INVEST 95L: Yucatan/Bay of Campeche

[srainhoutx]

A tropical wave currently traveling behind the TUTT low nearing the Mexico Gulf Coast has been given a bit of attention by the National Hurricane Center. This IS NOT the disturbance that the longer range guidance is suggesting and shows that even in less than hospitable upper air conditions, the NW Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche does not seem to care.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave and a weak low
pressure area. Development of this system is not expected today
due to it moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize later today.
Some development of this system is possible on Friday if the
system emerges over the Bay of Campeche before again moving inland
on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Blake

[srainhoutx]

The National Hurricane Center has designated the tropical disturbance INVEST 95L. Now we will get additional computer model guidance for this disturbance.

[srainhoutx]

Very early track and intensity guidance.

[srainhoutx]

Reconnaissance Missions to investigate 95L have been tasked:

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 23 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-028

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71              FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
       A. 24/1800Z                       A. 25/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 01CCA INVEST             B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
       C. 24/1500Z                       C. 25/0900Z
       D. 19.5N 94.0W                    D. 20.5N 96.5W
       E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z           E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1500Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT               F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[brooksgarner]

Already on my Facebook page, people are obsessing over each of the four daily major model outputs from the GFS ... Some folks are already debating whether, "the hurricane" hits NOLA or Houston. I've cautioned that these computer model outputs are essentially meaningless this far out, since nothing has formed -- and there's not even a guarantee that something, "will form". I'm remiss to say that it's falling on deaf ears. I'm not sure how to explain that they are wasting their time. I guess if it helps them get serious about preparing, it's not all bad... but just be ready for the social media meteorologists to start their heat engines.

[tireman4]

Agreed Brooks. Way way to early....

[brooksgarner]

... and ... POOF! The "modelicane" has disappeared.

GFS unforecasts the "big one." ... But, in GFS-fashion, maybe by July 1st, it'll re-forecast it.

[mckinne63]

My guide is what ya'll say! Though this forum serves as a reminder to make sure you are prepared. I am stocking up on water and other supplies this weekend. Best to be prepared. When Ike started I was already stocked up so didn't have to fight the lines.