July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Another active day ahead with the tropical environment in place. Hopefully everyone has picked up some well needed rain during the past several days.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
708 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-281300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
708 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
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srainhoutx
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On this day in Weather History in 1943 the Surprise Hurricane struck Galveston as it organized very close to the Coast and WW2 was in full swing and radio silence was in place for ship entering the Port of Galveston and the Houston Ship Channel in support of the War Effort. I encourage everyone to read the excellent historical article co written by Lew Fincher and Bill Read about this "Surprise Hurricane". I am honored to be able to call both of these local SE Texas neighbors friend.
07272016 HGX 1943 Surprise Hurricane CoXd2UXVMAQdhUU.jpg


http://www.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/surprise.html
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Getting some sprinkles, but it pretty much fell apart (again) just as it go here. At least there looks like more behind it today.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR/KLBX/KGLS...currently have VFR CIGS but could see a
brief period of MVFR this morning as SHRA/TSRA become organized
over the next couple of hours. Radar already showing showers and a
few storms forming along the coast. The 09z HRRR had a decent
handle on convective trends with showers and storms forming along
the coast and then spreading inland 14-20z. The latest 10z HRRR
has storms forming more over Houston by 16z so will need to watch
these trends. Activity may come to an end during the late
afternoon rather than later in the evening. Main threats from
storms beside lightning will be gusty winds. Overnight expect VFR
CIGS to continue with light winds. May still get some low stratus
to form in the morning and then possibly more convection for the
late morning hours Thursday.

KCLL/KUTS/KCXO...currently VFR CIGS but have had a mix of IFR/MVFR
CIGS as well at times. Trends in HRRR support convection
developing later in the morning with possibly TSRA in the early
afternoon. Will go with VCTS for now but could need TSRA depending
upon how convection develops. Storms should dissipate later in
the afternoon. VFR CIGS are expected overnight but with winds
decoupling and clear skies...could get some decent radiational
cooling. Fog could then develop Thursday morning and likely
restrict visibility.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
A weak upper low was shearing out over Louisiana and far eastern
Texas early this morning. The best moisture axis evident on water
vapor and the RAP analysis was across the Louisiana coast west-
southwest into the Upper Texas coastal waters and across Matagorda
Bay. RAP PW/s were between 2.2 and 2.3 inches in these areas.
Drier air rotating around the upper low was evident with PW/s 2
inches along and north of a line from about College Station to
Livingston.

The model consensus for today is for the deeper area of moisture
to move inland and north. Best chances for rain and thunderstorms
will be along the coast this morning with the storms moving inland
over the northern counties this afternoon. With the PW/s still
near 2.3 inches, there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall with
the stronger storms later this morning especially for locations
along and south of the I-10 corridor. The cloud cover and rain
areas will again make for a difficult temperature forecast. Still,
the potential is there for many inland locations to reach into the
lower 90s this afternoon.

For the remainder of the week, drier air will work its way
overhead. Although the models keep a weakness in the upper ridge
over Southeast Texas, 500 mb heights actually rise over the
weekend and through the first half of next week. This combination
should result in daytime highs reaching into the lower and mid 90s
and for at least afternoon and early evening chances for showers
and thunderstorms.

40

MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting out
this morning over the upper Texas coast. Like the last couple of
days, thunderstorm activity should spread inland during the day.
Overall coverage of storms should be less today as moisture
decreases some and the upper level trough moves west. Winds this
morning are running about 15 knots from the south for much of the
Upper Texas Coast. Winds should decrease later today and tonight.
Light to moderate southerly winds should continue into the
weekend.

Seas will be lingering around 3 feet today but decrease some as
winds decrease for the end of the week. Tide levels will likely
remain near normal levels or maybe a half foot above normal.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 76 95 76 96 / 50 20 30 10 20
Houston (IAH) 93 77 95 77 95 / 50 20 40 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 89 83 92 83 91 / 60 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
unome
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1043 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick update to adjust PoPs based on latest radar trends. A few showers and storms will remain possible across the coastal waters through the remainder of the day, but the bulk of additional shower and thunderstorm development today is expected to occur north of Interstate 10 where drier air moving around an upper level disturbance over northwestern Louisiana has limited cloud cover over the northern two-thirds of the region. Additional heating courtesy this cloud cover will prompt more convective development this afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through late afternoon. Morning soundings from FWD, LCH, and CRP showed precipitable water values greater than 2" and, while widespread heavy rain is not anticipated, stronger cells will be capable of anywhere from localized 1-3 inch amounts leading to minor flooding issues. SPC mesoanalysis does show limited environmental bulk shear to support storm organization, but stronger storms will also be able to produce some 25-35 MPH gusts as updrafts become water loaded and collapse. Temperatures today will also be tricky, with a mix of cloud cover and the scattered coverage of rain providing a range of high temperatures from the mid 80s to low 90s.

Huffman
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jasons2k
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Finally some decent rains and coverage up here. Better late than never!
unome
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from http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1607271556

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1056 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

... Preliminary Rainfall Reports over the past 24 hours...

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.


click the link, too long to post, I don't know how to embed this :(
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DoctorMu
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Katdaddy wrote:Another active day ahead with the tropical environment in place. Hopefully everyone has picked up some well needed rain during the past several days.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
708 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-281300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
708 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
Bring it!

I had to revise my rain total yesterday down to 0.2 in...due to a sprinkler system adjustment. :( A potential customer is approaching from the SW as I type though.
A.V.

I don't know what model ABC 13 or Weather Channel is using, but it is clear that they have no handle on where this oncoming heat ridge is going to be. The afternoon update showed that Monday of Aug 1 is going to be dry, due to the heat ridge... but the NWS forecasts make no such mention of it during their afternoon update, instead talking about afternoon seabreeze storms all through the period.

And the Weather Channel is on crack; there is no way a forecasts will be that drastically different between Houston and Beaumont (especially at coastal areas of Houston).
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:On this day in Weather History in 1943 the Surprise Hurricane struck Galveston as it organized very close to the Coast and WW2 was in full swing and radio silence was in place for ship entering the Port of Galveston and the Houston Ship Channel in support of the War Effort. I encourage everyone to read the excellent historical article co written by Lew Fincher and Bill Read about this "Surprise Hurricane". I am honored to be able to call both of these local SE Texas neighbors friend.
07272016 HGX 1943 Surprise Hurricane CoXd2UXVMAQdhUU.jpg


http://www.history.noaa.gov/stories_tales/surprise.html
The Surprise Hurricane was a Category 2 hurricane. It had a central pressure of 967 millbars with 105 mph winds. The highest sustained wind on land is 90 mph with gusts as high as 134 mph. It had radius of maximum winds of 15 nautical miles. It as fairly large hurricane with radius of outer close isobars of 250 nautical miles at landfall.

Documentation for 1931 to 1943
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/la ... e-2014.pdf

The intensity of 1943 Surprise Hurricane is at page 21 of 26.
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srainhoutx
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Precipitable Water values remain near 2 inches this morning and with an approaching upper low over the Gulf heading our generally direction, believe that showers and storms will develop today inland as we reach the upper 80's. Depending on the exact track of the upper low, we should see continued chances for heat of the day showers and storms into the weekend as we end the month of July.

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Srain, thanks for the report on the Surprise Hurricane.
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DoctorMu
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Be careful what you wish for!

0.6 in of rain yesterday in CLL and we tie the highest DP I've seen in here this morning at 79F.


It's like a sauna out there.

Image


The sea breeze is kicking up early. Revised forecast indicates widely scattered showers today, but disagreement about whether an ULL in the Gulf meanders to the Texas or Louisiana Gulf coast. Isolated showers possible during the weekend and early next week the middle ground for now...


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
708 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion...main concern will be the development of
convection later this morning and into the early afternoon. Radar
already shows some widely scattered activity in the gulf but not
much inland. Based on model soundings showing precip water values
around 2 inches, will need to warm into the upper 80s for
convective temp. Look for more showers to develop 15-17z inland
and along the coast. May get TSRA by 17-19z but do not think
coverage will be quite as much as the last few days. CIGS should
be VFR with some fog at KCXO giving the only MVFR CIG. Expect
convection to be ending 21-23z this afternoon with VFR overnight.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that moved into the far eastern portion of the
state yesterday was sheared out this morning and well northeast of
the state. A look at the upper level systems affecting the pattern
over Southeast Texas showed two areas of high pressure, one over
the UT/AZ/NV border and another off the mid Atlantic coast. A
weakness in the ridge was located over our area with the eastern
high pressure area ridging across southeastern Louisiana into the
Upper Texas coastal areas. An upper low was moving slowly westward
across the north-central Gulf.

Moisture associated with the shearing out system will be generally
north and west of the forecast area today. A slightly drier
airmass associated with the upper level ridge will help lower the
rain chances today. However, enough will be present for isolated
to scattered coverage. Temperatures continue to be a challenge but
with less storm coverage, enough sun should appear for highs to
reach into the lower to mid 90s.

The models have divergent solutions on the evolution of the upper
level low over the north central Gulf during the next 24 to 48
hours. These include shearing out the system as it moves into
the Louisiana coast or shearing out the system as it moves into
the Upper Texas coast. If the second scenario pans out, slight
better chances of rain will be possible on Friday and maybe again
on Saturday. Otherwise, the models continue to fill in the upper
level weakness over the area. This will lead to mainly daytime
chances for showers and thunderstorms as the seabreeze becomes the
more dominate driver for convection. Daytime highs should reach
into the mid 90s with less cloud cover and slightly higher heights
aloft.

40
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

BRAZORIA TX-HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA...SOUTH CENTRAL
HARRIS AND EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1100 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BONNEY...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF ANGLETON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARLAND...SOUTHEASTERN SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...ALVIN...
STAFFORD...SOUTH HOUSTON...MANVEL...FRESNO...GREATER HOBBY AREA...
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...MEADOWS PLACE...ARCOLA...
BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...IOWA COLONY...BONNEY...THOMPSONS...
GOLFCREST / BELLFORT / REVEILLE...WILLOWBEND...
MINNETEX AND BRAYS OAKS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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kayci
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Yup!!! The skies are talkin' in Alvin right now!
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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

TXZ213-227-281730-
HARRIS TX-FORT BEND TX-
1152 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL HARRIS AND EAST CENTRAL FORT
BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1151 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GALLERIA...OR OVER BELLAIRE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN MISSOURI CITY...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...JERSEY VILLAGE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...ASTRODOME AREA...
SPRING VALLEY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...FOURTH WARD...
SPRING BRANCH WEST...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE...SECOND WARD...
GREATER EASTWOOD...GREATER GREENSPOINT...DOWNTOWN HOUSTON...
ADDICKS PARK TEN AND GREATER HEIGHTS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Katdaddy
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

TXZ199-200-212>214-227-281800-
HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-WALLER TX-LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
FORT BEND TX-
1220 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HARRIS...SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY...
CENTRAL WALLER...NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY AND
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

AT 1220 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BROOKSHIRE TO NEAR HIGHLANDS.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN MINOR
FLOODING AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...SUGAR LAND...BAYTOWN...
NORTHERN MISSOURI CITY...DEER PARK...STAFFORD...SOUTH HOUSTON...
BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...RICHMOND...
GALENA PARK...TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...WESTERN LIBERTY...
JERSEY VILLAGE...DAYTON...HEMPSTEAD AND PRAIRIE VIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
Cromagnum
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Pretty much an anti-rain halo around the Rosharon area all week. I think today only got a light dusting of sprinkles at best. :|
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StormOne
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Got decent rain here yesterday, but today the storms hit the Kingwood dome and split apart before hitting us.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote:Pretty much an anti-rain halo around the Rosharon area all week. I think today only got a light dusting of sprinkles at best. :|
Our Aggiedome is hanging in there...but at least the outflow boundaries are refreshing.
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