April 2016 Recap: Regional Flood/Severe Weather

[davidiowx]

Nice 10-15 minute downpour. Atmosphere is stabilizing. North winds coming in strong. Looks like this will be it for the rest of the day.

[tireman4]

Not so fast my friend....

FXUS64 KHGX 201518
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS WAS PUSHING INTO POLK...SAN JACINTO...
MONTGOMERY...HARRIS...FORT BEND...AND COLORADO COUNTIES AT 10 AM.
LIGHT RAIN WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE NAM12 HAS HAD A
DECENT HANDLE ON EVENTS SO FAR...AND THE MODEL CLEARS THE SYSTEM
OUT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE RAP AND TEXAS TECH BOTH SHOW SOME
SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. TRIMMED POPS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LESSENING RAIN CHANCES IN THE MODEL.

THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT KLCH AND KCRP BOTH HAD A PW OF 1.5/1.6
INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE RAIN GAUGE NETWORK WITH THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER A HALF AN INCH...WHILE RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME
LOCALIZED 1 INCH TOTALS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL AND COASTAL COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE LINE IN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AREA. BECAUSE OF THE LESS EXPECTED COVERAGE IN THE NORTH...
HAVE TAKEN OUT WALKER...GRIMES...BRAZOS...AND BURLESON COUNTIES
FROM THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE WATCH STILL GOES THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES...AND WILL MAKE A DECISION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THE WATCH.


Do not say all it clear yet...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff regarding River and Creek Flooding:

West Fork of San Jacinto River at Humble:

Major flooding is in progress on the West fork with many streets and some homes flooded. The river will rise and addition .5 of a ft today and crest near 57.5ft Thursday.

San Jacinto River below Lake Houston:

Major flooding is in progress and will continue into Thursday morning. Significant roadway flooding is in progress and some homes are likely flooding in Highlands and any homes on the ground in Banana Bend and Rio Villa

Cypress Creek:

Major flooding continues on the middle and lower portions of Cypress Creek with many structures still inundated, Levels have crested and are starting to fall, but the creek will remain overbanks for the next many several hours.

Spring Creek:

Creek has crested and is falling

[/i]

[tireman4]

On his Facebook, Larry Cosgrove states this storms these storms are going to segregate and refire this afternoon.,

Not what we needed...

[davidiowx]

On his Facebook, Larry Cosgrove states this storms these storms are going to segregate and refire this afternoon.,

Not what we needed...

That would certainly be interesting. And def not what we need, but with the dew points dropping off and the N winds now.. wouldn't those factors restrict that from happening?

[srainhoutx]

On his Facebook, Larry Cosgrove states this storms these storms are going to segregate and refire this afternoon.,

Not what we needed...

That would certainly be interesting. And def not what we need, but with the dew points dropping off and the N winds now.. wouldn't those factors restrict that from happening?

We should be fine after this round...but will need to monitor upstream to our NW for possible storm development tonight.

[sambucol]

Pouring down in Baytown. Lights dimmed a couple of times.

[srainhoutx]

I know a lot of folks are wondering what the forecast looks like for next week and actually into early May. The Global models and their ensembles are advertising a generally unsettled pattern will continue with a series of cold upper lows/troughs continuing to drop SE out of the Gulf of Alaska even into the longer range. Anytime we see a continued late season snow chance continuing across the Southern/Central Rockies, dynamic storm complexes are possible in the warm sector. So far there is not any indication of a QPF bomb like we were seeing as early as early last week. We certainly will continue to monitor the guidance particularly close due to the Widespread Historic Flood event that is ongoing across our Region.

[djmike]

Sun peaked for about 30min here in Beaumont. Now, the line of storms has strengthened to a solid red line and doesn't seem to be moving as fast as it was west of HOU. Might be in for more than 0.60" of rain today. Hold on to your hats Beaumont!

[unome]

awesome USGS Twitter feed for TX gauges in flood stage from Texas USGS Water Science Center
( http://txpub.usgs.gov/txwaterdashboard/ )

https://twitter.com/USGS_TexasFlood

USGS TX FloodWatch
@USGS_TexasFlood

290 @USGS real-time streamgages in TX have flood stage defined by @NWS. This autonomous feed delivers river stage/discharge data for sites above flood stage.

[davidiowx]

Flood Watch has been cancelled for the Houston area.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
313 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

COLORADO TX-WASHINGTON TX-WALLER TX-GRIMES TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
HARRIS TX-AUSTIN TX-FORT BEND TX-
313 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY

* AT 304 PM CDT...WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING CONTINUED ACROSS THE
REGION...INCLUDING FLOODING OF STREAMS...BAYOUS...AND RIVERS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WAS EXPERIENCING FLOODING INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI CITY...CONROE...EASTERN
ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...BELLAIRE...BRENHAM...HUMBLE...WEST
UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY... RICHMOND...TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...
SEALY...HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK
VILLAGE...BELLVILLE AND COLUMBUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

STAY AWAY OR BE SWEPT AWAY. RIVER BANKS AND CULVERTS CAN BECOME
UNSTABLE AND UNSAFE.

DO NOT WALK OR PLAY IN FLOOD WATERS. THERE IS THE DANGER OF
DROWNING...POISONING FROM POLLUTED WATERS...OR BEING BIT BY ANTS...
SNAKES...OR OTHER ANIMALS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. ALL
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IMMEDIATELY.

[houstonia]

Just saw an interesting tweet from HCFCD's Jeff Lindner:

Jeff Lindner @JeffLindner1

Coordinating with @NWSHouston and @WGRFC on first ever area flood warning for Addicks and Barker Reservoirs #houwx #hounews #TXWX #TWC

[srainhoutx]

With HWY 6 being closed for the next month to 6 weeks from Clay Road to Park Row over the Addicks Reservoir, that's not surprising.

[djmike]

Not that it affects anyone in Houston, but does here in the Triangle (Beaumont, Port Arthur and Orange) The SRA (Sabine River Authority) announced the possibility of opening up several flood gates again due to all the rain we've had and still swollen rivers. This is the same flood gates that were opened which caused all the massive flooding down river here in Dewyville, Orange and Beaumont. Also caused I-10 to close for several days at the Tx/La border. Lets hope this doesn't have to happen. But they warned us all downstream as a headsup caution. Hopefully after tomorrow's frontal passage, levels will start dropping everywhere and we wont have another disaster here in our backyard.

http://kfdm.com/news/local/sabine-river ... evel-rises

[davidiowx]

Any thoughts on what the HRRR is showing with the line coming in from the N/NW? I don't think it will be anything bad, but it's been pretty consistent showing a nice line of storms coming this way. Maybe it will be like the one earlier and weaken as it gets closer to us..

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday evening briefing from Jeff:

One last round of showers and thunderstorms likely on Thursday before this slow moving storm system responsible for one of the worst floods in SE TX since Tropical Storm Allison moves away.

Upper air disturbance will rotate around the system and produce a thunderstorm complex over NW TX similar to this morning. This complex will move SE and in SE TX during the mid to late morning. Should see the line move fairly quickly with rainfall amounts of generally less than 2.0 inches. Think most areas will have drained down by that time over northern Harris County and should be able to handle the rainfall.

Watersheds:

Cypress Creek: flooding continues, but the creek is falling

Spring Creek: falling back within banks

W Fork San Jacinto River: near crest…widespread flooding continues

E Fork San Jacinto River: flooding continues

Mainstem San Jacinto River below Lake Houston: near crest…but holding at this level for 1-2 days

Brazos River: moderate to near major flooding in Fort Bend County and Brazoria County

San Bernard River: Record flooding occurred at East Bernard with major flooding ongoing downstream

Colorado River: major flooding at all point below Columbus in progress.

Addicks/Barker Reservoirs:

Flooding from record pool levels will continue for the next several weeks with impacts to Hwy 6, Clay Rd, Eldridge Pkwy, and Westheimer Pkwy. Flooding of subdivision street adjacent to the reservoirs is likely in a few areas. Inundation will be prolong.

Extended:

Active weather pattern will continue for the next few weeks with additional storm systems aimed at TX. Each system will have to be watched closely given how sensitive the region will be to flooding for the next several weeks.

[Ptarmigan]

We need to send all those storms systems and let them linger over California. They can use our rain.

[redneckweather]

Storms popping up ahead of the main line. Looks like another nice wet day.

[nuby3]

Storms popping up ahead of the main line. Looks like another nice wet day.

indeed... appears to be thickening and filling in between the two systems as well