July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

[tireman4]

Same story. Same dance for awhile...

FXUS64 KHGX 181200
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns today center around
SHRA/TSRA developing near the terminals through early evening.

A plume of Gulf moisture continues to spread across the Southeast
Texas terminals this morning, with ongoing isolated SHRA near
Galveston and east of the Interstate 45 terminals this morning.
Expect shower coverage to expand inland mid to late morning with
additional heating, with isolated to scattered TSRA possible near
all inland terminals early afternoon to early evening. High
resolution guidance is fairly consistent in greatest coverage
along the sea breeze this afternoon and have included a TEMPO
mention in for the Houston terminals/Sugar Land 20-23Z in
response. Atmospheric conditions will again support brief heavy
downpours today (resulting in hit or miss sub-VFR visibilities)
and stronger cells capable of variable 20-25 knot wind gusts.
Similar to yesterday, expect all activity to wane with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise, southeast winds less than 10 knots and
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of thunderstorms
for the next 24-30 hours.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Ridge over the Southern Plains getting stronger and heights have
risen over SETX in the last 24 hours. Corresponding increases in
temperature profile showing up in area soundings earlier this
evening and this morning in AMDAR soundings. 850 temps 19-20C/700
10-11C...starting to get the early morning showers to light up
over the coastal waters and also near High Island. Southeasterly
flow this morning may back slightly which should keep speed
convergence going through 7-9 AM with showers mainly south of an
Edna to Pearland to Liberty line. With expected heating today
atmosphere quickly destabilizes and the early morning showers
should transition over to a mix of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Greatest rain chances should stretch from around
Wharton to Sugarland to Houston to Livingston this afternoon with
storms moving west and northwest...seabreeze should also help to
focus storms though as moist as the atmosphere is progged to get
may still see some isolated storms over the Gulf this afternoon
spreading into the coastal counties late in the afternoon.
Rainfall should be spotty but can`t rule out a quick inch of rain.
Funnel clouds and waterspouts yesterday and environment remains
favorable for these again today. Temperatures should be slightly
tempered by precip and cloud cover today. Expect storms to
dissipate between 6-8 pm tonight. Tuesday moisture over the region
should gradually begin to lessen with increased subsidence the
rain chances should taper down and northern areas probably won`t
see much in the way of today`s coverage. Wednesday through
Friday will likely be dry over the area as ridge strength peaks
and sags south then west...if any areas see rain it will probably
be isolated in nature and confined to the I-10 corridor southward.
Saturday into Sunday rain chances improve with ridge retreating
and disturbances rippling around the ridge finally track into
SETX from the east. Lingering troughiness over the Gulf should
keep Saharan dust out of our forecast through at least early next
week if not longer. This shear axis slides west and with moisture
on the increase will likely see a noticeable increase in rain
chances in a week.

Temperatures this week should continue to run just above normal in
the mid 90s with Tmin in the lower to mid 70s so a little closer
to normal. Thursday could end up being the hottest day of the week
if current progs hold with minimal cloud cover and strong
subsidence. Ensembles indicating unusually hot weather expected
over LA and extreme East Texas Thu-Fri before ridge moves. So
temperatures Wed-Fri may need nudging upward if this pattern
holds.

45

MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate southeast to east winds will prevail
across the coastal waters this week with the region located in
between a surface high over the southeastern US and lee troughing
over the High Plains. In response, expect seas generally in the 2-4
feet range through the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible across the coastal
waters through mid to late week. Near normal tide levels will
increase to slightly above normal by the second half of the week as
a more persistent easterly fetch sets up across the northern Gulf.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 97 75 98 / 20 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 93 76 94 76 97 / 50 0 30 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 90 82 91 / 30 20 30 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14

[DoctorMu]

srain:

Today and next weekend indeed are our best chance for rain...I think we'll see oscillation between the success of stoutish ridging to our north and its weaker bellyside with eastern flow. I have my fingers crossed that the ridging might give way to a September pattern slightly earlier than usual...and a tropical wave or two may indeed pay a visit until then.


Wed-Fri could yield the highest temps of the year - we have not hit 100°F yet.



Saturday into Sunday rain chances improve with ridge retreating
and disturbances rippling around the ridge finally track into
SETX from the east. Lingering troughiness over the Gulf should
keep Saharan dust out of our forecast through at least early next
week if not longer.

[BlueJay]

We WERE lucky yesterday and enjoyed a brief but heavy-ish downpour late yesterday afternoon. It did cool things down. Maybe we will get another summer shower sometime soon.

[DoctorMu]

East of I-45 the seabreeze had more oomph with storms up through Livingston.

On the west side they hit the wall of the mothership ridge around Hempstead...and that's it. I had hoped the outflow boundary from yesterday would create enough lift today, but no such luck.

Some showers around Hou...maybe tomorrow, too.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

HARRIS TX-
355 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 353 PM CDT...RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...SOUTH HOUSTON...GALENA PARK...
JACINTO CITY...GREATER FIFTH WARD...SECOND WARD...
GREATER EASTWOOD...GREATER HOBBY AREA...CLOVERLEAF...
GREATER THIRD WARD...NORTHERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...MACGREGOR...
GOLFCREST / BELLFORT / REVEILLE...DENVER HARBOR / PORT HOUSTON...
MEADOWBROOK / ALLENDALE...PARK PLACE...PECAN PARK...
MAGNOLIA PARK...HOBBY AIRPORT AND CLINTON PARK TRI-COMMUNITY.

[DoctorMu]

Tiny cells are forming along an old outflow boundary from New Waverly to Bryan

Last chance for romance!

[DoctorMu]

Broken line just north of the homestead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdv2Wp9MzY0

[BlueJay]

Bone dry but WOW what a beautiful sunset!

[Katdaddy]

Another day of widely scattered tropical showers and a few thunderstorms before the ridge strengthens resulting drier weather across inland portions of SE TX. Funnel clouds and waterspouts are possible this morning thanks to the deep tropical moisture in place.

WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191700-
SAN JACINTO-POLK-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-HARRIS-
CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...THE WOODLANDS...CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...
BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...
PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...
ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...
MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...EDNA...BAY CITY...
PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...
FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON
430 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...FUNNELS AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUD AND WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION.

FUNNELS IN THIS TYPE AIRMASS ARE USUALLY SHORT LASTING AND RARELY
REACH THE GROUND. HOWEVER...DO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY IF ONE IS
OBSERVED AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF IT APPEARS TO DESCEND
CLOSER TO THE GROUND. THEY CAN AND SOMETIMES DO BRIEFLY TOUCHDOWN
AND PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS TYPICALLY FORM IN THE MORNING HOURS OFFSHORE AND IN
THE BAYS. DESPITE ANY MYTHS...THEY ARE HAZARDOUS TO BOATERS AND
BEACH GOERS AS THEY CAN PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. IF SUCH
A FEATURE IS OBSERVED...MOVE AT A 90 DEGREE ANGLE FROM ITS
APPARENT MOTION AND DO NOT TRY TO NAVIGATE THROUGH ONE. THOSE ON
THE BEACH...SEEK STURDY SHELTER UNTIL IT HAS PASSED OR DISSIPATES.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Global Ensembles are indicating a potential pattern change is possible later next week as the pesky Upper Ridge flattens and shifts West suggesting a weakness develops across the Lone Star State and the potential for a little more activity as thunderstorm complexes possibly drop SE around the Eastern flank of the Western Ridge with a weak NW flow aloft. The various ensembles also are indicating lowering pressures across the Western/Central Gulf of Mexico may well be possible and the potential exists for increasing tropical moisture in the mean Easterly flow across the Gulf as well. It is also noteworthy that the Madden Julian Oscillation is still in a favorable wet phase across our Region and that should continue into early August.

[wxman57]

Wow! It's hot in July - who would have thought? There were quite a few showers/storms around the past few days. I measured 1/2" of rain on Sunday afternoon. The rain missed my house yesterday, though. More showers around today. Nothing going on in the tropics for a few weeks.

[djmike]

Is it just me or does it feel awfully nice and dry today? Low humidity? Almost feels like spring or fall. Atleast here in Beaumont it does. A co-worker even mentioned it before I brought it up. Gonna try and enjoy it while I can. I know it wont last long. Probably be gone in a matter of hours. lol. Have a great Tuesday.

[kayci]

Wait... what???? wetness falling from the sky and plants/lawn breaking into happy dance???

[Ounce]

Third day of rain around Katy Freeway and Chimney Rock. Adding to the 1.25" from Sunday and Monday. Lots of lighting, too.

Update: Received 0.75" in 30 minutes. Just a sprinkle, now.

[GBinGrimes]

Please, please, please...may the wall that blocks the seabreeze showers from visiting the Brazos Valley take a break for today!!!

[unome]

if this falls apart before it gets here I will just cry...

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook and Day 8+ Analogs are in rather good agreement that a Western Ridge/ Central-Eastern Trough Upper Air Pattern regime will organize next week. The ECMWF and GFS Ensembles are fairly tightly clustered giving credence the sensible weather pattern expected in the Medium Range. It appears that after this weekend, showers and storms will become rather typical as the Azores/Bermuda Ridge allows for an Easterly flow at the surface and a NW flow aloft which tends to favor more convective complexes to develop and drop SE around the periphery of the Western Ridge.

[DoctorMu]

if this falls apart before it gets here I will just cry...

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif

haha Same here. Yesterday's boundary showers appear to be stirring - an hour earlier. I hope we fall under the line today though after missing out on yesterday's action.

Some good news in that we've been underperforming TWCs forecast highs by 1-2°C in CLL and closer to NOAA (not unusual). Accuweather is a absolute joke with local forecasting here.


The spigot is off after today for a few days...and we may rise close to 100°F. We haven't made it yet, though. It's been quite awhile (decade?), but a summer under the century mark would be a pleasant change.

Beginning on Monday per rain the ridge retreats and weakness may allow scattered showers, even here in CLL. Wait for it...




I do need to be careful what I wish for. The last storm cost me a fridge compressor...well, the entire unit *sigh* Feast or famine in Texas. We have bigger and battle tested surge protectors now. Shields up.

[Katdaddy]

Another day of isolated scattered tropical showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps I will get more than 0.01" this afternoon.

[DoctorMu]

Please, please, please...may the wall that blocks the seabreeze showers from visiting the Brazos Valley take a break for today!!!

Any luck? Eastern Brazos co and Grimes had some showers breeze through.


Nothing here in CLL