Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray June forecast=18/10/5

[Cycloneye]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2010.pdf

[srainhoutx]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... un2010.pdf

18/10/5...seems to be somewhat of a consensus...

[ticka1]

Now that the season is upon us - the waiting begins to see if all these forecast will be validated.

I'm curious to see if the season will start early or if it will be very slow until late in the season during August/September and October.

My thoughts are that we will have to wait awhile to get our first serious system. Sure we will have model runs for formation and even some invest/blobs develop but it won't ramp up until later. (Wishful thinking huh).

[wxman57]

I'd say we'll see the first hurricane of the season in the Caribbean/Gulf in the next 2 weeks.

[ticka1]

I'd say we'll see the first hurricane of the season in the Caribbean/Gulf in the next 2 weeks.

Wow seriously. You are the professional so I will be watching and waiting.

[perk]

I'd say we'll see the first hurricane of the season in the Caribbean/Gulf in the next 2 weeks.

WOW i will definately get my preparations completed this weekend.

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised to see our first named storm in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

[Paul]

I didnt think they would go that high...wow....

I will say in another 3 weeks we will see some carib developement.....Man, I still need to change the oil in my generator....

[perk]

I didnt think they would go that high...wow....

I will say in another 3 weeks we will see some carib developement.....Man, I still need to change the oil in my generator....

I pulled mine out Monday , cranked it up and put a load on it. I had to adjust the carb a little,after that it ran fine. I'll complete the rest of my preparations this weekend.

[wxman57]

Candles won't keep your refrigerator/freezer, window AC unit, washer/dryer and big screen TV going, though. My 2 generators are ready to go!

[Stormrider]

Candles won't keep your refrigerator/freezer, window AC unit, washer/dryer and big screen TV going, though. My 2 generators are ready to go!

Washing clothes in a 5 gallon bucket outside in the 90 degree heat builds character, and MRE's are rather tasty!

[Paul]

I added a 30amp breaker to my sub panel so I can plug in my generator and regulate loads from the breaker box. Makes life easier with no cords running through out the house. I have 3 window units as well so I am good to go as long as I have plenty of gas.......if we get one this year I might sell my stuff and get a complete home generator set. About 5K but will run everything.

[wxman57]

I added a 30amp breaker to my sub panel so I can plug in my generator and regulate loads from the breaker box. Makes life easier with no cords running through out the house. I have 3 window units as well so I am good to go as long as I have plenty of gas.......if we get one this year I might sell my stuff and get a complete home generator set. About 5K but will run everything.

You installed a power transfer switch, right? Just plugging a generator into your electrical box without such a switch could be quite bad. You'd energize the lines in the neighborhood, possibly killing someone who came into contact with what should be a dead line.

If you did get a transfer switch installed, what was the cost? I was figuring $150-$200 for the hardware and $200-$300 for installation.

[wxman57]

Candles won't keep your refrigerator/freezer, window AC unit, washer/dryer and big screen TV going, though. My 2 generators are ready to go!

How much did you spend to have all the comforts of home for one or two weeks every other decade?



ETA: My office in the Galleria is supplied by underground power, and my gym membership allowed me to shower and shave each morning after the sweaty tossing and turning of the night before so I was looking and smelling good at work.

Won the first generator at a hurricane seminar in Pasadena in 2004. It was the grand prize at the local NWS conference (before they moved to GRB). Got the 2nd one for $799 at Lowe's after 1 week of no power and a generator that ran out of fuel every 1.5 hours. It was worth every penny back then. Hope I never need to use it again.

[wxman57]

Other than the bizarre looking ~hour 360 GFS run JB showed in his video, any reason for your prognostication that we're two weeks or less from a Gulf or Caribbean hurricane?

Quitting time, stayed up late waiting on storms, need a nap, but I will check back in.

There's a 2-3 day window around the 13th when wind shear across the Gulf and NW Caribbean is forecast to be quite low, and thunderstorm activity elevated in the region.

[Paul]

I added a 30amp breaker to my sub panel so I can plug in my generator and regulate loads from the breaker box. Makes life easier with no cords running through out the house. I have 3 window units as well so I am good to go as long as I have plenty of gas.......if we get one this year I might sell my stuff and get a complete home generator set. About 5K but will run everything.

You installed a power transfer switch, right? Just plugging a generator into your electrical box without such a switch could be quite bad. You'd energize the lines in the neighborhood, possibly killing someone who came into contact with what should be a dead line.

If you did get a transfer switch installed, what was the cost? I was figuring $150-$200 for the hardware and $200-$300 for installation.

WXMN57- no its a lot cheaper than that. I had a 30amp breaker in my box for my electic dryer. My dryer is gas so I dont use it. I used the breaker to come off with a 30amp plug for the generator. You are right though you have to remember to shut off the main before you energize the box. If you dont you could fire a centerpointe line man. I taped notes in my box to remind me to kill the main before energizing.....

[Paul]

we are still a few weeks maybe 4 weeks away from something legit in the MDR, IMO......the wait will not seem as long as you think..just need a little time to boil. The ssts are way way above normal......

I fly in from Miami tomorrow....Saturday is in Galveston for my brothers grad from SHS...Sunday is changing oil in both generators...I hope everyone is preparing....now is the time...

[srainhoutx]

There's a 2-3 day window around the 13th when wind shear across the Gulf and NW Caribbean is forecast to be quite low, and thunderstorm activity elevated in the region.

Heading in that direction...

[wxman57]

If there was the remotest chance of a Gulf or NW Caribbean hurricane in the next week, JB would be apoplexic. He sort of finds the enhanced wave activity interesting, and seems to think one of them may come up into the NW Caribbean and Gulf sometime in the future, but he hasn't posted anything.


JB calls a fair number of storms that don't happen, but I can't remember being inside 7 days of a storm that did happen he wasn't bouncing off the walls over.

I agree, Ed. I think that JB is like the Canadian model on steroids when it comes to predicting possible development. I'll just enjoy another hurricane-free weekend off coming up.