JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
306 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO
THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEACH CITY...MONT BELVIEU...OLD RIVER-WINFREE AND COVE.

[ticka1]

if you are friends with me on facebook just posted pictures of flooding in baytown about 20 mins ago .....

[Rip76]

These storms are moving nowhere fast.

Watching radar earlier, it's like the circulation shed its original skin and threw it all toward Louisiana.
And started all over.

[Heat Miser]

These storms are moving nowhere fast.

Watching radar earlier, it's like the circulation shed its original skin and threw it all toward Louisiana.
And started all over.

What's over Mont Belvieu has got to be the center of circulation and it's been sitting there for hours now.
Stationary to me.

[ticka1]

7-9 inches of rain has fallen.

The circulation is moving west and not east why is that? Or is it wobbling?

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
422 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 418 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. NEARLY 9 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE WARNED
AREA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...BEACH CITY...HIGHLANDS...BARRETT AND WESTERN MONT
BELVIEU.

FLOOD WATERS ARE ALSO MOVING DOWN CEDAR BAYOU FROM FM 1492 TO
HIGHWAY 146 AND BAYOU FLOODING IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

[kayci]

Question: The weather channel posted a pop-up on my tv screen (comcast) that said 80 percent chance of rain for Manvel, Alvin, Friendswood and Pearland for tomorrow. KHOU is forcasting 40 percent chance for the viewing area for tomorrow. Who should I believe?

[869MB]

11.28 inches at Gage 1730: 1730 Cedar Bayou @ FM 1942 as of 5:13pmCDT

[869MB]

11.96 inches at Gage 1730: 1730 Cedar Bayou @ FM 1942 as of 5:31pmCDT

[srainhoutx]

Cloud tops are cooling rapidly across the Brazos River Valley. Training storms are dropping near 2 inch per hour rainfall rates from Navasota to San Felipe. Flood Advisory coming shortly.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

WHARTON TX-COLORADO TX-WASHINGTON TX-WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-BRAZOS TX-
AUSTIN TX-FORT BEND TX-
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 544 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO TRAINING
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN SOME AREAS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BRENHAM...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...SEALY...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...
BELLVILLE...EAGLE LAKE...WASHINGTON...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...PINE
ISLAND...SIMONTON...SAN FELIPE...PATTISON...KENDLETON...PIERCE...
MONAVILLE...CAT SPRING AND HUNGERFORD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN SOME LOCATIONS.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[DoctorMu]

Wow - that midlevel circulation over Baytown/Houston is amazing - -looks almost tropical. Incredible rainfalls. Stay safe everyone!


000
FXUS64 KHGX 042043
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to swirl
across the region this afternoon. Rain totals with this activity
have been generally light, but stronger cells have been capable of
producing a quick inch of rain. The main upper level low
continues to push southeast towards Corpus Christi this afternoon,
but a secondary mid-level circulation (evident on afternoon water
vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis) appears have to developed
roughly over the Houston metro. The surface reflection of this
feature appears to be located near Galveston Bay, which has
provided a focusing mechanism for a nearly stationary complex of
thunderstorms over eastern Harris County/western Chambers County
this afternoon. Rainfall totals with this complex have been
nothing short of impressive, with a Harris County gauge near Cedar
Bayou and FM 1492 reporting over 8 inches of rainfall in the past
3 hours from this complex. Expect a localized flash flood threat
to continue in this area for the next few hours before loss of
heating weakens not only this complex (with RAP guidance
indicating it drifting more to the east with movement from the
surface low), but the widespread showers and thunderstorms
occurring across the region. Given these anticipated trends, will
allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at 7 PM this evening.

A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible overnight, with
better coverage expected during the day tomorrow with the mid
level shear axis remaining along the coast and the development of
a weak sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. An
approaching weak cold front (stretching from the Permian Basin
into Northwest Texas this afternoon) will slowly approach during
the day on Sunday, reaching the Brazos Valley Sunday evening.
Precipitable water values will remain high ahead of this feature
(around 1.8 to 2 inches) and the threat for brief heavy rain will
continue for coastal areas. Similar to the past few days, expect
convection to wane with loss of daytime heating.

[Rip76]

Could this move into the Gulf?
There doesn't seem to be much steering going on.

[DoctorMu]

Could this move into the Gulf?
There doesn't seem to be much steering going on.

The Houston cluster is starting to weaken as daytime heating subsides. Things will fire up again tomorrow, hopefully with less focal intensity.

[DoctorMu]

16.42 in of rain IMBY for May.


Unbelievable.

[srainhoutx]

WESTERN GULF COAST

THE UPPER TROF OVER EASTERN TX IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING
THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS INTENSITIES---THE THREAT OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
WESTERN GULF COAST WHERE ANOMALOUS PW VALUES AND AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY CELLS THAT FORM ALONG THE WESTERN GULF
COAST---WITH ADDITIONAL LOCAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUING.

[srainhoutx]

Our pesky elongated trough is still overhead today and thankfully that feature as well as a disturbance across the Northern United States likely protected our Region from newly classified Tropical Depression # 3 in the Southern Gulf just off the Northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible into Tuesday before a respite from the heavy rainfall pattern we have been in for what seems like weeks. Will be closely monitoring developments WSW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec where early morning satellite imagery suggests a low level spin has developed and would not be surprised to see an INVEST 92E classified today. That tropical disturbance is expected to move NE toward the Pacific Coast of Mexico and some mid/upper level energy may well cross over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche later this week. While development is not expected in the Western Gulf, some very deep tropical moisture originating in the NW Caribbean Sea is expect to move NW toward the Mexico and Texas Gulf Coasts and increase our rain chances next weekend.

Edit to add: INVEST 92E has been classified for the area of disturbed weather SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific

[Rip76]

Seems fairly stable this morning, but with a very nice breeze.

[jasons2k]

Thought a front was supposed to push through today - but no mention of it in any of the discussions now - is that still the case?

[srainhoutx]

METAR and surface obs do suggest the frontal boundary is draped along the Coast