October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djjordan
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Numerous water rescues in progress across the Houston metro this early morning. Harris County urges all residents to stay off the roads this morning.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
445 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 515 AM CDT

* AT 444 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LIVERPOOL...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF ALVIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
HILLCREST AROUND 455 AM CDT.
ALVIN AND SANTA FE AROUND 500 AM CDT.
SOUTHEASTERN PEARLAND...SOUTHWESTERN LEAGUE CITY...SOUTHWESTERN
FRIENDSWOOD AND DICKINSON AROUND 515 AM CDT.


OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CHOCOLATE BAYOU.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Katdaddy
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Just getting up to see a tornadic cell is approaching League City.
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djjordan
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd1905.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 526...

VALID 310946Z - 311145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 526 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z OVER SERN TX. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO SWRN LA
A BIT LATER THIS MORNING...AND COUNTIES CAN BE LOCALLY ADDED IF
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...GREATEST NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AND SOUTH OF THE HOUSTON VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN CORRIDOR OF
ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS SERN TX. THE ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY HOUSTON VWP
WHICH SHOWS THE LLJ HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KT CONTRIBUTING TO
250-300 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 75F
SUPPORTING 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SLOWLY NWD
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED OVER SWRN LA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ATTENDANT TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE ONSHORE AND INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Location: Montgomery, Texas
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Media Release: City of Houston Activates Emergency Operations Center in Response to Flooding, Tornado threat


Developing: #Danbury #TX: Trailers reported overturned, possible injuries after #tornado-warned storm (4:27 AM CDT)

From TXStormchasers

506AM: 1 minute radar data from Hobby TDWR showing very strong signs of a tornado about 4 miles south of Friendswood. Moving NE

From Jeff:

Lower Carpenters Bayou at I-10 has gone overbanks

From Jeff:

Rainfall nearing 7.0 inches in Crosby area in last 6 hrs.
Last edited by djjordan on Sat Oct 31, 2015 5:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
507 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 507 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FRIENDSWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SOUTHEASTERN PEARLAND AND WEBSTER AROUND 515 AM CDT.
WESTERN LEAGUE CITY...NASSAU BAY AND THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
AROUND 520 AM CDT.
SOUTH HOUSTON...CLEAR LAKE...SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...TAYLOR LAKE
VILLAGE...EL LAGO...ELLINGTON FIELD AND EDGEBROOK AREA AROUND 525
AM CDT.
LA PORTE...DEER PARK AND SHOREACRES AROUND 530 AM CDT.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Gator
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Location: Southeast Harris County (between Friendswood & I-45)
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That cell is hitting us in Friendswood right now. Rain is heavy and starting to get sideways.
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srainhoutx
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The Weather Prediction Center issues Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall for portions of SE Texas and SE Louisiana.
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Gator
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Location: Southeast Harris County (between Friendswood & I-45)
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Report of a tornado in Avonlea subdivision in Friendswood. Near 518 & FM 2351.
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srainhoutx
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mcd1906.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1906
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX AND SWRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 526...

VALID 310946Z - 311145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 526 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z OVER SERN TX. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO SWRN LA
A BIT LATER THIS MORNING...AND COUNTIES CAN BE LOCALLY ADDED IF
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...GREATEST NEAR-TERM THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AND SOUTH OF THE HOUSTON VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN CORRIDOR OF
ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS SERN TX. THE ACTIVITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY HOUSTON VWP
WHICH SHOWS THE LLJ HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KT CONTRIBUTING TO
250-300 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IS VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 75F
SUPPORTING 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SLOWLY NWD
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED OVER SWRN LA. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ATTENDANT TORNADO
THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS MOVE ONSHORE AND INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DIAL.. 10/31/2015
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jojotheidiotclown
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moms house just hit by tornado. 2351 near pearland airport. ripped off back sunroom addition to house and metal barn out back. my house in friendswood (528) ok but rain was damn loud with wind. all my kids freaked out. no electricity.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

Dangeorus supercells producing multiple tornadoes over Brazoria and now SE Harris County.

Two supercells have been producing damaging tornadoes. Multiple reports of extensive damage around Danbury and Friendswood. Possible injuries at a mobile home park in Brazoria County.

Strong line of storms to the west will be approaching with additional heavy rainfall and severe weather possible.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Gator
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Location: Southeast Harris County (between Friendswood & I-45)
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Confirmed Tornado in Friendswood. Homes destroyed. People trapped.
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Katdaddy
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Getting reports from Friendswood of tornado damage as well via Twitter and FB.
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srainhoutx
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From Jeff:

Large damaging tornado on the ground over SE Harris County.

Take maximum tornado precautions immediately in SE Harris County around Battleship TX NE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Poltracker
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I believe a tornado passed over my house in north Deer Park directly ssw of monument at 225. Very loud and rattled the house. The rubber material around the front door was sucked out and made the weirdest noise. All calm now.b
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srainhoutx
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Bow echo approaching Waller, NW Harris and Montgomery Counties. Heads up folks.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

Tornado and flash flood event in progress over SE TX.

Squall line approaching from the west with numerous thunderstorms developing and training over much of SE TX north of I-10. Additional very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches is likely on top of what has already fallen. Rainfall amounts across a large part of central and eastern Harris County have averaged between 5-8 inches in the last 6 hours. Additional rainfall will only worsen ongoing flooding problems and possibly send some bayous near bankfull out of banks. Street flooding continues to be widespread.

Tornado Threat:
Will continue with the tornado threat with supercells over SE Harris County. Storms have been producing some significant damage and supercell structures are very well defined on radar. Shear remains strong across area south of I-10 and the tornado threat remains.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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