week.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-063

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
       AT 30/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 57.5W WITH 6-HRLY FIXES TO FOLLOW
       IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[srainhoutx]

Another vigorous wave is exiting the African Coast and the Global Models suggest this tropical wave may cruise through the Caribbean Sea and end up in the W/NW Gulf in about 10 days or so. Time to focus back to the Eastern Atlantic as we march toward peak Hurricane Season 2016.

The attachment 08012016 18Z avn-l.jpg is no longer available

[unome]

the wave-tracking days of summer

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... vwind.html

[srainhoutx]

The Atmospheric pattern continues to look somewhat favorable for tropical development as a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave enhances thunderstorm development across the Atlantic. There is a vigorous tropical a couple of days from the Lesser Antilles and the ECMWF is suggesting an area of low pressure may attempt to organize early next week as it crosses Southern Florida and potentially nears the Southern Louisiana Coast.

[Katdaddy]

Another decent tropical wave has moved off the Africa Coast and into the E Atlantic.