January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

[BigThicket]

Canadian whipping GFS butt and the Canadian cold on cold with precip...GFS is becoming obsolete

While the scoring of the GFS does lack against the ECMWF beyond 5 days, the CMC scores even lower than the GFS. That is why you see a blend of all the guidance in the Extended Range by the Weather Prediction Center, and most of the heavier weighting is given to the ensembles when attempting to resolve the various features such as strength of shortwaves and the amplification or lack there of in the various troughs/ridges and upstream pattern over the Pacific and to the N in the Fall and Winter months. For example the operational Euro was bone dry regarding the light precipitation we are experiencing this morning. The forecaster uses all the tools available to them when attempting to issue a sensible weather forecast, and even then those available 'tools' may well be incorrect in the ground truth weather impacts beyond 6 to 24 hours.

Regarding what we may see the first half of January, the various computer schemes are suggesting a very fast flow across the Southern tier of the United States as we would expect in an El Nino pattern. The sub tropical jet continues to be very noisy with storm systems arriving across our Region every 3 to 4 days with varying strength. The ensembles are beginning to converge on a couple of potential significant storms in the extended range. Keep an eye on the January 7th/8th timeframe and around the 13th/14th for yet another strong storm. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a +PNA/-AO/-EPO/- to neutral WPO as well as a wet phase of the MJO (Phase7/8) which tends to suggest a colder weather pattern along and East of the Continental Divide and a continued unsettles pattern from California across the Desert SW into Northern Mexico and Texas as well as the Dixie States along and near the Northern/NE Gulf Coast into Florida.

01012016 00Z Euro GFS Compare test8.gif

12312015 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

01012016 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif

01012016 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

Just seems that the Canadianis dealing with the warm evolving to cold. Just seems to have the upper hand with our current situation. GFS seems to be inconsistent.

[DoctorMu]

Weather (and climate) forecasting is really no different, for the most part, than any other area of science. You look for consensus, robustness of predictions, and the mechanisms and predictable patterns (fractals if you will) underlying the models and predictions. Which models follow mechanistic data? How do you weight the models, and use ensembles? ...which is as much Hedge Fund strategies as science. In large, complex, interactive systems predicting general trends over larger areas is more successful that micro-predictions in forecasting.

Local knowledge is important in integrating a reasonable forecast. For example, in the summer (after June 15) it's rare that the sea breeze moves NW of Navasota to College Station. Until the last 2 summers, the renegade cold front virtually never descended past Hearne, nor does ice and snow in the winter. In the early Spring the cap is usually (not always) protective against tornados - the locals joke about the "Aggie Dome." We are subject to training, particularly with an active subtropical jet in the Fall.

Humans like simple, linear thinking. Nature is of course alinear and chaotic...and thus unpredictable, which is half the fun.

Anything beyond 5-7 days remains wishcasting. An awful lot of dynamic variables, but can portray possibilities based upon mechanisms and observations - ex. building cold in Siberia, northern Canada, coupled with a buckling jet stream, general and historical effects of El Nino, Pacific current and temp oscillations.

[BigThicket]

I disagree...I think the industries best can have a pretty good handle on things 10 days out...not perfect by any means but certainly not wish casting, no disrespect JMO. Another run...Euro and Canadian look alike for mid Jan and the US model is lost.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon updated Day11+ Analogs keep the cold and unsettled pattern going well into mid January.

The attachment 814analog.off (2).gif is no longer available

The attachment 814analog.temp (2).gif is no longer available

The attachment 814analog.prcp (1).gif is no longer available

The Experimental Week 3 and 4 Outlook suggests more of the same.

Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 01 2016

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 16 2016-Fri Jan 29 2016

A complicated short term climate scenario is expected to continue to evolve over the next few weeks resulting in a challenging Week 3-4 outlook. Along with background strong El Nino conditions, a robust and coherent MJO continues to propagate eastward across the Tropics. The enhanced convective phase of this MJO is currently centered across the west central Pacific and is now constructively interfering with the low frequency El Nino base state. In addition to these factors, the AO is forecast by some of the model guidance to become negative (for a substantial period) for the first time this late autumn and winter during the upcoming preceding two week period. This forecast of the AO is consistent with the evolution of the ongoing MJO event and is likely to persist into the Week 3-4 outlook period and favors anomalous troughing across areas of eastern North America especially during Week-3. The above noted pattern change across the east (forecast to occur beginning in the Week-2 period) represents a major change from what has been observed on average to date this winter.

Dynamical model guidance is in generally good agreement among the CFS, ECMWF and JMA solutions across the Pacific Ocean and western North America and depicts positive height departures across the northwest Pacific Ocean, anomalous troughing west of Alaska southeastward to just of the coast of the western CONUS and anomalous ridging over eastern Alaska and western Canada. Across the eastern CONUS, substantial negative height departures are forecast by the CFS and ECMWF over the Southeast and mid Atlantic. In this area, the JMA solution diverges significantly from the other models and indicates considerably less troughing and even positive height departures across eastern Canada and parts of the northern CONUS. This solution was considered an outlier and discounted due to its inconsistency with the previously described MJO and AO evolution and their associated typical impacts.

The Week 3-4 outlook this week was prepared with considerations from background El Nino conditions, lagged impacts associated with the ongoing MJO, prospects for a negative AO phase continuing into the outlook period and available statistical and dynamical model guidance.

The temperature outlook depicts below normal temperatures favored for an area stretching from the central and southern High Plains eastward across the central and lower Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities are indicated across the Southeast where lagged impacts of the MJO, negative AO and dynamical model guidance are in the best agreement. Above normal temperatures are more likely along the West coast of the CONUS at modest probabilities and this area extends northward to include Alaska. Areas within this highlighted region are based, to varying degrees, on local SSTs, El Nino and MJO impacts and statistical and dynamical model guidance. Background El Nino conditions may temper cold temperatures across parts of the northern CONUS so EC or equal chances is forecast in this region.

For precipitation, there are elevated odds for above-median precipitation for much of the West coast, especially north-central California eastward across the Southwest to parts of the southern High Plains and along the Gulf coast, Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The highest probabilities extend across the bottom half of the Florida Peninsula. Below median precipitation is highlighted from the northern Rockies eastward across the northern Plains and portions of the Great Lakes southward to include parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. The highlighted areas are primarily based on statistical forecast guidance that incorporates information on ENSO, MJO and trends with adjustments made to some areas (primarily the central west coast) by dynamical model guidance. In the aforementioned region, the model guidance was consistent in indicating above median precipitation during the outlook period.

Above average temperatures and below median precipitation is forecast for Hawaii during the period.

[BigThicket]

Canadian gets nasty in days 1-15...Canadian cold then the Euro again cold but now colder then Canadian 11-16???? It's obvious the warming in the attic leading to blocking and BAMM! My question is, because I can only understand so much, is how cold do we get? I mean it looks pretty dang cold and still above average precip.

[Katdaddy]

Light rain moving across the Upper TX Coast this evening.

[jeff]

Canadian gets nasty in days 1-15...Canadian cold then the Euro again cold but now colder then Canadian 11-16???? It's obvious the warming in the attic leading to blocking and BAMM! My question is, because I can only understand so much, is how cold do we get? I mean it looks pretty dang cold and still above average precip.

I would certainly believe near to above average precipitation over the next few weeks. As for all this talk about cold...well it happens every year about this time. Folks look at 300-384hr model guidance like it is the next 24 hours. While some of the large scale pattern indicators show colder air...that is compared to normal in a lot of the departures and a chance that any sustained cold is aimed more at the east coast. By Texas standards it was cold today...with many stuck in the 40's, but COLD for some people is a high of 30 and ice/snow...and in the southern parts of TX that is a rare combination. It can certainly happen and El Nino winters support the wetter part of that pattern, but a lot of things have to come together to get the cold down here with the precip. We saw this several times last year with 1050mb+ highs diving down the front range with expected precip. In the end the actual air temperatures ended up in the upper 20's and low 30's (not the 10's that were expected 10 days out) and a couple of minor ice events (very borderline).

[BigThicket]

Thanks for the clarity Jeff! I love winter but big supercell thunder boomers and hurricanes are my real candy. I grew up in North Texas and watch a tornado come across the parking lot of my school and of course a few others, but I got to experience some big winter storms as well. Then got relocated to the coast...first year hear I got to take in hurricane Bonnie. I understand severe weather can be devastating as we all just saw in and around the Dallas area after Christmas, but is is awe inspiring nonetheless. I love looking at the models and trying to understand them...great mind benders! Lol

[Texaspirate11]

How many more days until summer?
I've had enough, thank you

[srainhoutx]

Another chilly day ahead with light rain chances confined to the Coastal tier of Counties with another shortwave embedded in the noisy sub tropical jet arriving tonight into early Sunday. Looks like we will finally see some sunshine Monday into Tuesday before clouds increase Tuesday evening ahead of a stronger disturbance Wednesday into early Thursday. The mid week storm system may produce a round of heavy rainfall with some thunder as a coastal wave organizes, but lack of instability suggest severe storms are unlikely at this time.

A brief break appears possible late week with moderating temperatures back to normal or possibly into the 60's before yet another strong storm system approaches from the West late next weekend. Chilly and unsettled pattern looks possible in the longer range as a pesky trough remains overhead. Still no sign of any truly Cold Arctic air intrusion into North America into the longer range.

[wxman57]

Having no freezes in Houston is rare, but not unheard of. The Winter of 1930-1931, Houston Weather Bureau did not record any freezing temperature that time! It came close. 1930-1931 was an El Nino.

Sometimes, first freezing temperature is not seen as late as January or even in March like in 1931-1932 Winter. It snowed in March 10-11, 1932.

I don't believe the "official" reporting station was up at IAH back in 1930-31. It was probably closer to downtown Houston. The temperature north of downtown was likely a few degrees colder.

GFS & Euro indicate a few mid to upper 30s at IAH over the next 2 weeks, but no freeze.

[snowman65]

How reliable is pivotalweather.com? Seems to be quite alot of flip flopping on the daily model runs.

[srainhoutx]

How reliable is pivotalweather.com? Seems to be quite alot of flip flopping on the daily model runs.

There is a lot of flip flopping going on with all the computer guidance including the ECMWF. It's not unusual to see the models struggle beyond the Day 5 range when the pattern is transitioning. Follow the ensembles beyond 5 Days.

[srainhoutx]

Beginning to see the guidance trending toward a favorable pattern for delivering cold weather from Siberia into North America in the medium to longer range. Long gone is the Polar Vortex that was firmly anchored over the North Pole with its swirling lows around the Arctic Circle replaced by rising heights or a bridge of High Pressure, if you will across the Arctic. The teleconnection indices of a +PNA/-AO/-EPO/slightly -WPO as well as all of the guidance indicating a wet phase of the MJO for the Eastern Pacific near mid January suggest a chilly and unsettled pattern should continue.

[Ptarmigan]

Having no freezes in Houston is rare, but not unheard of. The Winter of 1930-1931, Houston Weather Bureau did not record any freezing temperature that time! It came close. 1930-1931 was an El Nino.

Sometimes, first freezing temperature is not seen as late as January or even in March like in 1931-1932 Winter. It snowed in March 10-11, 1932.

I don't believe the "official" reporting station was up at IAH back in 1930-31. It was probably closer to downtown Houston. The temperature north of downtown was likely a few degrees colder.

GFS & Euro indicate a few mid to upper 30s at IAH over the next 2 weeks, but no freeze.

Houston Weather Bureau office was in downtown. That is where weather records were taken.

[BigThicket]

Beginning to see the guidance trending toward a favorable pattern for delivering cold weather from Siberia into North America in the medium to longer range. Long gone is the Polar Vortex that was firmly anchored over the North Pole with its swirling lows around the Arctic Circle replaced by rising heights or a bridge of High Pressure, if you will across the Arctic. The teleconnection indices of a +PNA/-AO/-EPO/slightly -WPO as well as all of the guidance indicating a wet phase of the MJO for the Eastern Pacific near mid January suggest a chilly and unsettled pattern should continue.

I think Bastardi is one this same page he is putting out a free video this afternoon on weather bell.com around 4:30...I think he will be featuring a lot of what you discussed...just FYI if anyone wants to check it out. He has been banging away on Twitter about the flip for Jan Feb Mar...of course he is always a bit Northeast tainted but has been throwing the south into the discussion.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Cold is coming thru March... Now deliver the sleet or snow!

[BigThicket]

Yep...BASTARDI SAY BIG COLD COMMING AS WARMING OVER THE ARTIC BRIDGES COLD ARTIC AIR SOUTH INTO THE UNITED STATES...or that's what I got from his video other than winter is through March. He also said when the Canadian latches onto cold it keeps it and performers extremely well. The Weatherbell model is making excellent progress through this pattern as well. Bastardi has the cold weather bit in his mouth and is going full throttle. Will he be right...guess we are gonna find out! He says the pattern is evolving and nothing to stop it...right or wrong it is fun to track. Gotta be bold to throw it out and make bold statements but his track record and client list speaks for it's self.

[harpman]

Can you post the link?

[BigThicket]

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ary-2-2016

See if that works?