October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

[Rip76]

David, we must be looking at different radars.
I see plenty west of Sugarland.

[davidiowx]

Rip,

I am looking at this one:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-24

I am just curious as to if it is going to fill in more out west or if the boundary may have arrived a little earlier than anticipated. I guess we will have to wait and see.

[DoctorMu]

7.3 in IMBY for this even in CLL. Folks can't be too concerned from College Station to Houston to Victoria as the inflow from the coastal low/ghost of Patricia flushes a firehose of more precipitation towards the area overnight.

[srainhoutx]

Flash Flood Warning coming for the Houston area.

[TexasBreeze]

The back edge of the rainshield is making steady progress to the east seen in the clearing area to the west.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

[srainhoutx]

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
704 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
704 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS CONTINUING
THROUGH 830 PM...

A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WIL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLINDING RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ZERO...GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST UP TO 30 KNOTS...AND
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OUT. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED.

BOATERS SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN OFF THE WATER THIS EVENING.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE THUNDERSTORM LINE WITH
SUSTAINED SPEED OF 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE...AND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 KNOTS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY.

[Stormrider]

Had heavy shower in Galvesston around 5pm. Some ponding on Broadway and Seawall Boulevard. A few surfers were out (not a good idea). Light to moderate rain is occuring now. Concerned about the possible 9-12 inches along the coast. Plan to up awhile. Keep the coffee hot and strong.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 1 PM. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...SUGAR LAND...BAYTOWN...MISSOURI
CITY...GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS
CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...EASTERN ROSENBERG...
LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...DICKINSON...STAFFORD...SOUTH
HOUSTON AND BELLAIRE.

HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT REPORTED THAT 20 ROADWAYS HAD
HIGH WATER. RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ADD TO THE
FLOODING.

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning issued for Harris County

Rainfall 2-3 inches across the county with numerous roadways now having high water (at least 20). Additional rainfall quickly filling into the southwest over Matagorda and Fort Bend Counties. Watersheds are responding to the heavy rainfall with rises in progress. Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches over the next few hours is likely across much of Harris County. Matagorda County is reporting 30-40% of the streets in Palacios are covered with water.

High tide is approaching and there is some coastal flooding in the Clear Lake and Shoreacres area and on Bolivar.

[Rip76]

The back edge of the rainshield is making steady progress to the east seen in the clearing area to the west.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... R&loop=yes

Wow, no kidding.
I guess I didn't refresh my radar.

[Stormrider]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EASTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN SINCE 1 PM. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...SUGAR LAND...BAYTOWN...MISSOURI
CITY...GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS
CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...EASTERN ROSENBERG...
LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...ANGLETON...DICKINSON...STAFFORD...SOUTH
HOUSTON AND BELLAIRE.

HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT REPORTED THAT 20 ROADWAYS HAD
HIGH WATER. RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ADD TO THE
FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

[Andrew]

That western edge is no longer moving east as the surface low tracks towards the northeast. I still think areas around the Galveston region or just west of there will see the most precipitation.

[Cromagnum]

Way overblown on the rain prediction. I live south of Houston where 12-15 inches were predicted. Ive seen barely 1.5 inches so far.

[Andrew]

Way overblown on the rain prediction. I live south of Houston where 12-15 inches were predicted. Ive seen barely 1.5 inches so far.

Main event isn't until tonight

[srainhoutx]

Coastal Low is really beginning to wrap up now. Upper trough and attending shortwave over New Mexico is lifting NE. Should see the frontal boundary slow in response to cyclogenesis near Brownsville.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/25/15 0048Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 IR 0015Z KC
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE
DAY SHOW MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS OFF THE S COAST OF TX WITH A LARGE
SW TO NE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN NE MEXICO WITH IMPRESSIVE CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES OF -80C+ SEEN IN IR IMAGERY. SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LVL
DIFFLUENCE ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS AND NOAA/NSSL DIVERGENCE PRODUCT WAS
NOTED OVER SE TX IN TANDEM WITH THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO
A STRONG UPPER LVL JET (GOES SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED 160KT JET
CORE OVER E IA). IN ADDITION TO THESE STRONG DYNAMIC FEATURES PROVIDING
UVV THE BEST SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH AN AXIS
RUNNING FROM JUST E OF CRP ALL ALONG THE GULF COAST TO E LA. REGIONAL
VWPS AT CRP SHOW VEERING WINDS AT 85H AS THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THE 85H WINDS AT IAH ARE BACKING
AND INCREASING TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SE AIDING IN LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH
MERGERS AND TRAINING OCCURRING OVER 8R8. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FOR BEST RAIN RATES (2"-3"/HR) TO OCCUR IN THIS REGION AS CONVECTION
DRIVES TO THE NNE. WITH THE ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE
PRESENT ACROSS NW GULF/SE TX/S LA AS SEEN IN THE EXPERIMENTAL CIRA
LAYERED PW PRODUCT EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT
RAINFALL RATES WHERE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN
IR IMAGERY WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOTED NEAR SGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SIGNIFICANT EVENT PLEASE REFER TO UPCOMING WPC MPD AND QPFERD.

[davidiowx]

Thanks Andrew and Srain. So I guess it depends on where the boundary slows down in response to the low developing? The low sure does look to be getting itself together rather quickly. What do y'all think will end up happening? More rain further east than anticipated? The HRRR seems to think this isn't going away anytime soon.

[Electric Lizard]

Is the kink in the squall line on the Brownsville radar (http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes) a good indication for the location of the low? It does seem to be moving more east than north.

[srainhoutx]

SPC continues Slight Risk for SE Texas and SW Louisiana.

[Gator]

My backyard rain gauge was emptied this morning before the rain started. It's now showing exactly 2 inches as of 8 PM CDT. It's just been a steady rain most of the day, very light at first and gradually getting heavier here near Clear Brook High School.