October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[srainhoutx]

Over 4 inches in the gauge since 10:00AM this morning in NW Harris County and still falling moderate to heavy with gusty winds.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
808 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers...

South Mayde Creek Near Greenhouse Road affecting the following counties in
Texas...Harris


For Addicks Reservoir at Greenhouse Road, Minor flooding is forecasted.

Tropical moisture continues to stream into Southeast Texas. Additional
rainfall amounts of three to six inches are possible overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along these streams should keep alert to rising water and
take all precautions to protect their property. Do not drive or walk into
flooded areas the depth and water velocity could be too great for you to cross
safely. Motorists should avoid any water covered roads and find an alternate
route. Livestock and equipment should be removed from the flood plain
immediately.

[unome]

new feature ? http://www.harriscountyfws.org/ select "channel status" instead of "rainfall"

https://www.hcfcd.org/press-room/curren ... s-feature/

just saw a quick blurb about this on kprc, very cool !

1 out of bank: http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDeta ... =1&unit=dd

quite a few near top of bank

[srainhoutx]

Think locations E of Matagorda County on up to Bryan/College Station will continue the next several hours. Storms are developing and moving N out of the Gulf rather quickly and some are intensifying offshore. Long fetch moisture plume NE of the Coastal Low should see additional 3 to 8 inches with an isolated total along S to E of the HWY 59 Corridor.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood event underway over SE TX.

Large scale lifting of extremely moist air mass in progress over the area. Surface low pressure is clearly evident near Brownsville with a trough lifting north toward Matagorda Bay and this will help to focus the rainfall over SE TX nearly all night. Totals will pile up and see no reason to change any storm totals at this point which are still in the 8-12 inches range south of I-10 with isolated 15 inches possible.

Evening high tide is approaching and coastal flooding is in progress especially on Bolivar. Still expecting total water levels of 4-5 ft overnight.

Winds are increasing with the buoy 60 S of Freeport gusting to 31kts. Will continue to increase winds overnight with 30-40mph gust inland and sustained near 40mph offshore.

[davidiowx]

It does appear (at least to my eyes) the western edge of the rain has considerably slowed its progression to the east on the radar. Will be watching as the night goes on.

[Andrew]

Lower level convergence is increasing and the eastward progression of the drier air has decreased. Furthermore the progression and strengthening of the coastal low indicates that these showers and storms streaming in from the gulf should only intensify tonight. GFS shows a very strong band coming in later tonight into early morning.

[Ounce]

Rain in Needville at 1:30 - 0.5 inches. At 6:00 p.m. - 3.5 inches.

[ticka1]

Lower level convergence is increasing and the eastward progression of the drier air has decreased. Furthermore the progression and strengthening of the coastal low indicates that these showers and storms streaming in from the gulf should only intensify tonight. GFS shows a very strong band coming in later tonight into early morning.

i know this is a dumb question but how long will it take for all this to move out of the area?

[Andrew]

Lower level convergence is increasing and the eastward progression of the drier air has decreased. Furthermore the progression and strengthening of the coastal low indicates that these showers and storms streaming in from the gulf should only intensify tonight. GFS shows a very strong band coming in later tonight into early morning.

i know this is a dumb question but how long will it take for all this to move out of the area?

Most models indicate sometime tomorrow morning things should clear out. Most likely after 6am or so.

[unome]

looking pretty "tropical" south of Brownsville

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
835 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

AUSTIN TX-WASHINGTON TX-WALLER TX-COLORADO TX-GRIMES TX-MADISON TX-
835 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE RAIN DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN EARLIER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NAVASOTA...SEALY...HEMPSTEAD...BELLVILLE...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...
PINE ISLAND...BEDIAS...ANDERSON...IOLA...ALTAIR...CAT SPRING...
PLANTERSVILLE...SHERIDAN...ROCK ISLAND...GARWOOD...CARLOS AND ROANS
PRAIRIE.

[srainhoutx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
832 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

832 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
WATERS...

THE AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER OUT
20 NM...
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TX TO THE RIO GRANDE RIVER FROM 20 TO
60 NM...

AT 830 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS AND
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 19 NM EAST OF BOCA CHICA BEACH TO 36 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ISABEL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS.

[Cromagnum]

Is that mass by Brownsville the LLC from Patricia?

[djmike]

What do you guys see for the Beaumont area. Its been very light all day and no one has gotten atleast .50" yet. But the qpf has had beaumont bombed with 15"+ all day. Will the bulk that you guys are getting move eastward toward extreme setx tonight/tomorrow? Trying learn here and also trying to learn as to what I can report to my employees at a refinery for tomorrow. Long time reader here. Dont post much. Thank you guys so much in advance. Love this forum. Mike

[Andrew]

What do you guys see for the Beaumont area. Its been very light all day and no one has gotten atleast .50" yet. But the qpf has had beaumont bombed with 15"+ all day. Will the bulk that you guys are getting move eastward toward extreme setx tonight/tomorrow? Trying learn here and also trying to learn as to what I can report to my employees at a refinery for tomorrow. Long time reader here. Dont post much. Thank you guys so much in advance. Love this forum. Mike

All the rain should eventually begin to shift eastward as we progress throughout the night. Still expect a lot of rain throughout much of eastern Texas as the low tracks across the Northeast and slowly strengthens. Of course the heaviest precip will remain closer to the coast.

[unome]

"channel status" is a great improvement on their website, another stream out of bank

Fort Bend County, 4520: Ditch A Outfall
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/4520

[djmike]

Thank you Andrew!!!

[davidiowx]

"channel status" is a great improvement on their website, another stream out of bank

Fort Bend County, 4520: Ditch A Outfall
http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDetail/Index/4520

Wow didn't realize they had this now.. Where is this ditch at the top of banks located? I will need to go through that site and learn the areas. Thanks for the info unome!

[unome]

in case anyone missed it, Josh Morgerman made a long post on his iCyclone facebook page, harrowing

https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone/posts ... 15334597:0

[PaulEInHouston]

Little over 2.1" here in League City. Personally think the 2 distinct lows are slowly converging but remnant of Patricia is moving farther East and faster offshore than forecast. Front is into the Gulf over South Texas and believe will assist keeping the low more offshore and ending significant additional rain chances by early morning tomorrow. Recent model runs suggest system moving much quicker than originally thought as well.