March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[unome]

https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/status/7 ... 8029910016

NWSHouston ‏@NWSHouston 1m1 minute ago

Storms rolling through Houston this hour. 40 mph wind gusts, small hail, frequent lightning. #houwx


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeTjxUKWQAAJ44L.jpg

[unome]

picked up a quick inch of rain - in approx. 1/2 hr

http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[Katdaddy]

Strong thunderstorms ahead of the cool front moving across SE TX and Houston metro currently with heavy rains and gusty winds. This will make for a messy morning commute. So far the storms have remained below severe levels. Beautiful weather Friday and Saturday before the next front to arrives Easter Sunday with moderate rain chances.

[srainhoutx]

Measured just under .80 inches of rain at the house. Clearly there was a lot of gusty winds with the storms. Oak streamers are everywhere, but fortunately the pollen received far more of a wash down than was expected under a highly capped atmosphere. The hail pictures out of N Texas and the blizzard in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska shows how dynamic this Spring storm was.

[Ounce]

Boy, we just got a big clap of thunder around Memorial and Chimney Rock. The weatherbug site down the street has recorded 0.81 since midnight.

[Katdaddy]

Clearing skies progressing across SE TX on the Easter afternoon. Enjoying the warm Spring temps.

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully everyone had a great Easter Holiday Weekend. Attention in the weather department focusing on the mid week timeframe as a strong shortwave associated with a Western upper trough begins to transition toward the Central Plains. The sub tropical jet looks to be overhead of the Lone Star State Wednesday into next weekend with the possibility of several embedded disturbances riding across Texas. Showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe appear likely Wednesday if the capping inversion breaks. A Pacific front meanders nearby which could keep things a bit unsettled through Friday. We will need to monitor the trends for Wednesday for the potential of an active weather day, particularly for some strong to severe storms attempting to develop across our Region.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Periods of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday-Thursday.

Cool front which pushed through the region yesterday afternoon will return northward as a warm front early Tuesday allowing moisture to return to the region. An upper level low pressure system currently off the west coast will move SE into the SW US over the next 36 hours resulting in an increasing SW flow aloft over SE TX. Within this flow aloft both mid and high level moisture and weak disturbances will cross the region starting as early as Tuesday afternoon, but more likely on Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday a weak cool front will progress into the area and possibly pass off the coast late Thursday.

Increasing moisture on Tuesday will allow cloud cover to expand across the region. Moisture may be deep enough by late afternoon and early evening to result in a few showers. Capping inversion above the surface will likely keep thunderstorms from forming, but will have to watch NE of a line from College Station to Liberty late Tuesday night for an isolated thunderstorm.

A decent short wave will cross the area Wednesday afternoon with SE TX firmly within the warm sector. Capping still appears to be an issue along the coast and possibly as far north as I-10, but northward the cap looks weak and breakable on Wednesday afternoon. Air mass will have a fair amount of low level instability on Wednesday afternoon, but there is really not surface trigger for thunderstorm development, except the incoming short wave lift. Think thunderstorms and some severe will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but there are a couple of big negatives to overcome…the cap being one and the trigger being the other. Should the activity get going however, severe threats including large hail and strong winds would be possible.

On Thursday a weak cool front will move into the region and add a surface focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development. May see another upper air disturbance cross the region with the front adding additional lift. This period may end up being the best time for thunderstorms, but shear values and instability appears weaker on Thursday so while a few strong storms will be possible, severe weather is not as likely as on Wednesday afternoon.

Upper level trough remains anchored to the west into the weekend with weak disturbances and impulses moving NE out of the main trough and across TX. Drier air mass should filter into the area behind the cool front late Thursday and help to reduce rain chances even with the continued favorable upper level flow and weak disturbances aloft. Should the front be too weak to push offshore, then rain chances would need to be increased Friday and Saturday with better moisture over the area.

Heaviest rains over the next 3-4 days appear aimed at areas east of TX across the deep south and lower MS river valley. Will focus the best rainfall amounts over the eastern sections of SE TX of 1-2 inches with lower amounts to the SW where it is much more in question on if thunderstorms will be able to develop due to the capping aloft. The higher rainfall amounts will likely focus on the more critical river systems still in flood from the early March flood event…the Sabine and Trinity basins. Rainfall this week will likely slow ongoing recessions on these basins and potentially lead to new rises.

[unome]

SPC updated day-2 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 9272616176

SPC AC 291711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

MULTIPLE ROUNDS/AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY NORTHWARD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND ADJACENT MID-MO VALLEY. A
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. INITIAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS DURING THE MORNING AND SHIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL TRANSPORT RICHER GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE UPPER TX COAST/SABINE VALLEY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY
REGION. A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NEB WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHERN KS WITH A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KS/OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

...EASTERN OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY --
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...

SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE MORNING...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALREADY BE
ONGOING 12Z/WED ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX INTO SW MO. WEAK TO MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ATOP RESIDUAL EML...AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEMI ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PRODUCE SPORADIC
SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
OZARKS AND LOWER/MID-MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS -- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...

THE BREADTH OF MORNING ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK/TX...AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC AND
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADEQUATE RECOVERY WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO WESTERN AR/LA IS EXPECTED. THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL SURGE
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TO ROUGHLY THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL KS
THROUGH CENTRAL OK INTO TX...AND AN UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL EXIST. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER KS AND THE MID-MO
VALLEY...WEAKENING WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...A SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND STRONGER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR
MORE SUBTLE FORCING. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON IS LIKELY NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN NEB/KS INTO SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO.

THERE MAY BE A RELATIVE MIN IN ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KS/NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHWEST MO...AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR IN SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHEAST TX AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
AR/LA. THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL HAZARD
TYPES BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

GIVEN DISPARITY AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...IN ADDITION TO
ADDED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION...NO UPGRADES WILL BE
MADE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

...ARKLAMISS REGION -- OVERNIGHT...

STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS AS THEY TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
BECOME FOCUSED OVER THIS REGION. STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..LEITMAN.. 03/29/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (12:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Andrew]

Largest lift still remains off to the north and northeast for tomorrows storm event. I suspect the added cloud cover that has been so present today will only help to limit things tomorrow. One thing that is interesting though is how much moisture is present out there, been a pretty steady stream of mist/ light rain for much of the day.

[Katdaddy]

SE TX will be on the edge of the risk areas with most of the strong to severe storms being to the N and NE of the Houston-Galveston areas. Currently a foggy and misty morning across much of SE TX. The weekend weather continues to look nice with partly sunny skies and temps in the low to mid 70s.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

large storm system over the SW US is placing TX under a favorable moist flow.

Several factors coming together to produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next 36 hours…with the best chances for thunderstorms and severe weather over N TX. Upper level jet carving into TX this morning on the SE side of the upper trough over the SW US starting to leading to large scale ascent over the central and NW part of the state. Strong warm air advection pattern at the surface has built a very moist low level air mass with dewpoints running in the low 70’s across much of the region. Weak lift is helping to generate widespread drizzle and a few light showers under a fairly strong capping inversion around 850mb. High dewpoint air mass over the cooler shelf water sis resulting in sea fog along the coast.

Not much hope for breaks in the thick low level deck today with a good chance of drizzle and light rain continuing through much of the day. This will greatly hamper the build up of instability in the low levels and certainly help maintain the strong cap aloft. Incoming short wave aimed at central and N TX early this afternoon will help to bring additional lift across the region, but think the cap will hold south of I-10. For areas north of I-10 the cap does weaken and convection allowing models indicate strong to possibly severe thunderstorms over N TX building S to SSW into the northern sections of SE TX in the 200-700pm time period. This threat area would be mainly north of a line from College Station to Huntsville to Lake Livingston. Main threats would be large hail and a couple of damaging wind gusts. Think this is a very conditional risk and an isolated threat.

For areas south of the line mentioned above mainly light showers streaming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico and possibly an isolated thunderstorm will be possible.

Thursday:
Surface cool front will move southward across TX tonight into Thursday with likely the development of a few showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Meso scale models do not show much along the boundary on Thursday, but with somewhat favorable upper level flow aloft and good moisture in place can’t rule out some development…but we will still have capping aloft to contend with.

Friday-Saturday:
Front should progress to the coast or into the nearshore waters Friday into Saturday. With the main upper trough still lingering over the SW US/ N MX, expect a fair amount of mid and high level moisture to pour NE across the TX coastal plains while at the surface low level dry air mass pushes southward. May need to up rain chances on Friday especially if a couple of disturbances run across the area, but mid level based precipitation may have a difficult time reaching the ground depending on how much dry air moves in at the surface.

[DoctorMu]

Could be wrong. This system has Bust written all over it. The energy is swinging north like a familiar Spring Texas rough scenario.


I'll be out of town this weekend. I almost hate to miss a really nice Sat and Sunday. Here's hoping to avoid use of the sprinkler system Friday!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FALLING INTO THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER WESTERN TEXAS PLACES
EASTERN TEXAS WITHIN A DOWNSTREAM WAA AIR MASS. LOWER 70F DEW
POINTS ADVECTING UP INTO THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA...WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DISTURBANCE RIDING INTO THE VALLEY PLACING
THE AREA UNDER AN INCREASED RISK OF EXPERIENCING LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING PRECIPITATION. SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW HAS
LEFT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION CAPPED. THANKS TO OUR FRIENDS UP
AT TAMU FOR THE COURTESY BALLOON LAUNCH/SOUNDING...A 7-8H WARM
NOSE CERTAINLY EXISTS BUT...IF THE SHORTWAVE CAN INITIATE SOME
LIFT...PARCELS WOULD BE ENTERING NEAR DRY ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. BEGINNING TO SEE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BLOSSOM UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...ISOLATED THUNDER (MAYBE ELEVATED?)
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE THE BEST MID-UPPER
DYNAMICS OF LLJ/DIFFULENCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. OVERCAST...WITH
AREAS OF SOUTHERN FA FOG (OCCASIONALLY LOCALLY DENSE)...WILL BE
THE MAINSTAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A NORTHEASTERN
LIFTING/SHEARING SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX EARLY
TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE A DIFFUSE FROPA THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PASS
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW EVENING...LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST GULF
WINDS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR EITHER MIST/DRIZZLE...A
PASSING LIGHT SHOWER...OR MORE (FURTHER INTERIOR) PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL AGAIN BE IN THURSDAY`S AFTERNOON FORECAST.
SOUTHERN COUNTY RAIN CHANCES STAY ALIVE FRIDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVERRUN NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...POSSIBLY GENERATING A
LOW QPF-PRODUCING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIGHT RAIN SCENARIO. THICK
OVERCAST WILL PROVIDE OVERNIGHT VERY MILD UPPER 60 MINIMUM TEMPS...
POST-FROPA MIDDLE 40S (INLAND) TO MID 50S (COAST) BY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTERNOONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S TOMORROW
...MEAN MIDDLE 70S FRIDAY.

AS A LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHEARS OUT OVER THE WEEKEND
...REGIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL FORTIFY A MUCH DRIER
PATTERN. TRANSITORY 5H RIDGING PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUILDS CONFIDENCE THAT SE TX WILL BE IN A
MOSTLY CLEAR/NO RAINFALL SITUATION FROM SATURDAY ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AT THIS TIME. A TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE FORECAST WITH SUBSEQUENT
DAYS WARMING FROM THE WEEKEND`S MID TO UPPER 70S INTO THE LOWER
80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND...EAST INTO LOUISIANA BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFFORDING RETURN FLOW. WE WILL GET CLIPPED BY A CONTINENTAL
BASED DRY AND COLD AIR MASS SATURDAY THAT WILL MOST BE FELT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NON-METRO/COASTAL MINIMUM TEMP READINGS WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S...LOWER 50S AROUND THE CITY/MIDDLE 50S AT COAST.
ALL AND ALL...QUITE THE 180 DEGREE TURNAROUND FROM TODAY AND
TOMORROW`S MUCKY AND WET CONDITIONS VERSUS THAT OF THE FIRST
WEEKEND IN APRIL`S (FORECAST) PRISTINE WEATHER. 31

[DoctorMu]

Largest lift still remains off to the north and northeast for tomorrows storm event. I suspect the added cloud cover that has been so present today will only help to limit things tomorrow. One thing that is interesting though is how much moisture is present out there, been a pretty steady stream of mist/ light rain for much of the day.

Looks like you nailed it for CLL.

[unome]

the slow, steady drizzle is the best way to get the water to where it's needed - I love days like this

sunshine just around the corner !

[BlueJay]

March 2016 was wonderful! I super enjoyed the end of winter and beginning of spring that this month brings. Now, on to April 2016!!