May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

[Cromagnum]

Is anybody else concerned about the cell over Rosharon, Manvel, and Iowa Colony? It appears to be moving very slowly.

This is where I live and power has been out nearly and hour. Tremendous amount of rain and lightning.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
430 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 429 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PEARLAND AND ROSHARON. THESE STORMS WERE
DRIFTING EASTWARD. RAINFALL OF 2 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE STREET FLOODING. THIS
WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHWESTERN PEARLAND...SOUTHWESTERN LEAGUE CITY...SOUTHWESTERN
FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...SANTA FE...MANVEL...FRESNO...ARCOLA...IOWA COLONY...
HILLCREST...LIVERPOOL...BONNEY...THOMPSONS...BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...
SIENNA PLANTATION...CHOCOLATE BAYOU...ROSHARON AND JULIFF.

[kayci]

Went to Seawolf park this morning for my son's birthday and stayed from 10:30 a.m. till about 2:30 p.m. we had just a few sprinkles (no complaints it was a nice change from the heat). Packed up and came home to a T-storm in the distance coming in from the west in Alvin. Now, heavy lightning, and LOTS of rain heavy & steady rain. Now I'm wanting to make a pot of chili and put in a movie marathon for the night. P.S. my tomato plants are smiling!

[mckinne63]

It is coming down pretty hard in Stafford. Have not heard any thunder or lightening, just lots of rain.

[Ounce]

The cool breeze of the outflow has reached Chimney Rock and the Katy Freeway.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
524 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 523 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SLOWLY DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT
IN MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO ONE TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...NORTHERN LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...NORTHERN
MISSOURI CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...ALVIN...SOUTH
HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...
JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...JERSEY VILLAGE...NORTHEASTERN MANVEL...HUNTERS
CREEK VILLAGE AND BUNKER HILL VILLAGE.

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC201-212300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0071.160521T2233Z-160521T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
533 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 533 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HUNTERWOOD...
OR NEAR CLOVERLEAF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BARRETT...CLOVERLEAF...CHANNELVIEW...KINGWOOD...CROSBY...EL DORADO /
OATES PRAIRIE...SHELDON...SETTEGAST...HUNTERWOOD...NORTHSHORE...EAST
HOUSTON...LAKE HOUSTON DAM...LAKE HOUSTON...EASTERN ATASCOCITA AND
HOUSTON GARDENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2977 9521 2983 9530 3011 9508 2987 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 223DEG 31KT 2984 9522

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$


Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT

[DoctorMu]

A lot of discussion with those Forecasters today both at the NWS and Media level while we were attending the Houston/Galveston Hurricane Workshop today. What was missed is we are in a feedback situation like we see during a drought feedback. The upper Ridge was forecast to be stronger even at the WPC level and clearly those forecasts were not correct. What we will need to monitor is the longer term trends particularly with already saturated soils and more disturbances headed our way throughout the coming week into the Memorial Holiday Weekend. What is raising some eyebrows is the suggestion of an Easterly wave moving across the Gulf next weekend into the early days of June. I really do not see any significant change in the current pattern even into the Extended Range that does not bode well if we have some sort of tropical or sub tropical system meandering in our backyard.

Any storms that do fire are capable of dropping 2 to 4 inches of heavy rainfall in short order, so we will need to monitor the radar daily and frequently.

Right. Instability in the air remained with recent storms. The cool air and trough in the east remained stubborn. Sure beats early and persistent establishment of the summer Death Ridge. Moisture is high. No cap and lift. Enough energy to start popping popcorn.

Our cell was intense enough with some hail near Somerville. Racked up another 3.2 inches of sprinkler system damping quality goodness.

Series of surface lows and a trough setting up late next week, but there's a chance of rain in the adjusted forecast every day.


Nice outflow boundary pulsing north from the Houston cell.

[StormOne]

Just got a burst of intense (not severe) wind and heavy sideways rain here at the Kingwood/Atascocita border. Tried to go to Huffman to get to the severe part but the rain beat me and I was not about to drive in that.

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC039-220030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0075.160522T0003Z-160522T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
703 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 703 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREEPORT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREEPORT...SURFSIDE BEACH...JONES CREEK AND OYSTER CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2884 9551 2900 9542 2898 9521 2880 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 296DEG 24KT 2889 9539

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC291-220015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0074.160521T2345Z-160522T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 644 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
LIBERTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...KENEFICK...DEVERS AND
DAYTON LAKES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2994 9488 3011 9494 3027 9465 3011 9460
3011 9456 2993 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 250DEG 25KT 3007 9480

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Ounce]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC039-321-220100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0076.160522T0027Z-160522T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
727 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 727 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JONES CREEK...
OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...FREEPORT...CLUTE...SURFSIDE BEACH...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...
JONES CREEK...OYSTER CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN WILD PEACH VILLAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 2891 9565 2901 9567 2907 9561 2908 9523
2882 9530 2880 9532
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 276DEG 19KT 2898 9554

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[srainhoutx]

Showers and thunderstorms are developing along the Louisiana Coast with additional storms across the offshore waters of the NW Gulf. Beginning to see some development over Montgomery County this morning and with a pesky NW flow aloft, storms should continue to fire as we heat up throughout the day and the seabreeze becomes active.

Will need to monitor developments upstream across Central Texas for any potential thunderstorm development where the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today and Monday. We may see a bit less in the way of thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, but cannot rule out heat of day activity. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of dropping very heavy rainfall rates as we witnessed yesterday.

An early look at the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend forecast suggests increasing showers and thunderstorms as moisture pooling ahead of a deepening Western trough with embedded disturbances riding across the Region with a SW flow aloft becomes established.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
614 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

JEFFERSON TX-
614 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 612 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. OVERFLOWING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL RESULT IN
MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...GROVES...PORT NECHES...NOME...
CENTRAL GARDENS...HAMSHIRE...CHINA...PORT ACRES...SOUTHEAST TEXAS
REGIONAL AIRPORT...LA BELLE AND FANNETT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0225
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
813 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...SW LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 221210Z - 221800Z

SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 IN/HR WITH SOME POTENTIAL
TRAINING/CELL REDEVELOPMENT MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA HAS PROPAGATED WESTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT
AND IS NOW AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EXTREME SERN
TX. AN IMPRESSIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE IN THE
INFLOW AIR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR
80 DEG F, AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.
ADDITIONALLY, PWAT VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 2" ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN TX.
EVACUATION OF AIR ALOFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM GIVEN
UPPER-LEVEL SPEED DIVERGENCE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH A JET STREAK FROM LA EAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. SIMULATED
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH PRECIP
EFFICIENCY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 4-5 KM WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS, WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 IN/HR (IF NOT
LOCALLY HIGHER) RAINFALL RATES, WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
LATEST HOURLY PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM RADAR. INDIVIDUAL CELL
MOVEMENT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT, BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OF NEW CELLS AS THE WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
INTERSECTS THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS RESULTING IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS AND SOME CELL TRAINING.

MOST HI-RES CAM DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION, WITH ONLY THE HRRR AND HRRR-EXPERIMENTAL SHOWING SOME
SEMBLANCE OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY (ALTHOUGH BOTH OF THESE APPEAR
UNDERDONE). THE HRRR-EXP SHOWS THE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH 18Z. GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF
MOVEMENT IN THE BEST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW/CONVERGENCE AXIS, THE DEGREE
OF WESTWARD PROPAGATION APPEARS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR MAINTENANCE OF CONVECTION ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY PER THE RAP. THE RAP EVEN
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE HOUSTON AREA ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH WOULD SLOW THE
WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION IF THAT OCCURRED. GIVEN AREAS
OF LOCALLY REDUCED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OUTLINED AREA, FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE IF THESE HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES WERE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE OVER THOSE LOCATIONS.


RYAN

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

LIBERTY TX-
722 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 720 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...KENEFICK...DEVERS...DAYTON LAKES AND
MOSS HILL.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
748 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

ORANGE TX-JEFFERSON TX-HARDIN TX-
748 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CDT

* AT 746 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLEN SO FAR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BEAUMONT...PORT ARTHUR...NEDERLAND...GROVES...PORT NECHES...LUMBERTON...
VIDOR...BRIDGE CITY...WEST ORANGE...SOUR LAKE...NOME...THICKET...
SARATOGA...CENTRAL GARDENS...HAMSHIRE...SABINE PASS...BEVIL OAKS...
CHINA...ROSE CITY AND PINE FOREST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
825 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 824 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... SOUR
LAKE...NOME...HAMSHIRE...SARATOGA...BEVIL OAKS...CHINA...
BATSON...LA BELLE...FANNETT...AND WINNIE.

[Katdaddy]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
915 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM...
GALVESTON BAY...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 914 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER GALVESTON
BAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

HAZARD...WIND GUSTS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...SMALL CRAFT COULD BE DAMAGED IN BRIEFLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SUDDENLY HIGHER WAVES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUOY 42035...GALVESTON SHIP CHANNEL...HIGH ISLAND 63...THE TEXAS CITY
DIKE...GALVESTON BAY...GALVESTON 150...TRINITY BAY...HIGH ISLAND 157...
HIGH ISLAND A179...NORTH JETTY...HIGH ISLAND 208...EAST GALVESTON BAY...
OFFATTS BAYOU...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...ROLLOVER PASS...EAGLE POINT...
GALVESTON BAY ENTRANCE...SMITH POINT AND GALVESTON PIER 21.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Highly active weather pattern to continue for the next week or longer as upper level ridging just cannot gain control over the region.

Old surface front that moved through late Thursday with the thunderstorms complex has returned northward and is currently stalled along a line from Huntsville to Beaumont where flash flooding is ongoing over Jefferson County after 5-6 inches of rainfall this morning. Air mass SW of this boundary over most of SE TX is extremely moist with dewpoints in the mid 70’s to near 80 and unstable with CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Storms along the boundary have been moving slowly to the SE at 5-10mph this morning while a westward moving outflow boundary has progressed to Galveston IS NNW to near Conroe.

Expect the outflow boundary to continue toward the west today with development of showers and thunderstorms along this boundary and behind it (toward the east). Air mass remains unstable enough to support pulse severe storms with isolated wind damage and hail as seen yesterday across the region and excessive short term rainfall (6-7 inches over Matagorda County yesterday afternoon).

Grounds are saturated from the rainfall of late and much of what falls will run-off into area watersheds. Street flooding is likely under the concentrated areas of excessive rainfall.

Really no change in the pattern through much of the week with upper level disturbances crossing the region, numerous boundaries in place, and high moisture levels which support near daily chances for convection. Could see some enhancement of activity with disturbances and heating if the timing matches. Main threats will be pulse severe storms and flooding rainfall.

Toward the end of the week, a much more significant trough approaches from the west and widespread showers and thunderstorms look likely Friday into the Memorial Day weekend with a potential severe weather and flash flood threat.

Hydro:

Flood gate operations ongoing at several dams across TX after the heavy rainfall last week. This includes Canyon Dam on the Guadalupe River and Mansfield Dam at Lake Travis along with others as flood waters move downstream. Area rivers remain significantly elevated as upstream flood waves are passing downstream and grounds are saturated. The region remains extremely susceptible to additional heavy rainfall given very low storage values at both water supply and flood control lakes and high flows in area watersheds.

Additional rainfall over the next several days will likely slow recessions and may result in new rises.

Current releases from Canyon Dam have put the Guadelupe River below the dam above flood stage and persons should remain away from the river until releases end. This water will translate downstream and keep the river near or above flood stage at Victoria.

Flood wave is passing down the Colorado basin at Wharton with the river below flood stage, but high

Flood wave is currently generating on the middle Brazos basin between College Station and Hempstead as run-off from Thursday reaches the mainstem of the river. River will rise at Hempstead and Richmond, but is expected to remain below flood stage. River is expect to exceed flood stage at Rosharon with minor low land flooding across southern Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties.