August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

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DoctorMu
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TexasBreeze wrote:Summers here have changed since Ike 08. There seems to be a Ridge every week now instead of one or 2 heat/dry waves of yesteryear. Well defined active seabreeze fronts that go well inland don't happen as much either.

Even before 2008 and our 10 year drought, only the few and the brave cells sneak past Hempstead and Navasota...hence, the moniker the "AggieDome." The rare summer cold front fizzles out near Hearne and the sea breeze capitulates by Navasota.
davidiowx
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What a day for the AC to act up in my office building... Ugh it is freaking HOT!!!! outside
ticka1
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al those summer lovers - this is your prime - turn off your a/c's and enjoy the heat!!!

43 more days until Autumn and 133 days until winter!l
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StormOne
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We are in the time of the year where it is normally hot, unpleasant, and dry. The 2014 Summer was a pleasant exception. And by "dry", I do not mean bone dry like 2011. Looking at radar right now, there are a few seabreeze showers South of the 10 freeway. Even on a "dry" Summer day, an isolated shower can still happen in the Houston area, primarily South of it. This is a definition of a normal Houston Summer. Hot and humid.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
A.V.

DoctorMu wrote:The summer ridge is a frequent visitor this time of the year and can dominate the weather of the southern plains.

You can't blame the drought, then state we're not in a drought.

The 10 year drought is a long term pattern and not atypical in Texas north and west of Houston. The 10 year droughts of the 30s and 50s were arguably worse - ask the Junction Boys. The foliage adapted to the plains/savannah conditions read like an historical document, the fingerprints of a hot, savannah climate.
That summer ridge should go back to the desert where it belongs. It screws up weather in Texas and neighboring states so much; even the thick forests of the Piney Woods find themselves challenged to get rainfall in July and August at times. Brownsville and Corpus have yet to accumulate an inch of rain since June. What a rip.

And the worst thing is that there is no geographic explanation or context to it; it's just there. And it delivers rains to areas that shouldn't get them, context wise. No way that the TX Panhandle or El Paso should be accumulating more rain than Corpus or Brownsville, just no way.
DoctorMu wrote:ENSO provided some welcome, if paroxysmal relief, this year. Reservoirs were full at the beginning of the summer, and fortunately wildfire danger remains minimal. Indeed, Spring rains may have prevented the ridge from being worse than it has been. College Station has recorded 2 100°F days so far. There's some chance by the weekend that tropical flow may win a battle or two over the ridge and subsidence.

You learn to take what you can get in Texas.


The effect of CC on Texas droughts is a complex and interesting discussion. Temperature wise, we're far less affected than North Dakota, for example. Precipitation pattern changes will be challenging to predict with reasonable accuracy.
That is also part of the problem; distribution. 2014 wasn't even close to being the wettest summer in the Houston area, but since storms were more frequent, temps were suppressed, and 100F was avoided. But now, without widespread rains, Bush is busy reaching 100F frequently, while everywhere else in the Houston metro is in the 90s.
Last edited by A.V. on Tue Aug 09, 2016 4:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
A.V.

StormOne wrote:We are in the time of the year where it is normally hot, unpleasant, and dry. The 2014 Summer was a pleasant exception. And by "dry", I do not mean bone dry like 2011. Looking at radar right now, there are a few seabreeze showers South of the 10 freeway. Even on a "dry" Summer day, an isolated shower can still happen in the Houston area, primarily South of it. This is a definition of a normal Houston Summer. Hot and humid.
Nope, temps are far above normal. And although storms are better developed today, they still need better coverage. 2014 is far more of a typical summer than any summer seen thus far in this new decade. Fortunately, storm count wise, this summer has been better than previous ones so far, but August better deliver soon.
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StormOne
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It sure is getting weird looking at model runs and forecasts for periods after I won't be here... I leave here for school in Lincoln, NE in 7 days!
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
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srainhoutx
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Starting to see some consistency in the afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs. The guidance is suggesting 'cooler' temperatures due to increased cloud cover and rain chances and as Scott mentioned in the Watching The Tropics thread, we may need to watch for potential tropical troubles brewing later in the period in the NW Caribbean Sea and the Southern/SW Gulf of Mexico. And while I am at it, please remember we are a family friendly Forum and teachers use our information as a tool, particularly science teachers to excite young people about Science, The Atmosphere and all things weather which impacts us all. Please be aware that youngsters can and often do look, read our post and use our graphics and closely follow this online Weather Forum that KHOU graciously provides for us and our Community. Let's respect those younger folks when making our posts and keep them family friendly.
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A.V.

srainhoutx wrote:Starting to see some consistency in the afternoon Updated Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs. The guidance is suggesting 'cooler' temperatures due to increased cloud cover and rain chances and as Scott mentioned in the Watch The Tropics thread, we may need to watch for potential tropical troubles brewing later in the period in the NW Caribbean Sea and the Southern/SW Gulf of Mexico. And while I am at it, please remember we are a family friendly Forum and teachers use our information as a tool, particularly science teachers to excite young people about Science, The Atmosphere and all things weather which impacts us all. Please be aware that youngsters can and often do look, read our post and use our graphics and closely follow this online Weather Forum that KHOU graciously provides for us and our Community. Let's respect those younger folks when making our posts and keep them family friendly.
Teachers use these forums for their classes? That is interesting; I never knew that.
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djjordan
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No other way to say it..... IT'S HOT!!!!

Hydrate and stay in cool air if ya can.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
450 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PARTS OF HARRIS...GALVESTON AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES...


...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY...

.HIGH HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN EXCESS OF 113 DEGREES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102
DEGREES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED HEAT
INDEX VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

TXZ213-237-238-100600-
/O.UPG.KHGX.HT.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-160810T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.EH.W.0001.160809T2150Z-160810T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0010.160810T1800Z-160811T0000Z/
BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...PASADENA...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...
TOMBALL
450 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY.

* EVENT...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 TO 115 DEGREES.

* TIMING...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

* IMPACT...HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE CAN QUICKLY HAPPEN TO
ANYONE WORKING OR PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.

EACH YEAR...A NUMBER OF FATALITIES OCCUR NATIONWIDE DUE TO
CHILDREN ACCIDENTALLY BEING LEFT IN VEHICLES DURING THE SUMMER
MONTHS. IN THE PAST DOZEN YEARS...500 CHILDREN HAVE DIED DUE TO
HYPERTHERMIA AFTER BEING LEFT IN OR GAINING ACCESS TO CARS. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE NOT EVEN FOR A
MINUTE. REMEMBER...BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACKSEAT.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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You have to remember that the actual air temperatures back in 1962 were in the 112F to 115F range on this date across SE Texas. Let that sink in for a minute. Many of us didn't have Air Conditioning at that time. Just those hot attic fans circulating the steamy air throughout the house. ;)
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Rip76
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It's definitely HOT, and he's definitely back.

I saw 1 tower on my way home off 288 South.
A.V.

srainhoutx wrote:You have to remember that the actual air temperatures back in 1962 were in the 112F to 115F range on this date across SE Texas. Let that sink in for a minute. Many of us didn't have Air Conditioning at that time. Just those hot attic fans circulating the steamy air throughout the house. ;)
No they were not (unless you are talking about very, very far inland areas in SE TX); temperatures in Houston have never, ever gone above 109F (they didn't even see such level of heat until 2000).

The Houston Metro wasn't as built up at the time, so you at least had more natural surroundings in the area, meaning that heat wasn't as radiated at you, nor as retained into the night.

Just a tiny sliver of Texas, the far eastern portion east of Long 96, is the relative safe haven of the state from regular summer heat/dryness (and even then, the far northeastern portions of the area near OK can get some extreme heat and dryness); the rest of the state just gets way too hot and dry during summer. Everywhere in the state away from the Gulf Coast gets way too cold in winter.
Last edited by A.V. on Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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StormOne
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A.V. wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:You have to remember that the actual air temperatures back in 1962 were in the 112F to 115F range on this date across SE Texas. Let that sink in for a minute. Many of us didn't have Air Conditioning at that time. Just those hot attic fans circulating the steamy air throughout the house. ;)
No they were not (unless you are talking about very, very far inland areas in SE TX); temperatures in Houston have never, ever gone above 109F (they didn't even see such level of heat until 2000).

The Houston Metro wasn't as built up at the time, so you at least had more natural surroundings in the area, meaning that heat wasn't as radiated at you, nor as retained into the night.

Just a tiny sliver of Texas, the far eastern portion east of Long 96, is the relative safe haven of the state from regular summer heat/dryness (and even then, the far northeastern portions of the area near OK can get some extreme heat and dryness); the rest of the state just gets way too hot and dry during summer. Everywhere in the state away from the Gulf Coast gets way too cold in winter.
What's the general basis of your argument?

Looks like a cooldown by the weekend is likely. By cooldown, I mean mid-90s, but certainly makes a huge difference, with the addition of clouds and more scattered rain, it should make outdoor activities not pleasant, but a bit more tolerable.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
A.V.

StormOne wrote:What's the general basis of your argument?
That much of Texas is a climate rip-off. No way that the coast should be getting starved of rain, while the Panhandle is getting buckets. The areas with decent climates in the state are already very little, and if these hot dry spells were to get longer, and more frequent, then the good climates will be wiped out for good, I'm afraid. The most annoying thing about hot dry spells is how much rain falls in areas RIGHT NEXTDOOR (in addition to falling in areas in shouldn't); look at how much rain Lake Charles has gotten so far, for instance.
StormOne wrote:Looks like a cooldown by the weekend is likely. By cooldown, I mean mid-90s, but certainly makes a huge difference, with the addition of clouds and more scattered rain, it should make outdoor activities not pleasant, but a bit more tolerable.
The heat in and of itself was never my problem as much as it is the sheer dryness. Dryness in summer of any kind is a no no, not even if temps are moderate; that is way I never liked the climate of the US West of the Rockies. East of the Rockies (except the plains) has a wet summer climate, on average, but most of it gets way too cold in the winter; only a tiny sliver of decent climates hugging the coast is left, and, even then, they pale in comparison to similar areas in Australia, or South America.
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A.V. wrote:
StormOne wrote:What's the general basis of your argument?
That much of Texas is a climate rip-off. No way that the coast should be getting starved of rain, while the Panhandle is getting buckets. The areas with decent climates in the state are already very little, and if these hot dry spells were to get longer, and more frequent, then the good climates will be wiped out for good, I'm afraid. The most annoying thing about hot dry spells is how much rain falls in areas RIGHT NEXTDOOR (in addition to falling in areas in shouldn't); look at how much rain Lake Charles has gotten so far, for instance.
StormOne wrote:Looks like a cooldown by the weekend is likely. By cooldown, I mean mid-90s, but certainly makes a huge difference, with the addition of clouds and more scattered rain, it should make outdoor activities not pleasant, but a bit more tolerable.
The heat in and of itself was never my problem as much as it is the sheer dryness. Dryness in summer of any kind is a no no, not even if temps are moderate; that is way I never liked the climate of the US West of the Rockies. East of the Rockies (except the plains) has a wet summer climate, on average, but most of it gets way too cold in the winter; only a tiny sliver of decent climates hugging the coast is left, and, even then, they pale in comparison to similar areas in Australia, or South America.

I just can't understand how you forgot that we received a yearly worth of rainfall for main locations around the world in a matter of weeks a couple months ago. As for your argument about places along Louisiana receiving more rain, well that has always been the case because they are located along the central gulf coast where deeper moisture is readily available. That has always been the case. But I still don't understand all the complaining when we have been setting rainfall records left and right. Texas in general is a climate battlezone. We have the semi-desert regions of the west and northwest with a subtropical zone further to the southeast. As a result you get these spells where dry or wet periods can take over. This has always been the case.
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Texaspirate11
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Our NWS has some great stats on August heat and how August 7th has continuously been the hottest day near or around 100 degrees for years.
Got some great tropical rains today - 20% chance and we pulled the happy ticket down by the bay!
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A.V.

Andrew wrote: I just can't understand how you forgot that we received a yearly worth of rainfall for main locations around the world in a matter of weeks a couple months ago.
I didn't forget, I just rather would have had that type of rain during summer(or at least spread it out all through summer). August is far from over, true, but still.

This is what I call an epic summer climate:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goa#Climate
Andrew wrote:As for your argument about places along Louisiana receiving more rain, well that has always been the case because they are located along the central gulf coast where deeper moisture is readily available. That has always been the case. But I still don't understand all the complaining when we have been setting rainfall records left and right. Texas in general is a climate battlezone. We have the semi-desert regions of the west and northwest with a subtropical zone further to the southeast. As a result you get these spells where dry or wet periods can take over. This has always been the case.
And Louisiana having deeper moisture, while all of Texas doesn't, is just totally insane luck of the draw, if you ask me. There is literally no meaningful geographic difference between the Houston metro (especially along the coast), and places in Louisiana like Avery Island, or Lake Charles; this is especially the case when you look at the natural plants that grow in Houston (which are the same as those from all the way at the Atlantic Coast). Yet, somehow, the moisture just stays over there, spilling into Beaumont, while it is miraculously dry as you go west (except, maybe, far southern Brazoria County). I know that Houston eventually does get the moisture, but imagine if it never missed out as much?

The true battleground is the I-35 corridor; anywhere east is a true wet climate, and deserves to stay as such. Many other areas around this globe have humid zones right next to desert (Australia is a great example, as is South America around southern Argentina), but that does nothing to destroy their wet climate.

And to top it off, Phoenix, in the middle of the desert, averages more days of rain than Austin during summer. What an epic fail much of Texas is during summer.
Last edited by A.V. on Tue Aug 09, 2016 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A.V.

Texaspirate11 wrote:Our NWS has some great stats on August heat and how August 7th has continuously been the hottest day near or around 100 degrees for years.
For where, exactly, if you don't mind me asking?
Texaspirate11 wrote:Got some great tropical rains today - 20% chance and we pulled the happy ticket down by the bay!
Seems like you have to be near the coast, and north of Matagorda county, in order to escape the Texas summer climate fail.
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Texaspirate11
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A.V. wrote:
Texaspirate11 wrote:Our NWS has some great stats on August heat and how August 7th has continuously been the hottest day near or around 100 degrees for years.
For where, exactly, if you don't mind me asking?
Texaspirate11 wrote:Got some great tropical rains today - 20% chance and we pulled the happy ticket down by the bay!
Seems like you have to be near the coast, and north of Matagorda county, in order to escape the Texas summer climate fail.

For Houston - I saw it the other day and I'm looking for it - great graphicast.

Oh its hot by the bay - but we got a bit o luck today....after that, the steam was on.
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