Westpark Tollway - ICK
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/cctv ... rk_Tollway
May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May
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srainhoutx
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^^
Water vapor imagery shows another shortwave embedded in the sub tropical jet crossing Mexico. The atmosphere has been worked over so expect a relaxation of additional storm development overnight into tomorrow morning. Will need to monitor developments tomorrow evening into the early morning hours of Monday for another round of storms.
Wednesday into Thursday appears to be the timeframe we'll need to watch carefully as the Western upper low digs a bit further South and a robust shortwave moves across Texas. The various computer guidance suggest PW's may increase further to above 2 inches. Deep tropical moisture from the Weather Caribbean and the Western Gulf may surge inland allowing for rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.
Will need to monitor Monday/Tuesday for severe thunderstorms as the Storm Prediction Center already has outlined a potential Slight Risk for Severe storms.
Water vapor imagery shows another shortwave embedded in the sub tropical jet crossing Mexico. The atmosphere has been worked over so expect a relaxation of additional storm development overnight into tomorrow morning. Will need to monitor developments tomorrow evening into the early morning hours of Monday for another round of storms.
Wednesday into Thursday appears to be the timeframe we'll need to watch carefully as the Western upper low digs a bit further South and a robust shortwave moves across Texas. The various computer guidance suggest PW's may increase further to above 2 inches. Deep tropical moisture from the Weather Caribbean and the Western Gulf may surge inland allowing for rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.
Will need to monitor Monday/Tuesday for severe thunderstorms as the Storm Prediction Center already has outlined a potential Slight Risk for Severe storms.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outagetracker/
As of 5/14/2016 7:17:42 PM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 11814 Customers without lights. Next update in 5 Minutes.
As of 5/14/2016 7:17:42 PM, CenterPoint Energy reporting 11814 Customers without lights. Next update in 5 Minutes.
1.85 inches at my home in Richmond.
Another flood threat?srainhoutx wrote:^^
Water vapor imagery shows another shortwave embedded in the sub tropical jet crossing Mexico. The atmosphere has been worked over so expect a relaxation of additional storm development overnight into tomorrow morning. Will need to monitor developments tomorrow evening into the early morning hours of Monday for another round of storms.
Wednesday into Thursday appears to be the timeframe we'll need to watch carefully as the Western upper low digs a bit further South and a robust shortwave moves across Texas. The various computer guidance suggest PW's may increase further to above 2 inches. Deep tropical moisture from the Weather Caribbean and the Western Gulf may surge inland allowing for rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour.
Will need to monitor Monday/Tuesday for severe thunderstorms as the Storm Prediction Center already has outlined a potential Slight Risk for Severe storms.
Ok, laymans terms y'all.... Is Brazoria Co. (Alvin) okay for tonight? I just want a good night sleep.......
Brays Bayou at Rice Avenue is receding, according to HCFWS, and was seven feet from Top of Bank at its peak.wxman57 wrote:Over 5 inches in Westbury. Streets are a mess. Barely made it home from River Oaks Theater. Brays Bayou isn't far from the top.
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/440
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brooksgarner
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Since the bayous responded so quickly to today's rain (3.5" here in Sugar Land and 4" in Missouri City, where I watched it rain on the 18th hole!), I can only hope the tropical moisture next week doesn't translate into more widespread flooding. EURO pumping up impressive totals by end of next week. That wouldn't bode well.
Broadcast Met
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- '17 Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Active weather pattern to continue throughout the coming work week. The overnight guidance continues to advertise rounds of afternoon thunderstorms today and Monday as the weak frontal boundary currently draped along the Coast retreats North and deep tropical moisture from the Gulf and Eastern Pacific recharges the atmosphere as a Western trough continues to settle into the Great Basin near the Arizona/New Mexico border.
On Monday expect a Mesoscale Convective System to congeal across the Southern Plains and begin to trek SE across Central and SE Texas during the overnight hours of early Tuesday. A secondary shortwave rotating beneath the Western trough over Mexico may allow another Convective Complex to march East from the Sierra Madre/Lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday bringing an additional round of heavy thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates into the Region. The pesky frontal boundary looks to meander across the area through at least Thursday night allowing the chance for additional heat of the day thunderstorms with an uncapped atmosphere as well as a SW flow with very high PW's near or slightly above 2 inches.
As we have mentioned, the storm development will be mesoscale driven and almost impossible to determine exactly which neighborhoods and specific locations will get the heaviest rainfall. A good example was the Rio Grande Valley yesterday was expecting little if any rainfall and they received flooding rains and very severe storms. We witnessed locally what heat of the day thunderstorms with a stalled boundary can be capable of dropping 4 to 6 inches in short order. Stay tuned for further updates today and into the coming work week.
On Monday expect a Mesoscale Convective System to congeal across the Southern Plains and begin to trek SE across Central and SE Texas during the overnight hours of early Tuesday. A secondary shortwave rotating beneath the Western trough over Mexico may allow another Convective Complex to march East from the Sierra Madre/Lower Rio Grande Valley Tuesday bringing an additional round of heavy thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates into the Region. The pesky frontal boundary looks to meander across the area through at least Thursday night allowing the chance for additional heat of the day thunderstorms with an uncapped atmosphere as well as a SW flow with very high PW's near or slightly above 2 inches.
As we have mentioned, the storm development will be mesoscale driven and almost impossible to determine exactly which neighborhoods and specific locations will get the heaviest rainfall. A good example was the Rio Grande Valley yesterday was expecting little if any rainfall and they received flooding rains and very severe storms. We witnessed locally what heat of the day thunderstorms with a stalled boundary can be capable of dropping 4 to 6 inches in short order. Stay tuned for further updates today and into the coming work week.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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check out some of the local webcams, video timelapse
https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/in ... 1&qzoom=12
https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/in ... 1&qzoom=12
NWS, Warning Decision Training Division's QPF Training Webinar - if you have the time, it's really enlightening
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/ffawoc ... ation.html
from their site: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/
WPC QPF has long been a primary source of guidance at River Forecast Centers, but application of this national QPF program at local Weather Forecast Offices has been more variable. In recent times the NWS has moved toward a more unified approach, using WPC as a catalyst for collaborated regional and national forecasts, flood watches, and forecast messages. WPC has a number of unique tools and advantages which make it well suited for this role, but collaboration can be hindered when many users have an incomplete understanding of WPC operations and vice versa. This presentation is an effort to pull back the curtain on the WPC QPF program and clarify the strengths and limitations of QPF products in support of effective collaboration with the Field.
Archive: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/SOTM/index.php
Our Memorial Day 2015 floods became one of the "Storm of the Month" webinars: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/SOTM/0 ... ation.html
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/ffawoc ... ation.html
from their site: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/
WPC QPF has long been a primary source of guidance at River Forecast Centers, but application of this national QPF program at local Weather Forecast Offices has been more variable. In recent times the NWS has moved toward a more unified approach, using WPC as a catalyst for collaborated regional and national forecasts, flood watches, and forecast messages. WPC has a number of unique tools and advantages which make it well suited for this role, but collaboration can be hindered when many users have an incomplete understanding of WPC operations and vice versa. This presentation is an effort to pull back the curtain on the WPC QPF program and clarify the strengths and limitations of QPF products in support of effective collaboration with the Field.
Archive: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/SOTM/index.php
Our Memorial Day 2015 floods became one of the "Storm of the Month" webinars: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/SOTM/0 ... ation.html
unome wrote:NWS, Warning Decision Training Division's QPF Training Webinar - if you have the time, it's really enlightening
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/ffawoc ... ation.html
from their site: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/
WPC QPF has long been a primary source of guidance at River Forecast Centers, but application of this national QPF program at local Weather Forecast Offices has been more variable. In recent times the NWS has moved toward a more unified approach, using WPC as a catalyst for collaborated regional and national forecasts, flood watches, and forecast messages. WPC has a number of unique tools and advantages which make it well suited for this role, but collaboration can be hindered when many users have an incomplete understanding of WPC operations and vice versa. This presentation is an effort to pull back the curtain on the WPC QPF program and clarify the strengths and limitations of QPF products in support of effective collaboration with the Field.
Archive: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/SOTM/index.php
Our Memorial Day 2015 floods became one of the "Storm of the Month" webinars: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/SOTM/0 ... ation.html
Man... browsing through all of that ... it got me to thinking how far forecasting the weather has come since the "old days". Yesterdays storms being an example, I still find it amazing how one area can get over 5 inches of rain while 20 miles down the road you can barely get a trace!! Truly amazing stuff that they do at the WPC!!! I wonder how weather forecasting is going to improve over the next 30 years?
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:
Another day…another round of storms!
Surface frontal boundary has stalled along the coast from Galveston to Rockport with showers and thunderstorms having developed along this feature from S of San Antonio to SW of Victoria. This boundary will lift northward today brining another round of thunderstorms to SE TX. There also appears to be some sort of boundary from College Station to Lake Livingston where showers are trying to develop this morning…will have to watch this feature also. Air mass remains moist and uncapped although not as unstable as yesterday. Lots of cloud cover advancing from the west so heating will be held back some today compared to near 90 yesterday. Think storms will not be as intense as yesterday, but slow motions will still result in good short term rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in an hour or less.
Strong short wave moves out of MX and across SC TX tonight and into SE TX early Monday. Meso models show a complex of storms developing over W TX and progressing ESE to E overnight. Some of the models take this complex more across the coastal bend and offshore Gulf waters while others bring the system across a larger part of SE TX. Looks like about equal chances either way…but am tempted to favor the southern track more than the northern track keeping the worst of the storms SW of a line from Columbus to Freeport late tonight and early Monday. Could see a severe wind threat with any organized line and again heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Will have a better feel for how the Monday morning activity may play out after we see how storms develop today and where any well defined boundaries are produced.
Should see a break late Monday into much of Tuesday, but latest guidance is showing an extremely unstable air mass over SE TX late Tuesday ahead of an approaching weak front. CAPE soars to near 4500 J/kg with LI’s of -11. This is an extreme amount of energy built up below a capping inversion which develops during the day. If the cap breaks along the front explosive severe thunderstorm development is likely with very large hail and damaging winds. SPC has already included the entire area in a risk for severe weather for late Tuesday which is rare for a day 3 outlook.
Mid to Late Week:
Front stalls over the area and moisture pools along the boundary with PWS hovering 1.8-2.0 inches. Models showing the main upper level trough lifting across TX Thursday into Friday with moisture surging to near 2.2 inch of PW and a saturated sounding profile. Potential for excessive rainfall will be possible during this time period with such a moist air mass, strong lift, and low level boundary in place.
Hydro:
Grounds are now saturated across the region and additional rainfall will run-off into area watersheds resulting in rises. Heavy rains yesterday affected the Brazos, Colorado, and San Bernard River Basins as well as upper Cypress Creek, Brays Bayou and Addicks/Barker Reservoirs. Rises to flood stage on area rivers will be possible toward the end of the week.
Rainfall Amounts:
Not overly impressed with the QPF forecast as it is tending to spread the rainfall out of too long of durations…as seen yesterday this air mass is capable of totals of 4-6 inches in 2-3 hours not over 5 days. On top of what has already fallen rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches appear reasonable with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches or greater. This is certainly the setup where some really big rains and flash flooding can occur and much of the state is at risk.
Another day…another round of storms!
Surface frontal boundary has stalled along the coast from Galveston to Rockport with showers and thunderstorms having developed along this feature from S of San Antonio to SW of Victoria. This boundary will lift northward today brining another round of thunderstorms to SE TX. There also appears to be some sort of boundary from College Station to Lake Livingston where showers are trying to develop this morning…will have to watch this feature also. Air mass remains moist and uncapped although not as unstable as yesterday. Lots of cloud cover advancing from the west so heating will be held back some today compared to near 90 yesterday. Think storms will not be as intense as yesterday, but slow motions will still result in good short term rainfall rates of 1-2 inches in an hour or less.
Strong short wave moves out of MX and across SC TX tonight and into SE TX early Monday. Meso models show a complex of storms developing over W TX and progressing ESE to E overnight. Some of the models take this complex more across the coastal bend and offshore Gulf waters while others bring the system across a larger part of SE TX. Looks like about equal chances either way…but am tempted to favor the southern track more than the northern track keeping the worst of the storms SW of a line from Columbus to Freeport late tonight and early Monday. Could see a severe wind threat with any organized line and again heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Will have a better feel for how the Monday morning activity may play out after we see how storms develop today and where any well defined boundaries are produced.
Should see a break late Monday into much of Tuesday, but latest guidance is showing an extremely unstable air mass over SE TX late Tuesday ahead of an approaching weak front. CAPE soars to near 4500 J/kg with LI’s of -11. This is an extreme amount of energy built up below a capping inversion which develops during the day. If the cap breaks along the front explosive severe thunderstorm development is likely with very large hail and damaging winds. SPC has already included the entire area in a risk for severe weather for late Tuesday which is rare for a day 3 outlook.
Mid to Late Week:
Front stalls over the area and moisture pools along the boundary with PWS hovering 1.8-2.0 inches. Models showing the main upper level trough lifting across TX Thursday into Friday with moisture surging to near 2.2 inch of PW and a saturated sounding profile. Potential for excessive rainfall will be possible during this time period with such a moist air mass, strong lift, and low level boundary in place.
Hydro:
Grounds are now saturated across the region and additional rainfall will run-off into area watersheds resulting in rises. Heavy rains yesterday affected the Brazos, Colorado, and San Bernard River Basins as well as upper Cypress Creek, Brays Bayou and Addicks/Barker Reservoirs. Rises to flood stage on area rivers will be possible toward the end of the week.
Rainfall Amounts:
Not overly impressed with the QPF forecast as it is tending to spread the rainfall out of too long of durations…as seen yesterday this air mass is capable of totals of 4-6 inches in 2-3 hours not over 5 days. On top of what has already fallen rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches appear reasonable with isolated amounts upwards of 8 inches or greater. This is certainly the setup where some really big rains and flash flooding can occur and much of the state is at risk.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Lotsa rain here today with another band on the way. I hope everyone is safe.
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srainhoutx
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...PIERCE...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...WHARTON
402 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING... JACKSON. ...
BRAZORIA...FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
* VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR
VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
402 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...PIERCE...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...WHARTON
402 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING... JACKSON. ...
BRAZORIA...FORT ...BEND...GALVESTON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.
* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
* VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
* DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR
VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A weak coastal trough which extends from about Port Arthur to just south of Corpus Christi will serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms this morning. A short wave over West Texas will be moving east today and this feature has begun to push the convection anchored over the Corpus Christi area to the east. PW values remain very high, near 1.90 inches today. Forecast soundings don't show any capping in place and convective temps are in the upper 70. Jet dynamics are rather weak but one could make an argument that SE TX will lie in a RRQ by afternoon. Short term guidance is a bit muddled with the Hi-Res ARW taking the precipitation due east into the gulf with just a glancing blow of rain along the upper coast. The Hi-Res NMM and the RAP bring a swath of heavier rain inland as does the new 06z NAM 12. Flash Flood guidance is low (around 3.0 inches in 3 hrs) so feel a Flash Flood Watch is warranted for areas close to the coast. Will leave Harris County out of the watch as the heaviest rain in even the most aggressive models is generally south/east of the county. Confidence is low in how this event will eventually turn out and am worried that a big MCS will develop over the Gulf and steal the inflow, leaving most of SE TX dry or just some light rain.
PW values lower some tonight and doubt there will be much rain around. Tuesday continues to look interesting for a couple of reasons. First, max temps continue to be a struggle as forecast soundings support max temps near 90 degrees while guidance, although trending warmer, continues to support lower/middle 80s. Convective temps on Tuesday are between 84-86 degrees so if the temps warm to around 90, convective/instability potential will be tapped. CAPE values on Tuesday afternoon are around 4200 J/Kg with LI values around -11. If afternoon convection can develop, storms will likely become severe with damaging winds and large hail. A weak cold front will approach the region Tuesday night and forecast soundings still support a severe threat with high PW/CAPE values. SPC has placed most of SE TX in slight risk for Tues/Tues night. Will maintain likely PoPs for Tuesday night as the front moves across the region
Another short wave trough will move across SE TX on Wednesday. PW values remain between 1.65 and 1.85 inches. A weak capping inversion develops but this looks breakable by late morning. Both the ECMWF and the GFS show the Tuesday night front stalling over the region with surface convergence being maximized along I-10. Likely PoPs look in order with the boundary in place and continued high moisture content. Upper level winds remain also strongly diffluent so would not be surprised if some of the rain is locally heavy.
On Thursday, PW values remain near 1.90 inches. Upper level winds remain strongly diffluent and SE TX will also lie in a departing RRQ. Forecast soundings look saturated so again shra/tsra look likely. With the strong jet dynamics in place, it seems reasonable that some of the rain will again be locally heavy. Upper level ridging tries to develop Fri/Sat and PW values fall to under 1.30 inches. Perhaps some drying as a weak cap tries to form as 850 temps begin to warm. 43
&&
.MARINE...
Winds over most of the Gulf waters west of Freeport and over Matagorda Bay have been around 20 knots. This has been caused by the strong inflow into the MCS over the TX Coastal Bend area. Think that the winds will gradually decrease as the MCS works its way northward and diminishes in strength throughout the morning. Because of this, have extended the Small Craft Advisory for Matagorda Bay and the Gulf waters west of Freeport out to 60 NM through 10 AM. Otherwise, caution conditions are expected over Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters east of Freeport through at least mid morning.
Fairly long period of onshore winds are expected through most of this week. Wind speeds may reach caution conditions each night.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A weak coastal trough which extends from about Port Arthur to just south of Corpus Christi will serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms this morning. A short wave over West Texas will be moving east today and this feature has begun to push the convection anchored over the Corpus Christi area to the east. PW values remain very high, near 1.90 inches today. Forecast soundings don't show any capping in place and convective temps are in the upper 70. Jet dynamics are rather weak but one could make an argument that SE TX will lie in a RRQ by afternoon. Short term guidance is a bit muddled with the Hi-Res ARW taking the precipitation due east into the gulf with just a glancing blow of rain along the upper coast. The Hi-Res NMM and the RAP bring a swath of heavier rain inland as does the new 06z NAM 12. Flash Flood guidance is low (around 3.0 inches in 3 hrs) so feel a Flash Flood Watch is warranted for areas close to the coast. Will leave Harris County out of the watch as the heaviest rain in even the most aggressive models is generally south/east of the county. Confidence is low in how this event will eventually turn out and am worried that a big MCS will develop over the Gulf and steal the inflow, leaving most of SE TX dry or just some light rain.
PW values lower some tonight and doubt there will be much rain around. Tuesday continues to look interesting for a couple of reasons. First, max temps continue to be a struggle as forecast soundings support max temps near 90 degrees while guidance, although trending warmer, continues to support lower/middle 80s. Convective temps on Tuesday are between 84-86 degrees so if the temps warm to around 90, convective/instability potential will be tapped. CAPE values on Tuesday afternoon are around 4200 J/Kg with LI values around -11. If afternoon convection can develop, storms will likely become severe with damaging winds and large hail. A weak cold front will approach the region Tuesday night and forecast soundings still support a severe threat with high PW/CAPE values. SPC has placed most of SE TX in slight risk for Tues/Tues night. Will maintain likely PoPs for Tuesday night as the front moves across the region
Another short wave trough will move across SE TX on Wednesday. PW values remain between 1.65 and 1.85 inches. A weak capping inversion develops but this looks breakable by late morning. Both the ECMWF and the GFS show the Tuesday night front stalling over the region with surface convergence being maximized along I-10. Likely PoPs look in order with the boundary in place and continued high moisture content. Upper level winds remain also strongly diffluent so would not be surprised if some of the rain is locally heavy.
On Thursday, PW values remain near 1.90 inches. Upper level winds remain strongly diffluent and SE TX will also lie in a departing RRQ. Forecast soundings look saturated so again shra/tsra look likely. With the strong jet dynamics in place, it seems reasonable that some of the rain will again be locally heavy. Upper level ridging tries to develop Fri/Sat and PW values fall to under 1.30 inches. Perhaps some drying as a weak cap tries to form as 850 temps begin to warm. 43
&&
.MARINE...
Winds over most of the Gulf waters west of Freeport and over Matagorda Bay have been around 20 knots. This has been caused by the strong inflow into the MCS over the TX Coastal Bend area. Think that the winds will gradually decrease as the MCS works its way northward and diminishes in strength throughout the morning. Because of this, have extended the Small Craft Advisory for Matagorda Bay and the Gulf waters west of Freeport out to 60 NM through 10 AM. Otherwise, caution conditions are expected over Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters east of Freeport through at least mid morning.
Fairly long period of onshore winds are expected through most of this week. Wind speeds may reach caution conditions each night.
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srainhoutx
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NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 160845Z - 161400Z
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED PAST DAWN.
DISCUSSION...VERY SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
TX COAST AND AREAS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM NEAR
CORPUS CHRISTI TO ROCKPORT HAVE RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DUAL-POL RADAR ESTIMATES
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME.
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS NOW CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND MOVING INTO
SOUTH TEXAS WHERE IT IS INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT AND A
WELL-DEFINED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. IN FACT...OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS THERE ALSO HAS BEEN EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE LOW CENTER
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI IN CONNECTION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND STRONG LATENT HEAT ENERGY RELEASE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION. DUAL-POL RADAR OUT OF KCRP ALSO
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE TX COAST
WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...VERY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WITH THIS STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW
CENTER...AND SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 2 TO 2.25 INCH PWATS...RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE VERY HIGH AND MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 3 INCHES/HR.
THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST UP
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AWAY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI OVER THE NEXT 2
TO 3 HOURS AS PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...BUT AREAS FROM NEAR
ROCKPORT ALL THE WAY UP TO PALACIOUS ARE LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TOWARD
MID MORNING. GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS THE
REGION...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Flash Flood Emergency issued for Corpus Christi where 6+ inches of heavy rainfall has occurred and it is still pouring.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity