Morning Water Vapor imagery for the Northern Hemisphere is showing a big dip in the jet stream that has allowed the coldest air of the season to drop South into Texas. Del Rio tied a record low temperature reading this morning set back in 1906 of 31F with mid to upper 30's cross most of SE Texas N of I-10. A light freeze certainly look likely for the typical cold locations away from the Urban Heat Island of Metro Houston.
All eyes turn toward late next week into the weekend as the next shot of colder air dislodges from Western Canada dropping S into the Great Basin and the Plains. Heavy rainfall with potentially severe weather could accompany the Arctic front next Friday into Saturday. The worrisome part of the sensible weather forecast arrives next weekend as Tropical Cyclone Sandra nears the Baja Peninsula heading NE. There are also three areas of embedded disturbances heading E across the Pacific toward the West Coast as well as a robust cyclone heading toward the Bering Sea that should assist in sending the next shot of cold air South. The cold airmass looks to be shallow in nature and with abundant tropical moisture surging out of the Eastern Pacific and the Western Gulf, expect we will see a Coastal trough/low develop somewhere near Brownsville as the mid/upper level vorticity from remnants of TC Sandra move out of Mexico. Elevated thunderstorms with the potential of heavy rainfall look to increase next Friday possibly lasting into the hectic Thanksgiving Holiday return home next Sunday.
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harpman wrote:Thank you! Over here in New Orleans, but do pay lots of attention to your forum.
Glad you're still around following from SE Louisiana, harpman. We know a lot of folks follow well beyond SE Texas and we appreciate the confidence, encouragement as well as participants beyond our local Region.
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NWS has issued a Freeze Warning for along mainly along and NW of US 59 from midnight tonight until 800am Monday.
Surface high pressure will continue to result in clear skies and decreasing winds this evening which will go calm shortly after sunset. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 20’s and calm winds will lead to excellent cooling conditions tonight with temperatures falling toward the dewpoints. Wet grounds will result in some dewpoint rise overnight…toward the 30-32 range…but remain cold enough for a light freeze for many areas. Since this is the first freeze of the season…a freeze warning is required. Tender vegetation should be protected as this will effectively end the growing season NW of US 59.
Lows tonight will range from 29-32 in the freeze warning area including NW Harris County from Katy to Kingwood. Typical colder locations such as Conroe may fall into the 27-29 degree range. While not under the official freeze warning…the typical cold locations from Bay City to Angleton may hit freezing briefing early Monday morning.
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Clouds and moisture increase next week after a cold Monday morning across SE TX. Freeze Warnings in effect across Central and N portions of SE TX along and N of the I-10 corridor. Models show clouds and and showers along with warm temps for Thanksgiving. Next weekend remains interesting with the interaction of an EPAC TC and strong cold front across the Southern Plains.
The overnight guidance continues to advertise a complex and complicated forecast for the busy Thanksgiving Holiday travel period. Heavy snow and strong to possibly severe thunderstorm appears likely as well as heavy rainfall across most of Texas on N and E as a strong frontal boundary stalls offshore of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast later this week and a Coastal low organizes near Brownsville Saturday into Sunday. A blocky Rex pattern is suggested by the ensemble guidance meaning a pesky Western trough stays stuck across the Great Basin with additional storm system trekking E toward the West Coast. Across the Panhandle, the Permian Basin into portions of NW and Central Oklahoma there is a possibility of freezing rain throughout the weekend. The ensemble spread is very large regarding the eventual Eastern movement of the closed upper low to our West that leads to a very low confidence forecast.
To further complicate things, rich tropical moisture over run the shallow cool airmass at the surface from both the Western Gulf and the Eastern Pacific were tropical disturbance 91E is expected to become TD/TS Sandra and possibly develop into a Hurricane as it re curves toward the Southern Baja Peninsula this weekend. Heavy snow is likely across the Mountains of New Mexico with freezing rain or sleet possible across Eastern New Mexico into the Panhandle. Heavy elevated storms appear likely across portions of the Hill Country, N Central, SE, E and NE Texas into Western Louisiana and Arkansas as the mid/upper level moisture associated with the remnants of Sandra spreads NE out of Mexico. Those with travel plans returning back to Texas this weekend will need to monitor the weather closely this week as the sensible weather forecast becomes clearer. Safe travels to those heading out for the Thanksgiving Holidays and stay tuned to those staying home later this week.
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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
626 AM CST MON NOV 23 2015
...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS PAST 24 HOURS...
LOCATION TEMP TIME/DATE PROVIDER
...AUSTIN COUNTY...
1 SW BELLVILLE 29 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
9 ENE FAYETTEVILLE 30 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
SAN FELIPE 33 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 NE EAGLE LAKE 34 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
8 WNW SEALY 35 F 0510 AM 11/23 UPR
...BRAZORIA COUNTY...
2 E SWEENY 28 F 0450 AM 11/23 UPR
2 S BAILEY'S PRAIRIE 32 F 0455 AM 11/23 UPR
4 WNW WEST COLUMBIA 34 F 0547 AM 11/23 CWOP
BRAZORIA COUNTY AIRPORT 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
9 SE NEEDVILLE 35 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
9 SW JONES CREEK 35 F 0529 AM 11/23 RAWS
6 SSE DANBURY 36 F 0528 AM 11/23 RAWS
2 ENE FRESNO 36 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
CLOVER FIELD AIRPORT 37 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
4 E LIVERPOOL 38 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
1 W LAKE JACKSON 39 F 0100 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 NW FREEPORT 40 F 0400 AM 11/23 COOP
2 NE DANBURY 40 F 0435 AM 11/23 UPR
3 NW MANVEL 41 F 0200 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 SSE HILLCREST 49 F 0250 AM 11/23 UPR
...BRAZOS COUNTY...
COULTER FLD AP 32 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
2 SSE BRYAN 32 F 0600 AM 11/23 CWOP
EASTERWOOD FIELD AIRPORT 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
3 NW BRYAN 34 F 0440 AM 11/23 UPR
2 ESE BRYAN 35 F 0556 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 WSW COLLEGE STATION 36 F 0300 AM 11/23 TCEQ
7 W BRYAN 37 F 0210 AM 11/23 UPR
3 NW NAVASOTA 39 F 0230 AM 11/23 UPR
...BURLESON COUNTY...
4 NNW SOMERVILLE 31 F 0455 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 ENE CALDWELL 31 F 0450 AM 11/23 UPR
CALDWELL 32 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
6 NE DIME BOX 32 F 0505 AM 11/23 UPR
...CHAMBERS COUNTY...
3 SSW MONT BELVIEU 37 F 0604 AM 11/23 CWOP
...COLORADO COUNTY...
4 E WEIMAR 29 F 0235 AM 11/23 UPR
4 E WEIMAR 30 F 0604 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 E ELLINGER 30 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
7 NW EAGLE LAKE 30 F 0120 AM 11/23 UPR
COLUMBUS 31 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
6 NE EAGLE LAKE 33 F 0535 AM 11/23 RAWS
7 S WEIMAR 33 F 0440 AM 11/23 LCRA
5 W EAGLE LAKE 36 F 0525 AM 11/23 LCRA
...FORT BEND COUNTY...
3 SE KATY 33 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 WNW ARCOLA 33 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
5 W MISSION BEND 33 F 0551 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 ENE STAFFORD 33 F 0600 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 S PECAN GROVE 33 F 0450 AM 11/23 UPR
PECAN GROVE 34 F 0605 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 SE MISSOURI CITY 34 F 0601 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 SSE KATY 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 S KATY 34 F 0556 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 NE FULSHEAR 34 F 0306 AM 11/23 CWOP
SUGAR LAND MUN AP 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
4 SE KATY 35 F 0554 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NNW PECAN GROVE 35 F 0552 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 W STAFFORD 35 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
STAFFORD 35 F 0605 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 N PECAN GROVE 36 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 ENE FULSHEAR 37 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
ROSENBERG 37 F 0537 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 SW ROSENBERG 37 F 0553 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 SSE KATY 38 F 0558 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 SSE KATY 38 F 0552 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 SE RICHMOND 38 F 0337 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 W FIRST COLONY 40 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
...GALVESTON COUNTY...
2 WSW SANTA FE 34 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
LA MARQUE 34 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 WNW LA MARQUE 35 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 ENE HILLCREST 35 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 WSW LEAGUE CITY 37 F 0549 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 SW FRIENDSWOOD 37 F 0602 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 NNE LEAGUE CITY 37 F 0331 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 WSW CLEAR LAKE SHORES 37 F 0402 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 W KEMAH 39 F 0427 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 SW KEMAH 39 F 0444 AM 11/23 CWOP
TEXAS CITY 40 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 SE TEXAS CITY 43 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
1 SE WEBSTER 45 F 0400 AM 11/23 UPR
...GRIMES COUNTY...
8 SE NAVASOTA 34 F 0605 AM 11/23 CWOP
...HARRIS COUNTY...
4 NNW SHELDON 30 F 0425 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 SSW STAGECOACH 31 F 0545 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 S TOMBALL 31 F 0556 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 WNW CROSBY 32 F 0408 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 NW TOMBALL 32 F 0601 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 SE TOMBALL 33 F 0500 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NNE FRIENDSWOOD 33 F 0350 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 WSW SPRING 34 F 0517 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 ENE PEARLAND 34 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
DAVID WAYNE HOOKS MEMORIAL A 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
6 W SPRING 34 F 0542 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NNW WALLER 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 SE KATY 34 F 0539 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 WSW THE WOODLANDS 34 F 0433 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 NNW JERSEY VILLAGE 34 F 0456 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 SW TOMBALL 35 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 NNW HEDWIG VILLAGE 35 F 0443 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE 35 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE 35 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 W JERSEY VILLAGE 35 F 0609 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 SW TOMBALL 35 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 WSW JERSEY VILLAGE 35 F 0508 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 E KINGWOOD 35 F 0611 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 SW THE WOODLANDS 35 F 0553 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 S TOMBALL 35 F 0558 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 WSW SPRING 35 F 0541 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 WSW SPRING 35 F 0558 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 WSW JERSEY VILLAGE 36 F 0556 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 NW MISSION BEND 36 F 0547 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 NNE KINGWOOD 36 F 0605 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 NW SHELDON 36 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE 36 F 0602 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NNW WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE 36 F 0602 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 WNW TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE 36 F 0429 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 WSW JERSEY VILLAGE 36 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 NNE HOUSTON 36 F 0557 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 E JERSEY VILLAGE 36 F 0606 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NNW MISSION BEND 36 F 0552 AM 11/23 CWOP
PINEY POINT VILLAGE 36 F 0559 AM 11/23 CWOP
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL 36 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
5 SE HUMBLE 36 F 0435 AM 11/23 UPR
1 SSW CLOVERLEAF 37 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
1 ENE PASADENA 37 F 0200 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 NW SOUTH HOUSTON 37 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
7 N JERSEY VILLAGE 37 F 0604 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 S TOMBALL 37 F 0555 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 NNE JERSEY VILLAGE 37 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NNW WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE 37 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 SW WEBSTER 37 F 0606 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 ENE PEARLAND 37 F 0601 AM 11/23 CWOP
HUMBLE 37 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 NE HOUSTON 37 F 0430 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 SSW PINEY POINT VILLAGE 37 F 0606 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 W SPRING 37 F 0611 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 NW WEBSTER 37 F 0554 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 N HOUSTON 38 F 0400 AM 11/23 AIRNOW
3 ESE ALDINE 38 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
2 WSW BELLAIRE 38 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
4 E HIGHLANDS 38 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
3 W BELLAIRE 38 F 0559 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 WNW SPRING 38 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
WILLIAM P HOBBY AIRPORT 38 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
1 NNW DEER PARK 38 F 0320 AM 11/23 UPR
1 SE CHANNELVIEW 39 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
5 NE MISSOURI CITY 39 F 0200 AM 11/23 TCEQ
GALENA PARK 39 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
1 WSW GALENA PARK 39 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
3 NNW NASSAU BAY 39 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
WEBSTER 39 F 0410 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 S HOUSTON 39 F 0554 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 W BELLAIRE 39 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 WNW JERSEY VILLAGE 39 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 SSW PASADENA 39 F 0450 AM 11/23 AWOS
4 NNW ALDINE 39 F 0455 AM 11/23 UPR
2 NE MISSION BEND 40 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
3 SW GALENA PARK 40 F 0200 AM 11/23 TCEQ
4 WNW SOUTH HOUSTON 40 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
1 E JACINTO CITY 40 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
1 NNW WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE 40 F 0601 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NE WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE 41 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 NW CLOVERLEAF 44 F 0420 AM 11/23 UPR
...HOUSTON COUNTY...
CROCKETT 30 F 0530 AM 11/23 AWOS
1 S LATEXO 32 F 0510 AM 11/23 UPR
2 NNW LOVELADY 36 F 0445 AM 11/23 UPR
...JACKSON COUNTY...
4 SSE EDNA 35 F 0555 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 W LA WARD 35 F 0532 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 WNW LA WARD 35 F 0408 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 S LA WARD 36 F 0416 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 SE INEZ 36 F 0435 AM 11/23 UPR
2 W LA WARD 36 F 0455 AM 11/23 UPR
EDNA 37 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
GANADO 37 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
LA WARD 37 F 0427 AM 11/23 CWOP
7 S GANADO 38 F 0611 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 WSW LA WARD 38 F 0454 AM 11/23 CWOP
8 SSE LA WARD 38 F 0609 AM 11/23 CWOP
...LIBERTY COUNTY...
4 ENE CLEVELAND 32 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
3 NE SPLENDORA 32 F 0610 AM 11/23 CWOP
HARDIN 37 F 0420 AM 11/23 UPR
4 E DEVERS 39 F 0500 AM 11/23 UPR
4 W DEVERS 40 F 0505 AM 11/23 UPR
5 SW DAYTON 41 F 0440 AM 11/23 UPR
...MADISON COUNTY...
5 ENE MADISONVILLE 31 F 0557 AM 11/23 CWOP
...MATAGORDA COUNTY...
BAY CITY 34 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
15 S SWEENY 34 F 0500 AM 11/23 LCRA
9 W MARKHAM 35 F 0525 AM 11/23 LCRA
2 W BAY CITY 36 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
PALACIOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 36 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
5 WSW SWEENY 36 F 0450 AM 11/23 UPR
10 NNW PALACIOS 36 F 0505 AM 11/23 UPR
4 SE MARKHAM 40 F 0430 AM 11/23 UPR
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
3 NNW TOMBALL 29 F 0420 AM 11/23 UPR
CONROE LONE STAR EXEC ARPT 30 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
3 NW WOODLOCH 30 F 0310 AM 11/23 UPR
3 WNW CUT AND SHOOT 31 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
4 N TOMBALL 31 F 0558 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 N CUT AND SHOOT 31 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 ENE MONTGOMERY 32 F 0600 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 NW TOMBALL 32 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 ENE PINEHURST 32 F 0600 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 NNW SHENANDOAH 33 F 0603 AM 11/23 RAWS
3 E SPRING 34 F 0545 AM 11/23 CWOP
2 NE SPRING 34 F 0606 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 ENE CONROE 35 F 0400 AM 11/23 TCEQ
OAK RIDGE NORTH 35 F 0600 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 NW THE WOODLANDS 35 F 0602 AM 11/23 CWOP
1 WNW THE WOODLANDS 35 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 WNW THE WOODLANDS 35 F 0557 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 ENE MONTGOMERY 37 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
WOODBRANCH 43 F 0255 AM 11/23 UPR
...POLK COUNTY...
1 NE ONALASKA 30 F 0608 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 NNE LIVINGSTON 32 F 0510 AM 11/23 UPR
CORRIGAN 35 F 0430 AM 11/23 UPR
...SAN JACINTO COUNTY...
4 ESE RIVERSIDE 30 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
5 SSE COLDSPRING 33 F 0602 AM 11/23 RAWS
4 NNW COLDSPRING 34 F 0606 AM 11/23 CWOP
3 N COLDSPRING 34 F 0607 AM 11/23 CWOP
4 NE NORTH CLEVELAND 36 F 0345 AM 11/23 UPR
4 N COLDSPRING 38 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
...TRINITY COUNTY...
2 S TRINITY 38 F 0420 AM 11/23 UPR
...WALKER COUNTY...
4 N NEW WAVERLY 31 F 0350 AM 11/23 UPR
HUNTSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT 34 F 0553 AM 11/23 ASOS
...WALLER COUNTY...
6 W STAGECOACH 31 F 0553 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 SSW TODD MISSION 32 F 0603 AM 11/23 CWOP
8 N HEMPSTEAD 32 F 0450 AM 11/23 UPR
PRAIRIE VIEW 34 F 0300 AM 11/23 SCAN
...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
10 E BRENHAM 28 F 0545 AM 11/23 CWOP
6 WSW NAVASOTA 31 F 0514 AM 11/23 CWOP
BRENHAM 32 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
6 ESE BURTON 32 F 0158 AM 11/23 CWOP
...WHARTON COUNTY...
8 SE EAGLE LAKE 31 F 0353 AM 11/23 CWOP
WHARTON 32 F 0555 AM 11/23 AWOS
BOLING-IAGO 32 F 0533 AM 11/23 CWOP
9 WSW BOLING-IAGO 34 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
8 N GANADO 34 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
1 NE EAST BERNARD 35 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
6 WNW WHARTON 37 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
WHARTON 37 F 0600 AM 11/23 LCRA
2 NW EL CAMPO 38 F 0540 AM 11/23 LCRA
OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURE. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAL.
$$
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Models continue to show the next EPAC tropical cyclone recurving across MX and into TX which will add to the weather equation for Thanksgiving weekend.
91E is quickly developing and will likely be declared a Tropical Depression later today. The NHC just mentioned that Advisories could be initiated this afternoon or evening.
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Tropical Storm Sandra develops in the Eastern Pacific.
TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015
300 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015
The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized during
the past 6 hours, with a large curved convective cloud band with
tops colder than -80C and considerable lightning activity having
developed in the northern semicircle. In addition, a small CDO-like
feature has recently developed over the low-level center. The
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on blend of
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.9/43 kt
from UW-CIMMS ADT at 0600 UTC, and the improved convective
appearance since that time. This makes Sandra the 18th named storm
of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.
Sandra's initial motion is now 275/11 kt. During the next 3-4 days,
Sandra is forecast to gradually slow down as it moves around the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends
from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico westward across central Mexico.
On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward and
accelerate ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough that will be moving
eastward toward the western coasts of the United States and Baja
California. The NHC model guidance remains good agreement on this
developing steering flow scenario, and the official forecast track
lies close to the consensus model, TVCE.
The intensity forecast is a little less straightforward than the
track forecast. Only the HWRF model shows Sandra reaching an
intensity of 75 kt; all of the other guidance is below that value.
This is something of an enigma given that the cyclone will be (a)
moving over SSTs greater than 29C, (b) in a moist mid-level
environment consisting of humidity values greater than 75 percent,
and (c) in a very low vertical shear environment of less than 5 kt.
These three factors typically would result in rapid intensification,
especially since it appears that Sandra is in the process of
developing a tighter inner-core wind field. The GFS-based SHIPS
intensity model indicates that the main inhibiting factors are the
shear direction and warmer-than-average 200 mb temperatures.
However, the latter doesn't appear to be a factor given the very
cold cloud tops currently noted. The global models are all
forecasting a pronounced upper-level anticyclone and a favorable
outflow pattern to develop over Sandra in the 24-48 hour period,
which should negate the negative shear direction parameter. As a
result, at least climatological development is forecast through 48
hours. By day 4, strong southwesterly shear in excess of 30 kt is
expected to induce rapid weakening as Sandra recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, but now lies above all of the available
intensity guidance.
The last cool morning across SE TX until after Thanksgiving as increasing clouds and warming temps begin. Lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s approaching 80 for Thanksgiving. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thanksgiving day through the Thanksgiving weekend thanks to an active SW flow aloft and disturbances ahead of the next front which looks to move slowly across the area. Severe weather and flooding do not look to be threat for SE TX. Flooding could become a concern for portions of Central and NTX Thanksgiving weekend as the slow moving cold front combines with newly named TS Sandra's moisture from the EPAC.
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