January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[DoctorMu]

Another frosty morning in NW Harris County with frost all the way down to the grassy surfaces and car tops this morning. Our next weather maker locally is organizing along the West Coast and will bring a chance of showers and storms mid week mainly across the Eastern half of Texas before wrapping up and becoming the Major Weather Headline Maker across the Mid Atlantic and the North East United States as a Nor'easter with potentially very heavy snowfall across portions of the Carolina's, Virginia, Washington DC and further up the 1-95 Corridor into New York City and Boston.

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Attention next weekend turns back to our Region for the potential of a significant widespread Winter type storm with a potent upper level disturbance and a possible Coastal Low organizing during the late weekend/early on the January 25-27 timeframe. That storm system is still a week out, but the various computer schemes and ensembles are in somewhat good agreement, so we will monitor to see what develops this week out West and heads our way later in the coming Weekend. We will see.

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I see the weekly futurescape winter porn is up.

We gotta roll doubles sixes one time!


Boring but a beautiful day with a frosty am, and day where clothes other than shorts and a t-shirt can be worn in comfort without sweating buckets, swatting insects, and the A/C is off... keeping those tax enhancing utility bills in CLL down.

[Katdaddy]

Temps mostly in the 40s this morning. It was colder yesterday morning with frost in the yard. Increasing moisture begins today ahead of the next cool front and disturbance. Low to moderate shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday afternoon before clearing skies arrive leading to a mostly sunny weekend.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors in Louisiana particularly Thursday evening into early Friday, the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms with damaging winds being the primary threat, but an isolated tornado or two may not be out of the question. Both the surface low and the 500mb low will be the storm system that is expected to bring the Mid Atlantic and the North East the big Nor'easter as it wraps up into a Major snowstorm Friday into the weekend. Some locations from the Mountains of North Carolina through Virginia, Maryland, Washington DC, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City up to Boston could be measuring snowfall by the feet with Blizzard conditions likely. Those with air travel plans beginning Thursday throughout the weekend expect significant delays and likely cancellations as this Major Weather Headline Storm is expect to be a High Impact Event along the East Coast.

[Cromagnum]

7 day forecast has lows in the upper 40s / lower 50s pretty much all week. Are we pretty much just going to skip winter too this year and just roll fall into spring? Most of my trees still have at least half of their leaves on them.

[nuby3]

7 day forecast has lows in the upper 40s / lower 50s pretty much all week. Are we pretty much just going to skip winter too this year and just roll fall into spring? Most of my trees still have at least half of their leaves on them.

I was noticing yesterday how incredible it is that the greens at the country club I work at haven't gone completely dormant yet

[srainhoutx]

Forecaster Paul Kocin provides some interesting comparisons to big East Coast Snowstorms of the past in his morning Extended Outlook Update:


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016 - 12Z TUE JAN 26 2016

HIGHLIGHTS...

LETS CUT TO THE CHASE. THE MAIN EVENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY/DAYS 3 TO 5. THERE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL ENSEMBLES.
COMPARING THE OPERATIONAL RUNS TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DOES INDICATE
SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARE SMALL IN THE LARGE SCALE BUT CRUCIAL TO
THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL OCCUR AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN
THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES...BECOMES MORE VERTICAL AND THEN CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE STORM WILL LIKELY SLOW IN ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AS IT
MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THEN WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OR ANOTHER TRIPLE POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. THE 00Z ECMWF SUGGESTS BOTH SCENARIOS. IN EITHER
EVEN...THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM IS IMPORTANT TO AFFECT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ANY ONE AREA. THIS WILL BE AN IMPORTANT TREND
TO FOLLOW AS THE MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS START COMING IN.

IN ADDITION...ANY TRENDS EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH WILL IMPACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW AS
WELL AS THE ISSUES OF MIXING/CHANGEOVER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAVE BEEN SUBTLE NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS WITH THIS
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO BE ASSESSED WHEN THE MORNING MODELS
ARRIVE. THERE HAVEN'T BEEN LARGE CHANGES WITH THE OVERNIGHT CYCLE.

IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RUNS. IN PARTICULAR THE 06Z
GFS TRENDED FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS RESULTING IN LOWER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS DUE TO LOWER SNOWFALL DURATION. THE 00Z UKMET IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS BUT THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
MUCH MORE PROGESSIVE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES. AS A RESULT...LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE NAEFS MEAN
IS FASTER THAN THE GFS MEAN DUE TO THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
THE HEAVIEST SNOW BETWEEN THE ISSUES WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE AND
THE SOUTHERN MIX/CHANGEOVER IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED TO RUN FROM
NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

TO PUT THIS SYSTEM IN CONTEXT...THE POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
DISTRIBUTION HAS SIMILARITIES TO SEVERAL MAJOR EAST COAST STORMS
IN RECENT PAST INCLUDING THE 5-6 FEBRUARY 2010 SNOWSTORM/THE
JANUARY 1996 BLIZZARD OF 1996 AND THE PRESIDENTS DAY OF FEBRUARY
2003. JANUARY 1996 IS LIKELY TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY BUT ONLY
TIME WILL TELL. THE MECHANISMS COMING TOGETHER FOR A MAJOR
SNOWFALL ARE TEXTBOOK.

IN THE WEST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE ALONG THE COAST DAY 3 INTO
DAY 4...WITH THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIPITATION EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT EXPECTED.

CONFIDENCE...

THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT THIS FAR OUT IN ADVANCE BUT THAT
ALSO SUGGEST THAT SMALL CHANGES CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
IMPACT. THERE IS STILL 3 TO 4 DAYS FROM THE EVENT AND MANY MODEL
SOLUTIONS TO COME. THERE HAS BEEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY RELATIVE
TO AVERAGE AND PERHAPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE
FORECASTS PRIOR TO 5-6 FEBRUARY 2003...WHICH WAS FORECAST AS MUCH
AS 8 DAYS IN ADVANCE. OTHER STORMS HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS
PREDICTABLE. THIS MAY BE ONE CASE WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF
PREDICTABILITY BUT WE SHALL SEE.

KOCIN

[wxman57]

7 day forecast has lows in the upper 40s / lower 50s pretty much all week. Are we pretty much just going to skip winter too this year and just roll fall into spring? Most of my trees still have at least half of their leaves on them.

I see lows close to 40 and highs near 50 for Friday & Saturday. That's pretty cold, to me. But I do not see any significant freezes for most of Houston through the end of the month. February has the potential to produce some frozen precip down here, but we need colder air to move south out of Canada for that to happen. No signs of that yet.

[BiggieSmalls]

My prediction is this winter ends with 0 "interesting" winter weather, even in DFW

[GBinGrimes]

The "stealth" winter that is making us think that perhaps the REAL winter will not occur is still lurking somewhere up north. We have the latter half of January, all of February and the ever crazy March still before us. Having lived in this part of Texas my entire life, my bet is that we'll get at least a decent mid to upper 20's freeze before the fullness of spring is upon us. Mentioning the greens that have yet to go dormant, I've got some crazy native grasses and some family member of Bermuda grass in parts of my pasture that are lush green and have required mowing all winter, at least on the few days it's been dry enough to not dig ruts with the tractor.

Nuby3...I hope you don't work at Wedgewood! It's about to close.

[Cromagnum]

Yes, I'm having issues with my Bermuda as well. Not cold enough to make it go dormant, but it has slowed down some. Still lush green, but it has been too wet on days that I'm off to actually mow it. At least the barricade I put down for pre-emergent is keeping 90% of the weeds at bay.

[Katdaddy]

Increasing rain chances with a few thunderstorms Thursday for SE TX. Already seeing showers mainly offshore this morning. A severe weather event looks to unfold E of the Houston-Galveston areas along the Sabine River and across LA and MS where the SPC now has a slight risk area. Expect breezy and much cooler temps and sun behind the cold front Thursday. The Houston-Galveston NWS mentions many areas could see freezing temps both Friday and Saturday mornings. Low rain chances return next Monday. The national weather story this weekend will be the potentially significant snow storm in the NE US. Models continue to advertise but still several days out. I would remain weather aware up there and not listen to the hype. Instead listen the NWS for details.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Progressive flow aloft resulting in rapid translation of upper level storm systems across SE TX.

Overall pattern since late December will continue with no overly cold air unleashing into the US and meager moisture return ahead of storm systems in the fast flow aloft. A weak cool front has crossed the area this morning, but cold air advection is very weak and the front will stall over the lower TX coast by early afternoon and begin to return northward this evening in response to the next upper level disturbance approaching from the NW. Moisture increases overnight, but best moisture will be confined to deep east TX and Louisiana on Thursday. This upper level system will deepen as it moves across the southern US and will likely become a major weather player along the US east coast late this week and this weekend. Expect some degree of shower development along and ahead of the frontal boundary on Thursday especially east of I-45 where moisture levels will be the greatest. Overall instability is lacking so expecting mostly showers with possibly an isolated thunderstorm.

As the storm system deepens to our east a strong cold front will move across the area with strong NW winds in the wake of the system. Good cold air advection and possible low level clouds on Friday will likely keep much of the area in the 40’s for highs.

Skies clear late Friday and winds weaken allowing for good radiational cooling conditions. Low dewpoints point toward a light freeze over a large part of the region Saturday morning and the latest GFS forecast for IAH is showing a low of 30…so outlying rural locations could certainly fall into the upper 20’s. Continued cold on Saturday with highs only in the low to mid 50’s under full sun.

Next storm system moves in quickly from the west late Sunday into Monday with rapid return of onshore flow on Sunday and a good warm up well into the 60’s. Rain chances return on Monday, but again moisture is looking slim and mainly focused toward areas east of TX.

[srainhoutx]

There is been a lot of chatter on social media feeds regarding the ECMWF of late and I thought it was noteworthy to at least mention the fact that even the supposed King of computer models is often very unreliable. Beside the very chilly weather for our Region expected in the wake of the developing Nor'easter, it looks like a fairly significant longwave trough will be centered from the Great Lakes well SW into Mexico early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1201 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 23 2016 - 12Z WED JAN 27 2016

PATTERN OVERVIEW...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE VARIOUS STREAMS
FOR AT LEAST BRIEF PORTIONS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD RESULTING
IN ABOVE AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY BEFORE THE SPREAD ULTIMATELY INCREASES...WITH THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO RIDGES ALONG THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH A MEAN TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PLAINS.
THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN
PERIODICALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

MODEL CHOICES AND CONFIDENCE...

CHOICES ARE LARGELY A RESULT OF THOSE SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN
THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE THE
GREATEST SUPPORT FROM OTHER SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLES. OF
THESE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN THE
STEADIEST DESPITE IRONING OUT IMPORTANT SYSTEM DETAILS...WITH THE
GFS A CLOSE SECOND AND THE ECMWF THE WORST. IN FACT...THE ECMWF IS
SO FAR FROM ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
IN 4 DISTINCT AREAS BEGINNING SATURDAY THAT IT WAS NOT USED AT ALL
IN THE BLENDING PROCESS. INSTEAD...ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF THE 18Z GFS
WAS BLENDED WITH ABOUT 30 PERCENT EACH 18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. MULTI-DAY TRENDS ALSO SHOW A SLIGHT SLOWING AND
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY...WITH IT BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THE BRUNT
OF THE EAST COAST WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION POSSIBLY UP TO ABOUT NEW YORK AND
SLIGHTLY LESS PROBABLE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL REACH INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND. IF THE 12Z ECMWF WERE TO BE CORRECT...AN EVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PATH RESULTING IN PERHAPS VERY LITTLE OR NO SNOW FOR
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS
PRESENTLY NOT PREFERRED. THE ADVANTAGE OF THE CURRENT BLEND IS
THAT IT IS VERY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY WHICH IS GOOD PLACE TO BE AT
THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE FORECAST WITH SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES
LIKELY UP THROUGH THE EVENT AS THE TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST NOW
BECOMES BETTER SAMPLED BY THE DATA NETWORK. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS ALSO SERVE WELL FOR THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WHICH
SHOW MORE OF A MEAN RIDGE VERSUS THE ECMWF. ALSO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHAT REACHES THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL REACH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST WITH A RETURN OF MORE
PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS.

MAIN IMPACTS...

MORE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS WILL
AFFECT THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT LIKELY. BY SATURDAY ALSO...THE WINTER STORM ALONG THE
EAST COAST SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARD
NEW YORK WITH HUGE IMPACTS TO COMMERCE...TRAVEL...AND POSSIBLY
LIFE AND PROPERTY. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE
WATCHES/WARNINGS/STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION IN YOUR
AREA.

JAMES

Climate Prediction Center Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs centered on January 31st:

[ticka1]

Looks like the East Coast is going to get their snow. All at once with one storm.

[snowman65]

We're on to spring.......We're on to spring...(Bill Bellichek) lol

[wxman57]

No winter weather for Houston over the next couple of weeks. It's looking less likely that we'll see any winter precip in the Houston area this year.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs take us out to the end of the month. It would be nice to see some precipitation return to the Lone Star State as we begin February. I know folks to our West are complaining that it has been dry of late. We typically get a dry spell during January of strong El Nino years to only see precipitation return in February particularly across the Mountains of New Mexico and West/S Central Texas. I am ready for some sunny days with temperatures in the low 70's. Just need to get past mid February and the typical gloomy/dreary/chilly weather. I'm already cold thinking about those freezing temperatures forecast for Friday and Saturday mornings.

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[ticka1]

At least its wet - looks like I might be able to get my garden in around mid or later March. Need to keep the moisture around for good gardens this spring.

[Katdaddy]

Deepening low pressure over Central TX and associated front will push E of TX later today. SE TX will be on the western edge of a potentially significant severe weather event. A large portion of SE TX has been placed in a marginal risk area while areas from Galveston Bay to NE Houston are in a slight risk area. An enhanced risk area has been issued from the Sabine River eastward across the Central Gulf Coast. People in Central and S LA, Central and S MS, and SW AL need to remain weather aware today. Across SE TX this morning a few isolated cells have developed NE of Houston. In addition Dense Fog Advisories have been issued until 9AM followed by Wind Advisories this afternoon behind the cold front. Sunny skies Friday through Sunday however widespread freezing temps will be likely Saturday morning.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Impressive storm system will intensify today and track eastward across the southern plains and then become a major blizzard for the US east coast this weekend.

Main change from yesterday it to bring a slight chance of severe thunderstorms into Chambers, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties for this afternoon. Surface warm front moving inland from the Gulf of Mexico this morning with extensive fog and low visibilities along and north of this boundary. Water vapor loop shows impressive short wave tracking through NW TX and already development of strong to severe thunderstorms over both southern OK and E TX/W LA in favorable regions of forced ascent. Strong forcing will lead to rapid surface low pressure development today over E TX into the mid south and this will intensify wind fields over the region. While parameters are looking better than yesterday for a few severe storms today over the eastern sections of SE TX, the region will lie on the western edge of a much more significant severe weather outbreak aimed at the southern US tonight into Friday. Think our eastern counties are borderline with the threat…but cannot rule our large hail or a damaging wind gust for any areas that fall within the warm sector this afternoon.

Bigger story will likely be the onset of strong cold air advection and windy conditions by this evening as the surface low pressure deepens to our east dragging a cold Canadian air mass southward into the region. Front should cross the area late this afternoon with rapidly falling temperatures and strong NW winds. Area-wide wind advisory will be in effect tonight with gusts of 30-35mph frequent and 40-45mph possible. Temperatures falling into the 30’s and 40’s will result in wind chills into the 20’s for nearly all areas by Friday morning.

This same system will track ENE and deepen even further off the US mid-Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday with a major blizzard expected to impact the Washington and Baltimore areas. This event could be within the top 10 biggest snow storms for Washington deepening on exactly where the meso scale banding establishes. Large scale significant impacts to travel are likely from Friday morning through the entire weekend for much of the nation east of the Mississippi River.

Cold air will funnel southward on the backside of the US east coast blizzard with cold high pressure building overhead late Friday into early Saturday. Clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints continue to point toward at least a light freeze over much of the area Saturday morning.