May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Ounce
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Looks like the starting point of all this rain, presently at Beeville, is no longer expanding in a SW direction.

Locally, it's a helluva lightning display. Looking forward to the sun going down for a greater display!
jojotheidiotclown
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this "summer" can go pound sand. Sick of the rain. Crave blue skies and bright sun.

So many are suffering. Everything long term shows more of the same wet crap.
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Rip76
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It just doesn't want to push off the coast.
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Texaspirate11
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Storm finally at the bay - the lightening is amazing!
Got 2 inches so far.
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txflagwaver
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Seems to be moving offshore into the Bay headed out finally.
Still raining but NOTHING like earlier. More thunder and lightning after the rain than during..but definitely headed out and away from us.
ticka1
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anymore after this moves offshore?
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StormOne
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ticka1 wrote:anymore after this moves offshore?
I am not pro, but looks like the weekend will have our typical daytime heating storms that we all know and love during the Summer. I think the flash flood threat is done, but many rivers and creeks still have more than a day to go until they crest.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
ticka1
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still thundering and lightning here in baytown at 11:00 pm
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Someone please reassure me: There's no reason to believe this departing system will move off the coast, become tropical, turn around and come back for a second hit. Correct??

Once burned, twice shy... But I think it's more than twice that rainy systems have done that.
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srainhoutx
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Calmer weather with a typical summer time pattern wish heat of the day pop up showers and storms look like a reasonable forecast for the remainder of the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. I hope everyone can relax a bit from weather worries for a few days and those that suffered losses due to rising flood waters can begin to recover. Again it appears at least 3 lives were lost when they drove into flooded roadways. As simple as it seems, we will always say without embarrassment...# Turn Around Don't Drown!!
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ticka1
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latest email from jeff lindner:

This is a Civil Emergency Message for the Voluntary Evacuation of the Northwood Pines Subdivision

Water levels in Spring Creek will rise to near record levels today of 109.4 ft. Water will rise to within 1.0-1.5 feet of the top of the levee by this evening.

Below is the official release of this evacuation request

“Northgate Crossing M.U.D. #1, the Harris County Flood Control District and Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Management are asking residents of the Northwood Pines subdivision living north of the Hardy Toll Road as well as the Park at Northgate Apartments to voluntarily evacuate their homes by 2:00 p.m. on Saturday, May 28, 2016.

THIS IS A PRECUATIONARY MEASURE. HOWEVER IN THE EVENT OF A LEVEE BREACH OR FAILURE, ROAD AND HOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

Residents should evacuate all family members and pets. In addition, they should take all medications and important papers, such as insurance policies.”
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05282016 Jeff Spring Creek unnamed.png
unome
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full info at the link: http://www.readyharris.org/go/doc/1829/2833982/

Bayous and creeks throughout north Harris County are running high and rainfall in west Harris County has caused stormwater to rise in the Addicks and Barker reservoirs. This is in addition to the water that remains in the reservoirs following the Tax Day/April 2016 flood.

As water levels rise in the reservoirs, roadways that run through them could go underwater. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are monitoring the situation and say that State Highway 6 and North Eldridge Parkway through the Addicks Reservoir, and Westheimer Parkway through the Barker Reservoir, will likely go underwater early Saturday, May 28.

Residents in neighborhoods adjacent to the Addicks and Barker reservoirs are urged to remain alert of these pending road closures and to plan alternate routes.
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srainhoutx
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HWY 6 and Eldridge PWKY is close to going over the roadway again and may need to be closed via Jeff above Addicks Reservoir. Westhiemer PKWY is also close to going over the road at Baker Reservoir.
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srainhoutx
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Water may flood elevated homes on West Fork of San Jacinto River and water levels WILL be higher than Tax Day Flood per Jeff. Also HCFCD at Kingwood Community College has been overtopped by San Jacinto River.
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srainhoutx
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Watershed Update from Jeff:

Major flooding ongoing along several watersheds this morning.

Spring Creek:

Record to near record flooding is in progress along the creek with numerous bridges being overtopped and homes flooding on both the Harris and Montgomery County sides of the creek.

Creek continues to rise downstream of FM 2978 with crests overnight over record levels at SH 249 and near record levels at FM 2978.

The attachment 05282016 Jeff 1 unnamed.png is no longer available
West Fork San Jacinto River:

Major flooding is in progress and will continue through the weekend. Subdivisions are cut-off downstream of US 59. Water levels will likely exceed Tax Day flood levels, but are not expected to reach October 1994 levels.

SJRA is currently releasing 22,000cfs
05282016 Jeff 1 unnamed.png
East Fork San Jacinto River:

River is near major flood level and will rise above this level this morning and will remain above this level into early next week
05282016 Jeff 2 unnamed.png
Lower San Jacinto River:

Major flooding is likely in Highlands, Banana Bend, and Rio Villa:
05282016 Jeff 4unnamed.png
Willow Creek:

Creek is overbanks along the entire watershed. Creek is near crest at SH 249 and will begin a very slow fall today

Little Cypress Creek:

Creek is overbanks along the entire watershed, but is near crest and starting to fall. House flooding may have occurred

Cypress Creek

Creek is near or just above banks along much of the channel but is nearing crest. Water levels will not reach Tax Day 2016 levels. Current water levels along the creek support roadway flooding along the channel and some flooding of subdivision streets. Some of the lowest homes near the channel may be flooding.


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srainhoutx
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Not sure I've seen this since the satellite era over SE Texas. The outflow boundary has encircled SE Texas this morning.
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05282016 TX VIS 1324Z latest.jpg
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singlemom
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I am a teacher at a school in Klein ISD that was flooded in yesterday afternoon\last night. Over 200 students were flooded out of their subdivisions and buses just turned around and brought students back. Shortly thereafter, we couldn't even got out of our school. Students finally left at 8:00 p.m. last night. Teachers were there to help our kiddos stay safe and cared for, but we were also stranded and couldn't get to our families.

Needless to say, if there is anything like this repeating itself next week (as we have to work an extra day to make up for the last flood), we would all truly appreciate it.....if for nothing else than to prepare for this ahead of time and parents (and staff) can be advised.

Of course, I'll be watching this site more closely next week but if you guys have a general idea of if or when things are firing up next week that would be helpful as I have kiddos to take care of and do not have time to watch the newsfeed.

This site is, hands down, the most reliable source of information I've found in the Houston area (especially in the forecast department). Thanks!
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srainhoutx
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Singlemom, we are glad that the kids are safe most importantly. I as well as most if not all of our members understand the importance of relaying the most accurate and reliable information possible when it comes to weather forecasting in advance and know fully well it is NOT an exact science with so many unforeseen challenges that even the most seasoned Professional Forecasters can miss. We strive to do our best with the tools and experience we have and this speaking from The National Weather Service Forecasters to our Media Forecasters as well as Private Forecasting sources we trust and partner with in these Weather Challenges.

Thank you for the very kind words regarding the KHOU Weather Forum. You've been around this site for years and we appreciate ALL of our very loyal members and those that have joined recently, or those that just read and never participate. We know from data that our reach during Major Weather Events can exceed Millions of hits our site and social media feeds. We know folks have been helped and that encourages us to provide updates and share our experiences freely with our neighbors both locally and around the Gulf Coast. We continue to receive many kudos for our efforts here on the KHOU Weather Forum as well as our Facebook and Twitter Feeds for passing along accurate information. Our goal is to protect lives and property as much as humanly possible and to give as much advance notice of potential Weather Worries that may come our way.
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singlemom
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:) You are one fantastic Admin Srain, I and I appreciate everything you and the forum's crack team of Mets do for us. I know forecasting Texas weather is in no way an exact science.

We'd just appreciate a heads up as early as you can give us. Many parents were advised way, way after the fact and that escalated the situation.
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jasons2k
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There is a lot of flooding along spring creek affecting neighborhoods and roads along Rayford and Riley Fuzzel / 99 areas. The water is still rising too.
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