August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

[Ounce]

Well, radar is showing that all of this is going to slide East right past us again. Southern counties just arent getting any relief.

Are you getting some love, now?

[StormOne]

will there be more rain tonight - looks like line weaken and moving southward.

We should be able to sleep tonight. Mostly light rain, after the line moves off the coast, and we can handle that. Only concern is that the TX Tech WRF model, which did an okay job with the last line, spawns another one around midnight. That run is not current, however. It is the 18Z run. Expect more rain tomorrow.

[worrybug]

As of 8/13/2016 9:36:38 PM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 23928 Customers without lights. Will that number increase tonight? Should a surge of new outages be expected due to the weather between now and 10 am tomorrow? This is a tropical system, after all, and it could leave millions of homes in the dark.

I am asking because I still have power at my house---but I wonder for how long?

[Ounce]

As of 8/13/2016 9:36:38 PM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 23928 Customers without lights. Will that number increase tonight? Should a surge of new outages be expected due to the weather between now and 10 am tomorrow? This is a tropical system, after all, and it could leave millions of homes in the dark.

I am asking because I still have power at my house---but I wonder for how long?

1. It doesn't matter if it increases or not. What matters is where you are in relation to the severity of the storms.
2. Refer to #1. It won't leave millions in the dark because it's not that stout.
3. What matters is where you are in relation to the severity of the storms.

[Skyguy]

As of 8/13/2016 9:36:38 PM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 23928 Customers without lights. Will that number increase tonight? Should a surge of new outages be expected due to the weather between now and 10 am tomorrow? This is a tropical system, after all, and it could leave millions of homes in the dark.

I am asking because I still have power at my house---but I wonder for how long?

Most of those outages at this time are occurring to the south of the downtown area. If you're north of these area, you should be fine. BTW: I got a HAM operator who reported lightning so intense he thought the sun had come out. Wow!

Er, Ounce, by "not that stout" are you referring to the pressure in millibars or the fact that it is now away from the Louisiana Coast?

[Cromagnum]

Well, radar is showing that all of this is going to slide East right past us again. Southern counties just arent getting any relief.

Are you getting some love, now?

Finally got about an inch. Ill take it but hoping to get 4-5 inches this week.

[houstonia]

10:10 pm AFD:

324
FXUS64 KHGX 140310
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1010 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The MCS was pushing through the coastal areas at 10 PM. Behind the
leading edge of the system, light to moderate rainfall was
occurring mainly along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor.

The upper low was located over N LA/S AR with some isolated to
scattered showers moving southward across E Texas toward our area.
The latest high resolution models show only isolated to scattered
coverage overnight for most locations. The global models keep
slightly higher chances in place. Given the current coverage
moving toward the forecast area, tweaked the chances for showers
and thunderstorms down a bit for most locations. Still kept in the
chances for locally heavy rainfall as PW/s ranged from 2 to 2.6
inches on the evening soundings. Will also reassess the rainfall
potential for tomorrow later tonight.

40

[jasons2k]

I thought the ULL was supposed to track along I-10, not into Arkansas?!?!?

[houstonia]

11:47 pm Aviation:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2016

.AVIATION...
All SETX aviation terminals received measurable rain this
afternoon. The rain moistened soil may contribute to additional
patches of light fog and stratus around daybreak on Sunday
morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also resume again late
tomorrow morning and continue throughout the afternoon.

winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms have been gusting to 25
knots...however prevailing winds are southwesterly near 10 knots.

[StormOne]

I thought the ULL was supposed to track along I-10, not into Arkansas?!?!?

Guidances had been teeter-tottering between those two solutions for the past couple days. Looks like it's taking the solution which will pose less of a flooding risk for us. At least most people got a healthyamount of rain (sorry west side, you get another chance tomorrow). Localized heavy rain will always remain possible.

[Ounce]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC239-481-141000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0074.160814T0804Z-160814T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 AM CDT

* AT 302 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THESE
ARE FALLING OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...EDNA...GANADO...MORALES...CORDELE AND LOUISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 2924 9669 2920 9629 2890 9639 2894 9680
2896 9681 2897 9681 2902 9683 2906 9694

[Ounce]

Sure looks like a counter-clockwise rotation to the showers centers around the east Beltway bridge (Jesse Jones) over the Ship Channel and moving ENE. In the 2 hour loop that I'm seeing, it looks to start around Gulfgate.

The Weatherbug site just south of Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock has recorded 0.05", since midnight.

[djjordan]

Just got home to Sugar Land driving from Lake Conroe down 249 to the Beltway .... Met an intense torrential downpour from about Willowbrook Mall to Jersey Village in that.... easily 2 inch per hour if not more rainfall rates. This airmass is very tropical. Will be interesting to see what develops today.

Parts of Wharton and Jackson counties under Flash Flood Warnings at time with some incredible rainfall rates sitting over some of the same areas.

[unome]

Just got home to Sugar Land driving from Lake Conroe down 249 to the Beltway .... Met an intense torrential downpour from about Willowbrook Mall to Jersey Village in that.... easily 2 inch per hour if not more rainfall rates. This airmass is very tropical. Will be interesting to see what develops today.

Parts of Wharton and Jackson counties under Flash Flood Warnings at time with some incredible rainfall rates sitting over some of the same areas.

it woke me up, most of the 24-hr rain total here has been in the last hr

the totals at Langham Creek are nearing 6"
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDeta ... 10:13%20AM

[unome]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 508 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST HOUSTON AND HARRIS COUNTY. RAIN RATES
REMAIN AROUND 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS. HARRIS
COUNTY FLOOD DISTRICT GAGE AT LANGHAM CREEK AT LONGENBAUGH ROAD
HAS PICKED UP 2.8 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WITH CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...NORTHERN ADDICKS
PARK TEN...SPRING BRANCH WEST...CYPRESS...WILLOWBROOK...
CARVERDALE...WESTBRANCH...HOOKS AIRPORT...FAIRBANKS / NORTHWEST
CROSSING AND SPRING BRANCH CENTRAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 3008 9553 2983 9552 2982 9578 3006 9581

$$

[unome]

hey Srain, if you're reading this, let us know if it's ok in your area, looks like it's taking a pounding (here, too)
- hope all's well

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0Q-1-200

Little Cypress Creek @ Kluge (4.72" in 3 hrs)
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDeta ... 16:00%20AM

Horsepen Creek @ Trailside Drive
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDeta ... 57:54%20AM

Langham Creek @ West Little York
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDeta ... 59:29%20AM

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for checking on me, unome. It's been raining all night, but not at the magnitude of the April Flood where I measured just over 20 inches in 12 hours. I woke up a couple of times to check on the water levels in the street in case I needed to move my Jeep. So far, so good.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:


Flash Flood Watch in effect for most of SE TX today

Heavy rainfall has certainly made a return to the area with totals since yesterday afternoon of 2-3 inches of portions of Harris County and Jackson/Wharton Counties and isolated locations of upwards of 5-6 inches. Dry grounds have been able to absorb some of this rainfall, but street flooding has been an issue especially in urban areas. This morning has been NW Harris County with 4.0-5.5 inches in the last 3 hours.

Louisiana system has sheared into an open trough over SE TX while a frontal system lingers just north of the area. PWS range from 2.4-2.6 inches and radar/gage data support hourly rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour with this air mass. In fact one location north of Crosby yesterday evening recorded 4.68 inches in 1hr and 20 min. This air mass means business with such a moist, saturated, tropical profile.

Overall general lift from the trough and surface boundaries galore will keep rainfall going just about any time over the next 36 hours. Add a little bit of surface heating and that will only help to intensify storms. Storm motions have really slowed compared to yesterday and motions this morning have been more stationary than anything. This indicates that where storms develop is where they will dump a quick 2-4 inches of rainfall.

Additional rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible today-Monday and as grounds saturate this is going to lead to more run-off and rising on area watersheds.

Rest of the week continues to look wet with daily chances for heavy rainfall which should become more diurnally driven by Tuesday and Wednesday.

[unome]

Thanks for checking on me, unome. It's been raining all night, but not at the magnitude of the April Flood where I measured just over 20 inches in 12 hours. I woke up a couple of times to check on the water levels in the street in case I needed to move my Jeep. So far, so good.

glad it's ok there - our son had to find an alternate route to work, over 1' in the street of older part of our subdivision when he left very early this AM, ok here though - there must be subsidance there, rest of subdivision is fine, but it ALWAYS floods in that section

I'm surprised there are no high-water markers on TranStar ? http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/laye ... ue&rc=true

adding: CyFair EMS & VFD have been cruising our area for a while, I'm thinking high water must still be an issue somewhere in our neighborhood

[unome]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
726 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning for the following rivers...

Horsepen Creek at Trailside affecting the following counties in Texas...
Harris

For the Addicks Reservoir at Trailside, Minor flooding is occuring, with river levels forecasted to decrease.

The current weather is dominated by 4 to 6 inches of rainfall overnight that has produced a rise on the watershed. The Creek is expected to go overbanks with possible impacts to the Hearthstone subdivision.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons are urged to stay away from the river until water levels recede.

Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate route.

Livestock and equipment should remain out of the flood plain for the next few days.



Stay tuned to NOAA Weather radio or other news sources for further updates.

&&

TXC201-150026-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FL.W.0210.160814T1226Z-000000T0000Z/
/HPTT2.1.ER.160814T1103Z.160814T1125Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
726 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flood Warning for The Horsepen Creek at Trailside.
* until further notice...or until the warning is canceled.
* At 0625 AM Sunday the stage was 113.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 113.6 feet.