March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

[jasons2k]

The front has moved back north of me and sun is peeking out - it's starting to feel pretty muggy outside.

You can really see the main cold front barreling down on the visible satellite loops, too.

[srainhoutx]

the Updated SPC Outlook now includes a Hatched area for large and possibly damaging Hail particularly across potions of S Central, Central and the Western zones of SE Texas. IF the cap erodes as expected this afternoon, that damaging hail potential may shift East toward Louisiana.

[DoctorMu]

Some excitement ahead for Louisiana. This event looks more like a bust for HGX and CLL area if the cap holds. Big wind shift ahead... The recent rains preclude fire danger, so we have that going for us.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181857Z - 182100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...AS WELL AS
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...IS MAINTAINING HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. AND INSOLATION BENEATH WARM/CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OFF THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
RIVER /ABOUT 75 MI WSW OF DEL RIO/...BUT INHIBITION OTHERWISE
REMAINS STRONG FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW...IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIVER TO PROPAGATE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND CROSS THE RIVER INTO SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

IT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...AND AT LEAST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR/WEISS.. 03/18/2016


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

[unome]

nasty looking thing popped up n/e of downtown

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-24

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afo ... 1603182202
625
WWUS84 KHGX 182202
SPSHGX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
502 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TXZ200-213-182245-
LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-
502 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 501 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER EAST LITTLE YORK / HOMESTEAD...OR NEAR NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE.
THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN...HUMBLE...BARRETT...ALDINE...HIGHLANDS...NEAR
NORTHSIDE HOUSTON...EASTERN NORTHSIDE / NORTHLINE...CLOVERLEAF...
CHANNELVIEW...GREATER FIFTH WARD...GREATER GREENSPOINT...KINGWOOD...
CROSBY...SHELDON...EAST LITTLE YORK / HOMESTEAD...EAST HOUSTON...KASHMERE
GARDENS...EL DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE...EASTEX / JENSEN AREA AND
SETTEGAST.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2980 9497 2979 9536 2992 9540 3007 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 252DEG 4KT 2986 9529

$$

HUFFMAN

[BlueJay]

WE are currently clear, beautiful blue sky, 81F and sunny. What a difference a few miles makes!

[houstonia]

Thunder and rain in Sharpstown. We seem to be on the west side of the mass. Glad I didn't have to work downtown today!!

[ticka1]

storms heading to east side of town

[unome]

don't need the hail, but could have used some rain to get rid of the pollen

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-HHC-1-24

[stonewall]

Just received a 5 minute hail storm near Hobby Airport. The hail was mostly
pea size and some quarter size hail was mixed in. The roads were briefly covered
with hail.

[Texaspirate11]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 18 at 6:44PM CDT until March 18 at 7:30PM CDT by NWS Houston - GalvestonTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 643 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH PARK... OR NEAR MACGREGOR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PASADENA...PEARLAND...NORTHERN FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK... ALVIN...SOUTH HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...NORTHWESTERN SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...MANVEL...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...ASTRODOME AREA...CLEAR LAKE...GREATER FIFTH WARD...NEARTOWN / MONTROSE AND GREATER HOBBY AREA. HAIL...1.00IN WIND...60MPHFOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE`S LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.Brazoria; Fort Bend; Galveston; Harris

[DoctorMu]

03182016 mcd0237.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...THE TEXAS EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AND ADJACENT
RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181857Z - 182100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW UP THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...AND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...AS WELL AS
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...IS MAINTAINING HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. AND INSOLATION BENEATH WARM/CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED OFF THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE
RIVER /ABOUT 75 MI WSW OF DEL RIO/...BUT INHIBITION OTHERWISE
REMAINS STRONG FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE
GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW...IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR CONVECTION WEST OF THE RIVER TO PROPAGATE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND CROSS THE RIVER INTO SOUTH TEXAS. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS MAY NOT BE UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH...AMONG OTHER MODEL OUTPUT...HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE STORM INITIATION COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY AS EARLY AS 20-21Z.

IT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION TO ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...AND AT LEAST LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..KERR/WEISS.. 03/18/2016


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

That meso cluster is hanging together. May move towards Victoria. Small, severe storm still popping near Sugarland.

[Kludge]

Wow.

Big-time bust.

[unome]

OPEN ! https://twitter.com/TxDOT/status/710992312185151488

open / closed / open / closed - how confusing, glad we don't need to drive over that way...

[wxman57]

Nothing for me, yesterday. Barely enough rain to wet the ground. Heavy storms missed me on all sides.

[Texaspirate11]

Nothing for me, yesterday. Barely enough rain to wet the ground. Heavy storms missed me on all sides.

Only clouds that teased down here by the Bay.

[Katdaddy]

Its a little chilly out there today. I am sure Wxman57 is in hibernation mode. The upper 80s and humidity was very nice in FLA last week and get home just in time for the last few days of Winter with weather to go with the days.

Red Flag Warning for elevated fire risk due to gusty N and NW winds with low humidity this afternoon. Sunny and breezy this with highs in the low 60s. Thunderstorm chances to return to SE TX mid-week with a severe weather threat for NE TX, SE OK, W AR, and SW MO. This area will become more refined over the next few days.

[DoctorMu]

Impressive advection into CLL and HGX.

Gusty northerly winds 20-35 mph here with gorgeous blue skies and temps in the 50s. DP in the upper 20s with 29% RH. I'd love to bottle this up for most of the year. A/C and water off and utility bill low. The red oaks and grass though are still about 3 weeks ahead of schedule. Live oak showing robust growth. Couldn't be better. Am threatening to plant another tree - possibly Chinquapin Oak.

Frost/freeze in the Hill Country. Mid to upper 30s tonight from CLL to Conroe. Conroe may see some light frost on the ground in the wee hours.

[srainhoutx]

35F at the house this morning and 31F in Conroe and Lufkin. Brrr...

[jasons2k]

Looks like another example of the NWS not issuing any freeze or frost advisories for the affected areas so late in the season...