JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs suggest more of the same regarding our sensible weather. It is noteworthy that 1979 is now showing up as the top 2 Analogs. Could we see another Claudette like tropical system come July? Time will tell and we will be monitoring carefully.
1979 had neither El Nino or La Nina. The idea of a Claudette type storm is interesting.

There is also 2002, 2004, and 2006 and they were wet as well.
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Katdaddy
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A hot and humid conditions to continue through the week but thankfully very little to no rainfall.

...ELEVATED HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 TO 107 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THESE HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S COMBINE WITH DEW POINT
VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT THE BODY/S ABILITY TO PROPERLY COOL ITSELF AND CAN
LEAD TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

MOTORISTS... PLEASE REMEMBER TO CHECK CAR BACKSEATS FOR
PASSENGERS AND PETS BEFORE EXITING YOUR VEHICLE. IF OUTDOORS...
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR
INDOORS...AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.
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tireman4
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To add onto what Katdaddy stated, gonna be a hot one this week folks. Stay hydrated. Watch yourselves...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 141109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR cigs over northern TAF sites will begin to mix out after 15z.
Southern TAF sites will likely remain VFR. Not a lot of change to
previous TAF package with high pressure in control. Better
potential for MVFR cigs again over northern TAF sites as cap
strengthens over the region. Winds will generally remain S-SW
backing more southerly toward later aftn...then veering back to
the S-SW overnight. 43


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Evening upper air analysis showed shortwave ridging continuing to
build over Texas with a weak disturbance just east of the region.
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms over northwest Louisiana early
this morning are associated with this disturbance and are expected
to remain well outside of the region as the parent disturbance
slowly translates east today.

There may still be enough of a weakness aloft over the far
eastern counties for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop
later this afternoon. However, with weak capping and gradually
drying conditions becoming established today only covering these
areas with a silent 10 PoP. Otherwise, low stratus and patchy fog
slowly developing across Southeast Texas early this morning is
expected to lift/scatter out by late morning with temperatures
rising into the low to mid 90s this afternoon. Dry and humid
conditions are expected again tonight across the region, with
overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80.

The upper ridge centers itself over Central and East Texas
Wednesday and Thursday before retrograding westward by the
weekend. The upper air pattern will allow dry conditions to become
established across the region through Saturday and promote 850 MB
temperatures into the 20-23 C range. This will allow afternoon
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s through the remainder
of the week. These temperatures, coupled with dew points in the
70s, raise concerns for elevated heat index values in the 100 to
107 degree range for most of the week. Will go ahead and cover all
of Southeast Texas with a Special Weather Statement highlighting
this threat, recognizing that some portions of the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods may not reach heat index values that high today
with dew points mixing out to slightly lower values than yesterday
afternoon.

A disturbance sliding westward under the southern periphery of
the retrograded upper ridge on Sunday will bring low chances for
showers and thunderstorms back into the region at the beginning of
next week.

Huffman

MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern is in place with high pressure over
the northern gulf coast and lower pressures over the western high
plains. A weak land breeze component is expected overnight near
the bays with a weak sea breeze each aftn. Winds will probably
increase each night and will relax a bit each afternoon. Upper
level ridging and low level dry air should limit rain chances
through the end of the week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 76 93 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 94 78 94 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 88 81 88 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43
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Katdaddy
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The hot and humid weather continues as we watch the tropics. Thankfully the ridge of high pressure will remain strong keeping any tropical development well S of SE TX.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure could form in association with a
tropical wave crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this
week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system if the low emerges over the waters of the Bay of Campeche or southwestern Gulf of Mexico later on Sunday or Monday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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srainhoutx
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The upper Ridge looks to flatten out over the Southern Plains and retreat West Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the Northern and NE Gulf Coast. Rain chances increase early next week with an Easterly flow and lower temperatures in the upper 80"s to near 90. The potential tropical system well to our South may also enhance Coastal showers and thunderstorms.

Yet another Easterly tropical wave approaches the Gulf of Mexico mid next week further increasing our rain chances. Some of the computer models continue to advertise the potential of another area of disturbed weather attempting to spin up later in June. If the Global pattern is correct, there is the possibility of an Eastward moving Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave approaching the Eastern Pacific and the Western Atlantic Basin around the end of June/early July suggesting the possibility of favorable conditions for tropical development with rising air that aids in tropical thunderstorms to organize. We will continue to monitor the computer guidance for clues of any potential tropical troubles later in the month closer to our Region as some of the Analogs are rather suggestive of a pattern capable of allowing such a system to possibly organize in the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned and stay hydrated the next several days.

Image
06152016 1115Z avn-l.jpg
06152016 USA_latest.gif
06152016 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
06152016 500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif
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tireman4
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Be careful out there folks....stay hydrated...stay safe...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.AVIATION...
A brief window of MVFR cigs will mix out by mid morning with
generally clear skies expected areawide by this evening. Fcst
soundings show a much drier moisture profile tonight into early
Thursday and don`t think MVFR cigs will be a likely Thursday
morning. Winds will generally remain less than 10 knots through
the TAF period. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging continues to build over Texas early this morning,
with this feature expected to anchor itself over the region later
today into Thursday. This will keep hot, humid, and dry conditions
in place across the region through the end of the week. Some
patchy fog and low stratus early this morning will dissipate by
mid-morning, with party cloudy skies allowing highs in to rise
into the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and mid 90s inland.

Recent rainfall and onshore flow will keep dew points elevated in
the 70s again today and tomorrow, but dry southwest flow above the
surface through the mixed layer (to around 5000 ft) and some
daytime mixing will allow for dew points this afternoon to drop
near to a few degrees below what they reached yesterday (low-mid
70s). This will keep heat index values generally in the 100 to 107
range today and tomorrow and will continue to advertise heat
concerns with an areawide Special Weather Statement.

The upper ridge begins to retrograde westward by Friday. This
will allow low level southwest flow to back and weaken with dew
points remaining elevated into the afternoon hours Friday and
Saturday. As a result, both of these days will need to be
monitored for potential heat advisories as heat index values
continue to increase.

Medium range guidance continues to advertise the development of
some kind of tropical system in the Bay of Campeche this weekend
(currently sitting at a 20% chance of development into a tropical
cyclone over the next 5 days). While this will remain an area to
monitor over the coming days, the strength of the upper ridge
(impressive 600-601 decameter heights over Colorado/New Mexico by
Saturday) and Southeast Texas` location on its southern periphery
look to keep anything that develops well south of the region.

Northeast flow aloft becomes established Saturday with the ridge
centered northwest of the region. This will help cool high
temperatures a bit (highs in the low to mid 90s) and bring rain
chances back to the region at the beginning of the week. A weak
disturbance tracking under the ridge will provide enough lift for
shower and thunderstorm development on Sunday as it sends a weak
backdoor cold front into the region. Easterly surface flow in the
wake of the front looks to be short-lived, with southeast winds
resuming and drawing another wave of tropical moisture back into
the region Monday and Tuesday. This will keep rain chances in the
forecast through the beginning of next week.

Huffman

MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern is in place with generally light to
moderate southerly winds. A sea breeze may develop each afternoon
and push inland with weak offshore land breeze winds along the coast
in the morning. Winds may increase each night and relax a bit each
afternoon. Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm chances
the rest of the week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 75 95 75 94 / 10 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 75 95 / 10 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 81 91 81 89 / 10 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43
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BiggieSmalls
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This oppressive humidity looks to be covering the entire state, even West Texas, with the exception of El Paso (based n current dew points).....Even Midland and Lubbock look to be almost as bad off as the rest of us. Awful.
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tireman4
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222
FXUS64 KHGX 151755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.AVIATION...
Forecast this TAF period a little tricky for ceilings and
flight category. Persistence would argue for a period of MVFR conditions
and lower cigs late tonight and Saturday morning. However guidance
hints and slightly drier air in lowest levels. for this reason am
continuing current TAF thinking of more of a scattered lower deck
for IAH on south. MOS guidance generally supports this idea as
well. Did go with a period of lower cigs for CXO...UTS and CLL in
line with peristance and GFS MOS. 46

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface obs show temps in the mid/upper 80s with dewpoints
in the mid/upper 70s. There are even some dewpoints along the
coast in the low 80s. Heat index values are reaching up into the
mid/upper 90s yet again. Heat will be the main concern today but
may be a bit more tricky. SW winds will allow for some mixing
today with skies clearing back to the SW of Houston on visible
satellite imagery. Dewpoints could mix into the upper 60s which
may keep the heat index lower. High res mesoscale models show
sea/bay breeze working into Houston and coastal areas later this
evening. While temperatures may be dropping off a bit, dewpoints
could spike up into the upper 70s/low 80s behind the sea breeze
this evening. This could allow for heat index values back close to
105F even from 5-7PM this evening. Heat will continue for the next
several days so will have to closely monitor heat index forecast.
Possible that a heat advisory may be needed towards the end of the
week. Heat advisory criteria is 108F for SE Texas and will be
getting close to that Friday and Saturday.
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srainhoutx
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The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggest we may get some relief after this brief Heat Wave. The Upper Ridge looks to remain anchored to our West opening up the Gulf for some deeper tropical moisture and shower/storm possibilities. The Day 8+ Analogs continue to advertise some very memorable years along the Texas Coast regarding potential tropical mischief. This serves as a great reminder, particularly since we have added a Million+ folks in SE Texas alone that have never experienced a Tropical Cyclone to prepare now! Do you have a Plan for your family? Do you live in an area that is at risk of Storm Surge? Is your Insurance needs up to date? Remember Flood Insurance requires a 30 Day Wait Period before going into effect. Do you have a disability or special need that may require you to leave the area? Do you have enough food and water to feed your family for at least 3 to 5 days without electricity? This Weather Forum is filled with a tremendous amount of Information that can be very helpful and educational. When Weather Worries come our way, you can rest assured the KHOU Regional Weather Forum will be here to provide the most accurate and reliable information possible.
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Thank goodness, if that verifies.
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tireman4
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Great land of heat it is hot out there..my loathing of Summer is Wxman 57's delight...


00
FXUS64 KHGX 152038
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis at 20Z had a lee trough over the high plains of
Texas with weak high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
There is enough of of a pressure gradient to support moderate S/SW
winds which has allowed from some mixing of drier air from the mid
levels of the atmosphere. That said, surface dewpoints are still
in the low/mid 70s with upper 70s along the coast. Temperatures
have reached the mid 90s which has supported heat index values
around 102-106F. Galveston has hit 105-108F at times early this
afternoon.

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge positioned over
much of S Texas. Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with
this ridge slowly retrograding and expanding over the southern
Rockies for the end of the week and weekend. Heights at 500mb
reach 598-600 decameters by Sunday over the S Rockies with 591
decameters mover SE Texas. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are all in
pretty good agreement with this scenario going into the weekend.

As typical for summer in Texas, this will support hot conditions
through the end of the week. High temperatures will likely be in
the mid 90s and perhaps hit upper 90s in a few spots. While low
level moisture will mix some, dewpoints will still be high enough
to support high heat index values. We will be watching
temperature/dewpoint trends but possible that a head advisory will
be needed Friday and maybe Saturday for heat index values 108F or
greater. As a reminder, please be careful in the heat as even for
early/mid June this is a bit warmer than normal and people are not
used to the heat. Limit outside activities, take breaks, drink
water, check on elderly and kids. Check the back seat of your car
if you have kids. Use lots of sunscreen.

Sunday through Tuesday next week...GFS/ECMWF and to a lesser
degree the Canadian all bring a short wave into SE Texas under the
ridge Saturday night into Sunday. The corresponds with an increase
in moisture with precipitable water values reaching 2 inches
mainly along the coast. There seems to be some building
consistency for this scenario so increased rain chances to 40
percent for at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. With
moisture that high and weak upper level winds, heavy rainfall will
be possible and some storms could produce high rain rates. Rain
chances look to persist Monday into Tuesday. This will largely
depend upon how quickly the ridge builds back over Texas. ECMWF is
much stronger with the ridge than the GFS Monday into Tuesday.

There has been some discussion of possible tropical activity in
the Bay of Campeche Sunday into Monday as a tropical wave moves
across the Yucatan. Models continue to keep this feature south
into Mexico which given the strength of the upper level ridge,
make sense. We will obviously continue to monitor this in the
forecast data, but we are not expecting any development that will
affect the Texas coast.

Overpeck

&&

.MARINE...
A typical summertime pattern is in place with generally
light to moderate southerly winds due to high pressure ridge over
the Gulf. Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm chances
the rest of the week. Winds become more southeasterly over the
weekend as surface high builds over the Southeast and tropical wave
crosses the Bay of Campeche. The upper level high will weaken
allowing for rain chances back over the waters Saturday night and
Sunday. 46


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 96 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 81 91 81 89 79 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...46
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Katdaddy
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The hot and humid weather continues for SE TX:

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL INTO THE MID 90S EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OFF NEAR 90. THE
COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL BOOST HEAT INDICIES AND
WARRANT EXTRA PRECAUTION TODAY.

* IMPACTS...HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY DEVELOP QUICKLY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WORKING OUTSIDE OR PARTICIPATING IN
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT
STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN
POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE
IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.
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srainhoutx
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Thursday Morning briefing from Jeff:

Heat Advisory in effect for all of SE TX today and will likely be extended into Friday and Saturday.

Afternoon temperatures pushing the mid 90’s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70’s are resulting in heat index values of 104-109 during the late morning to late afternoon hours. Upper ridge just to our NW and overall heat build in the local air mass may result in a degree or two warmer today and Friday pushing afternoon heat index values into the 105-107 range over a larger part of the area

Upper ridge builds to nearly 600DM over the southern plains this weekend, but also shifts slightly toward the NW allowing deep easterly flow to develop across SE TX. An upper air disturbance within this ENE to E flow will approach on Sunday and likely result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. May need to keep an eye on any potential W or WSW moving MCS that may form in the mid to late afternoon hours…such systems can produce severe winds as they move SW into a “super heated” air mass over the region. This is more typical in July or early August than June.

Into next week the ridge will attempt to establish over TX again, but looks to elongate and spread out to our north allowing heights aloft to remain low enough to provide daily showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze front. Temperatures will cool from the “mini” heat wave of current into the low range for this time of year of low to mid 90’s for highs and upper 70’s for lows.

Tropics:
Tropical wave located over the NW Caribbean Sea will move WNW into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. While upper level winds and sea surface temperatures are favorable for development, the likely interaction with land should prevent much significant development.

The Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea is looking fairly favorable for tropical cyclone formation this season and the last few weeks with both Bonnie off the SE US coast and Colin in the eastern Gulf are favoring this active trend. This does suggest an increased threat risk for the US Gulf coast this hurricane season with close in and potentially rapid development.

A look back at hurricane seasons post strong El Nino events indicate that 6 hurricanes have impacted the US Gulf coast in the summer following the 5 strongest El Nino events.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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tireman4
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Stay careful out there folks....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 161251
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
751 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

.AVIATION...
LIFR/MVFR cigs developing over mainly the northern/western half
of the region. MVFR cigs very close to both IAH and HOU terminals.
Dry air aloft should begin to mix to the surface and expect cigs
to mix out by 15-16z. Generally clear skies expected this
afternoon with MVFR cigs expected late tonight into early Friday.
Light S-SW winds expected through the TAF period. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid continue to be the words of the day as area remains
dominated by area of high pressure aloft. We should see some low
clouds and fog around to start the day given the abundant low
level moisture in place, however sunny skies will once again
prevail by late morning. This will quickly make conditions quite
uncomfortable once again today, beginning mid to late morning
along the coast and early afternoon inland. We expect some mixing
to help with heat indicies this afternoon. However, maximum HIs in
the 104-108 range are expected across the area as afternoon temps
warm well into the mid 90s. While just below our `criteria` for
heat advisories in southeast TX, it will be close enough to
warrant one given the first real `heat` of the season and to be
consistent with neighboring offices. We can expect these hot and
humid conditions to hold through Saturday, before increasing
clouds and rain chances begin overspreading the region on Sunday.
This will occur as ely mid level flow aloft under strong upper
high to the north becomes established, and a weak shortwave trough
moves across the area. Rain chances will remain in the forecast
into Tuesday, before we return to a near normal forecast by the
middle of next week with highs in the lower to mid 90s with slgt
rain chances each afternoon.

Evans

MARINE...

A typical summertime pattern is in place with generally
light to moderate southerly winds. Winds become more southeasterly
over the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the Southeast
U.S. and a tropical wave crosses the Bay of Campeche. The upper
level high will weaken allowing for rain chances back over the
waters Saturday night through Monday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 76 96 / 0 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 81 89 80 89 / 0 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...
Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...
Grimes...Harris...Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...
Matagorda...Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...
Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...48
Aviation/Marine...43
mcheer23
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I better get used to it being warm...especially if we have a La Niña winter, but that's months ahead :oops:
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 161755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2016


.AVIATION...
Mixing has taken care of most of the shallow CU 1500-2500 ft over
the area...only a little remains from around 66R-IAH-BPT and much
of this will likely mix out by 20z. SW winds should back to the S
and SSE late this afternoon with shallow moisture rich layer
trapped beneath the cap. Will see a patchy MVFR ST deck develop
this after midnight and probably reaching greatest coverage around
12z and could expand to include KIAH but most of it will be
further inland and northwest. Rapid mixing again tomorrow should
end the MVFR conditions by 13-15z with SW flow.
45

&&
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Beginning to see more indications that the potential for increasing favorable conditions for tropical development may arrive late June/early July. The latest data suggests a robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave could arrive across the Eastern Pacific and spread East into the Western Atlantic Basin in about 10 to 15 days. What the CCKW does regarding atmospheric conditions is allow rising air across the Tropics assisting in tropical thunderstorms to organize. Upper level wind shear that could blow the tops off tropical thunderstorms is relaxing, meaning the potential exists for tropical thunderstorms to congeal and persist. Conditions conducive for tropical development continue to increase across the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Next week we appear to have a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Central/Eastern Gulf with a very unsettled monsoonal trough anchored across Central America. We will need to monitor the trends, particularly near the Nicaragua/Honduras Caribbean Coast's as tropical waves move Westward and may attempt to organize a surface low.

The Medium and Longer range guidance continues to advertise the upper Ridge will be anchored over Arizona with a weakness developing along the Middle Texas Coast on East as additional frontal boundaries drop South into the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Northern and Northeastern Gulf Coast.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
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Our backyard thermometer says its 101F out there. It almost makes talk of a tropical development actually materializing seem kind of inviting. (That's a scary thought :? ).
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GBinGrimes
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Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2014 1:50 pm
Location: Anderson, TX
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Arrived home this evening at 6:15 and the weather gauge registered 102 . It was and IS HOT!!! Tropical development has so many factors on which to depend. I'd be satisfied with daily afternoon sea breeze showers and storms, like it seemed all the summers growing up provided.
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Katdaddy
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Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
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More hot and humid weather to continue with Heat Advisories remaining in effect across N, NE, E, and SE TX. Mid to upper 90s across SE TX for afternoon highs. Stay cool out there.
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