December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record
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srainhoutx
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The longer range ECMWF Ensemble mean suggest the potential of a pattern change beginning in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on the next week or so...
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what kind of pattern change?
from the CPC, 3-14 Day Hazards Outlook http://www.cpcpara.ncep.noaa.gov/
3-14 Day Hazards Outlook
Hazards Outlook for Friday December 04 - Tuesday December 15
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST December 01 2015
Synopsis: A frontal system is predicted to stretch from the Northern Plains to the Southwest at the beginning of the period and move eastward, sweeping across the lower 48 states until Sunday. A series of frontal systems are forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest over the 3 to 7 day period into the beginning of week-2, bringing more unsettled weather to coastal parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. High pressure is likely to dominate the Contiguous U.S. for much of the 3 to 7 day period, excluding passage of these fronts. Surface lows are favored to develop over the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska, while a stationary front remains in place across northern mainland Alaska during the 3 to 7 day period.
Hazards
High winds for coastal parts of Oregon and Washington, Sat-Sun, Dec 5-6.
High significant waves for coastal parts of Oregon and Washington, Sat-Sun, Dec 5-6.
Heavy precipitation for western Washington, Sat and Tue, Dec 5 and 8.
Episodes of heavy precipitation for parts of the Northern Rockies, Fri-Wed, Dec 4-9.
Much below normal temperatures across the Brooks Range in Alaska, Fri-Mon, Dec 4-7.
Heavy precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue, Dec 8.
River flooding occurring, likely, or possible over parts of the Central and Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Severe drought in the far western CONUS, northern Rockies, and Puerto Rico.
Detailed Summary
For Friday December 04 - Tuesday December 08: A frontal system is expected to impact much of the northern half of the west coast of the CONUS over the weekend. This storm is expected to bring high winds (40 knots or greater) and high significant waves (24 feet or greater) to coastal parts of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and Sunday.
The aforementioned frontal system is predicted to be followed by a series of frontal systems entering the Pacific Northwest during the 3 to 7 day period into the beginning of week-2. This active weather pattern is anticipated to bring heavy valley rain and heavy mountain snow to parts of western Washington on Saturday, whereas mainly a rain event is expected for Tuesday. This area may receive 3 inches or greater of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period. Additionally, these frontal systems are likely to transport moist air from the East Pacific into the Northern Rockies, bringing episodes of localized heavy valley rain and mountain snow to parts of this area throughout much of this period into the beginning of week-2. This area may receive an inch or greater of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period.
A stationary front is anticipated to develop over northern mainland Alaska at the beginning of the period and remain in place for the 3 to 7 day period. Surface high pressure north of this front may bring cold Arctic air to northern Alaska, favoring much below normal temperatures across the Brooks Range Friday to Monday. Daily temperatures in this area may reach 20 degrees F below normal.
A storm system is forecast to develop over the South Coast of Alaska by next Tuesday. Strong onshore flow associated with this storm may bring heavy rain and snow to parts of the Alaska Panhandle (2 inches or greater of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period).
Precipitation prior to and during the period leads to occurring, likely or possible river flooding over parts of the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
For Wednesday December 09 - Tuesday December 15: The active weather pattern from the 3 to 7 day period is forecast to extend into the beginning of week-2 in the Pacific Northwest. Moist flow from the East Pacific is anticipated to continue the potential for heavy valley rain and mountain snow into Wednesday, December 9 across parts of the Northern Rockies. The 6Z operational GFS is showing significantly higher 24-hour accumulated liquid equivalent totals (2.5 inches or greater) compared to the 0Z operational ECMWF (0.8 inches or greater).
Near to above normal temperatures are favored for the CONUS and Alaska during week-2. Normal to above median precipitation is forecast for the CONUS and Alaska.
Forecaster: Melissa Ou
$$
3-14 Day Hazards Outlook
Hazards Outlook for Friday December 04 - Tuesday December 15
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST December 01 2015
Synopsis: A frontal system is predicted to stretch from the Northern Plains to the Southwest at the beginning of the period and move eastward, sweeping across the lower 48 states until Sunday. A series of frontal systems are forecast to enter the Pacific Northwest over the 3 to 7 day period into the beginning of week-2, bringing more unsettled weather to coastal parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. High pressure is likely to dominate the Contiguous U.S. for much of the 3 to 7 day period, excluding passage of these fronts. Surface lows are favored to develop over the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska, while a stationary front remains in place across northern mainland Alaska during the 3 to 7 day period.
Hazards
High winds for coastal parts of Oregon and Washington, Sat-Sun, Dec 5-6.
High significant waves for coastal parts of Oregon and Washington, Sat-Sun, Dec 5-6.
Heavy precipitation for western Washington, Sat and Tue, Dec 5 and 8.
Episodes of heavy precipitation for parts of the Northern Rockies, Fri-Wed, Dec 4-9.
Much below normal temperatures across the Brooks Range in Alaska, Fri-Mon, Dec 4-7.
Heavy precipitation for parts of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue, Dec 8.
River flooding occurring, likely, or possible over parts of the Central and Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
Severe drought in the far western CONUS, northern Rockies, and Puerto Rico.
Detailed Summary
For Friday December 04 - Tuesday December 08: A frontal system is expected to impact much of the northern half of the west coast of the CONUS over the weekend. This storm is expected to bring high winds (40 knots or greater) and high significant waves (24 feet or greater) to coastal parts of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday and Sunday.
The aforementioned frontal system is predicted to be followed by a series of frontal systems entering the Pacific Northwest during the 3 to 7 day period into the beginning of week-2. This active weather pattern is anticipated to bring heavy valley rain and heavy mountain snow to parts of western Washington on Saturday, whereas mainly a rain event is expected for Tuesday. This area may receive 3 inches or greater of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period. Additionally, these frontal systems are likely to transport moist air from the East Pacific into the Northern Rockies, bringing episodes of localized heavy valley rain and mountain snow to parts of this area throughout much of this period into the beginning of week-2. This area may receive an inch or greater of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period.
A stationary front is anticipated to develop over northern mainland Alaska at the beginning of the period and remain in place for the 3 to 7 day period. Surface high pressure north of this front may bring cold Arctic air to northern Alaska, favoring much below normal temperatures across the Brooks Range Friday to Monday. Daily temperatures in this area may reach 20 degrees F below normal.
A storm system is forecast to develop over the South Coast of Alaska by next Tuesday. Strong onshore flow associated with this storm may bring heavy rain and snow to parts of the Alaska Panhandle (2 inches or greater of liquid equivalent in a 24-hour period).
Precipitation prior to and during the period leads to occurring, likely or possible river flooding over parts of the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley.
For Wednesday December 09 - Tuesday December 15: The active weather pattern from the 3 to 7 day period is forecast to extend into the beginning of week-2 in the Pacific Northwest. Moist flow from the East Pacific is anticipated to continue the potential for heavy valley rain and mountain snow into Wednesday, December 9 across parts of the Northern Rockies. The 6Z operational GFS is showing significantly higher 24-hour accumulated liquid equivalent totals (2.5 inches or greater) compared to the 0Z operational ECMWF (0.8 inches or greater).
Near to above normal temperatures are favored for the CONUS and Alaska during week-2. Normal to above median precipitation is forecast for the CONUS and Alaska.
Forecaster: Melissa Ou
$$
also from CPC, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /index.php
(about this experimental product: http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD_CPC ... tlooks.pdf )
Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Nov 27 2015
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Dec 12 2015-Fri Dec 25 2015
The RMM based MJO index continues to reflect amplitude over the Indian Ocean, but significant eastward propagation of the signal has not been established. The enhanced convective signal over the Indian Ocean appears to be relatively stationary, with other modes, including Kelvin Waves propagating out from the Indian Ocean and Equatorial Rossby Wave activity over the Pacific, causing most of the intraseasonal modulations to the ongoing strong El Nino background state. Therefore, climate anomalies associated with ENSO are the favored contribution from the global tropical pattern considered in this outlook.
There are substantial differences among the dynamical model 500-hPa height anomaly forecasts, with subsequent implications for the forecasted temperature and precipitation patterns. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA all depict large negative height anomalies centered near the Bering Sea and Aleutians, as well as above-normal heights over northeastern North America. The ECMWF forecasts ridging over the northeastern Pacific, with a downstream trough over the south-central CONUS. In contrast, the CFS depicts troughing over the northeastern Pacific, with near to above-normal heights across most of the CONUS.
Consistent with these forecasted height anomalies, the ECMWF-based probabilistic temperature forecast favors below-normal temperatures across much of the interior West and south-central Plains, with above-normal temperatures forecasted across the remainder of the U.S. The CFS forecast favors above-normal temperatures across all of the CONUS and Alaska, with below-normal temperatures limited to far southern Texas. The JMA forecast more closely resembles El Nino composites, with below-normal temperatures favored across the central and south-central U.S., and the Southeast.
The Week 3-4 temperature outlook is a blend of the CFS and ECMWF solutions, with a consideration of El Nino impacts. Above-median temperatures are favored across the Northwest, far northern Rockies, much of the northern Plains and Midwest, and almost everywhere east of the Mississippi except for the central Gulf Coast. The highest probabilities for above-median temperatures based on both model guidance and ENSO composites are from the northern Plains through the western Great Lakes region. Below-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Southern Plains. Across Alaska, greater chances for above-median temperatures are forecast, except across the North Slope.
There is also significant disagreement among the precipitation tools, with the CFS and JMA favoring above-median precipitation across California, and the ECMWF forecasting drier conditions. The CFS also depicts a pronounced dry signal extending from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a broad wet signal across the entire eastern half of the CONUS. The JMA solution generally lies between the CFS and ECMWF, and again resembles winter El Nino composites. All of the dynamical guidance favors below-normal precipitation across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains.
Based on the dynamical model guidance and ENSO composites, the Week 3-4 precipitation outlook favors above-median precipitation across Arizona and New Mexico, the southern Plains, and the entire eastern seaboard south of New England. While a greater than 50 percent chance of above-median precipitation is indicated along the Gulf Coast, equal chances for below or above-median precipitation were maintained across the remainder of the Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Enhanced chances for below-median precipitation are forecast across the northern and central Rockies, and the northern High Plains. Across Alaska, the only substantial precipitation signal among the dynamical models favors above-median precipitation across the southern coastline and the Panhandle.
For Hawaii, forecasts for above-normal SSTs and positive height anomalies generally favor above-median temperatures. Additionally, climate anomalies associated with El Nino favor suppressed rainfall, which is consistent with the dynamical model forecasts.
Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A60 B60
Kahului A60 B60
Honolulu A60 B60
Lihue A55 B55
Forecaster: Adam Allgood
The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Dec 04, 2015
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period
These are experimental two category outlooks and differ from official operational current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.
The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).
The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).
In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.
(about this experimental product: http://products.weather.gov/PDD/PDD_CPC ... tlooks.pdf )
Prognostic Discussion for Experimental Week 3-4 Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Nov 27 2015
Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Dec 12 2015-Fri Dec 25 2015
The RMM based MJO index continues to reflect amplitude over the Indian Ocean, but significant eastward propagation of the signal has not been established. The enhanced convective signal over the Indian Ocean appears to be relatively stationary, with other modes, including Kelvin Waves propagating out from the Indian Ocean and Equatorial Rossby Wave activity over the Pacific, causing most of the intraseasonal modulations to the ongoing strong El Nino background state. Therefore, climate anomalies associated with ENSO are the favored contribution from the global tropical pattern considered in this outlook.
There are substantial differences among the dynamical model 500-hPa height anomaly forecasts, with subsequent implications for the forecasted temperature and precipitation patterns. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA all depict large negative height anomalies centered near the Bering Sea and Aleutians, as well as above-normal heights over northeastern North America. The ECMWF forecasts ridging over the northeastern Pacific, with a downstream trough over the south-central CONUS. In contrast, the CFS depicts troughing over the northeastern Pacific, with near to above-normal heights across most of the CONUS.
Consistent with these forecasted height anomalies, the ECMWF-based probabilistic temperature forecast favors below-normal temperatures across much of the interior West and south-central Plains, with above-normal temperatures forecasted across the remainder of the U.S. The CFS forecast favors above-normal temperatures across all of the CONUS and Alaska, with below-normal temperatures limited to far southern Texas. The JMA forecast more closely resembles El Nino composites, with below-normal temperatures favored across the central and south-central U.S., and the Southeast.
The Week 3-4 temperature outlook is a blend of the CFS and ECMWF solutions, with a consideration of El Nino impacts. Above-median temperatures are favored across the Northwest, far northern Rockies, much of the northern Plains and Midwest, and almost everywhere east of the Mississippi except for the central Gulf Coast. The highest probabilities for above-median temperatures based on both model guidance and ENSO composites are from the northern Plains through the western Great Lakes region. Below-normal temperatures are favored across parts of the Southern Plains. Across Alaska, greater chances for above-median temperatures are forecast, except across the North Slope.
There is also significant disagreement among the precipitation tools, with the CFS and JMA favoring above-median precipitation across California, and the ECMWF forecasting drier conditions. The CFS also depicts a pronounced dry signal extending from the lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Great Lakes region, while the ECMWF has a broad wet signal across the entire eastern half of the CONUS. The JMA solution generally lies between the CFS and ECMWF, and again resembles winter El Nino composites. All of the dynamical guidance favors below-normal precipitation across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains.
Based on the dynamical model guidance and ENSO composites, the Week 3-4 precipitation outlook favors above-median precipitation across Arizona and New Mexico, the southern Plains, and the entire eastern seaboard south of New England. While a greater than 50 percent chance of above-median precipitation is indicated along the Gulf Coast, equal chances for below or above-median precipitation were maintained across the remainder of the Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Enhanced chances for below-median precipitation are forecast across the northern and central Rockies, and the northern High Plains. Across Alaska, the only substantial precipitation signal among the dynamical models favors above-median precipitation across the southern coastline and the Panhandle.
For Hawaii, forecasts for above-normal SSTs and positive height anomalies generally favor above-median temperatures. Additionally, climate anomalies associated with El Nino favor suppressed rainfall, which is consistent with the dynamical model forecasts.
Temperature Precipitation
FCST FCST
Hilo A60 B60
Kahului A60 B60
Honolulu A60 B60
Lihue A55 B55
Forecaster: Adam Allgood
The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Dec 04, 2015
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1981-2010 base period
These are experimental two category outlooks and differ from official operational current three category outlooks currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.
The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A) or below-normal (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).
The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-median (A) or below-median (B) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >50%) of this more likely category (above or below).
In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.
Please let it happen LOLtireman4 wrote:Interesting. This could be interesting..
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wxman57
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Bring on the heat, enough of this cold!
12Z GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of interesting weather across Texas through the 18th. Maybe a moderately strong cold front around the 15th. Could see near-freezing temperatures around then if it verifies. Little in the way of rain next 2 weeks. More sunshine, though.
12Z GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of interesting weather across Texas through the 18th. Maybe a moderately strong cold front around the 15th. Could see near-freezing temperatures around then if it verifies. Little in the way of rain next 2 weeks. More sunshine, though.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z ECMWF suggests a rather potent storm system developing in the longer range. Could be a significant weather maker across the Great Basin and Plains if the Euro is correct.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance is advertising a pattern conducive to an very unsettled regime developing later next week. While it is too soon to know the finer details this far out, such a pattern suggests a very unsettled and active weather pattern may develop next week as a return flow off the Gulf becomes established ahead of a very potent Western trough as well as moisture with embedded disturbances riding the SW flow aloft from the Eastern Pacific ahead of the organizing storm system across the Great Basin, the Rockies and eventually into the Southern/Central Plains later next week. We will need to monitor this sort of set up for the potential of severe weather in the warm sector and wintry mischief in the cold sector as what appears to be a very cold upper level disturbance organizes to our West.
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Point taken Srainhoutx - enjoy the sunshine and the warmth is has to offer the next few days. Temp dropped to 39 degrees for me this morning. Enjoying this nice cold crisp temps. Now to get a little sunshine today after a week of gray cloudy skies. Everyone have a great day!
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Katdaddy
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Beautiful weather to continue for the short term and beyond. Perhaps more active weather by next weekend but for now enjoy.
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From Dec 1.. "The longer range ECMWF Ensemble mean suggest the potential of a pattern change beginning in about 10 days. Something to keep an eye on the next week or so... "
Is this still a valid statement?
"Is this still a valid statement?
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Katdaddy
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Changes ahead:
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2015
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE U.S. MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH DAY 6 DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT
MIGHT EVOLVE FROM ERN TX INTO THE SERN STATES DAYS 7-8 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BEYOND DAY 6.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST FRI DEC 04 2015
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC
REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE U.S. MOST OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH DAY 6 DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT
MIGHT EVOLVE FROM ERN TX INTO THE SERN STATES DAYS 7-8 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE BEYOND DAY 6.
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srainhoutx
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A progressive split flow regime with a parade of Pacific Storm Systems bringing abundant moisture into the Pacific NW and Northern California will be the main weather makers in the upcoming week. Another cold front moves across Texas on Sunday with some clouds and cooler temperatures, it in this progressive pattern expect a return flow off the Gulf to return in earnest by mid to late next week along with warmer temperatures. The overnight ensemble guidance continues to suggest a very potent storm system organizing across the Great Basin, Intermountain West and Plains late next weekend, but there is a lot of uncertainty in the Day 7 & 8 Range as would be expected in a progressive pattern. It does appear that the storm system organizing next weekend to our West may be very strong and could support a very unsettled pattern as the upper air pattern amplifies and a deep trough buckles the jet stream. More on this potential Major Weather Maker as the coming week unfolds and the various computer guidance attempts to resolve the various features in the medium to longer range. Looking way out in the Day 10 to 15 range, there is the potential of a much more active weather period as the pattern continues to transition toward a Winter time weather regime.
Day 11-15 Range
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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the 06Z run of the GFS, 2 m temp, can be found here: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=
and precip type here: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=
conus view of precip rate/type for travelers: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... onus&dpdt=
that's hour 384, pretty far out, as far as it goes, but you can step it back in time to see other periods in this run's forecast, though not the exact time period posted earlier atm. should be interesting to watch this over time, just select the next run in the drop-down, upper left - panhandle sure looks cold...
and precip type here: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... r=sc&dpdt=
conus view of precip rate/type for travelers: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... onus&dpdt=
that's hour 384, pretty far out, as far as it goes, but you can step it back in time to see other periods in this run's forecast, though not the exact time period posted earlier atm. should be interesting to watch this over time, just select the next run in the drop-down, upper left - panhandle sure looks cold...
this winter forecast just looks rediculous...I need my cold!!
snowman65 wrote:this winter forecast just looks rediculous...I need my cold!!
Not sure what you mean.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS took a big step toward what the European model has been suggesting regarding our sensible weather pattern expected late next week into the weekend. The GFS had kept the upper trough rather progressive ~vs~ a digging 500mb upper low organizing across the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. The 12Z GFS has flipped to a much more dynamic which could pose a myriad of weather worries both in the warm and cold sector as the cold core upper low moves NE out of the Southern Rockies.
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my current forecast has a high of 80 for fri... wow...
some bits from wpc's long-term disco:
some bits from wpc's long-term disco:
- the deterministic models have not offered stellar run-run consistency
- the overall pattern should favor frontogeneis/cyclogenesis over the central us into early next week that should lead to favorable gulf moisture flow rebound with a threat of strong convection and locally heavy rains
- strengthening south winds at the end of the week in response to a deepening lee of the rockies surface low will allow for moisture levels to rise and give us a low chance of showers. will continue to indicate increasing shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as the surface low and associated cold front work their way across our area.
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